Argentina Shows Progress but Still Lacks Momentum Beyond Finance and Mining

Argentina’s economy continues to show signs of stabilization but has not yet secured broad-based growth. According to the private General Activity Index published by Orlando J. Ferreres & Asociados, activity fell 1 percent in July compared to June.

Even so, activity remains 0.3 percent above December 2024 levels, and year-on-year July growth reached 3.6 percent, bringing the January–July cumulative increase to 6 percent.

These results underline both the advances and the difficulties of Argentina’s recovery. On one hand, the government of President Javier Milei has slowed inflation dramatically.

Monthly price growth fell from more than 25 percent in December 2023 to 1.9 percent in July 2025. Fiscal accounts have moved closer to balance, and sectors such as construction and mining have begun to recover.

Compared to the sharp decline of 2023, today’s numbers show a country that has avoided collapse and returned to modest expansion. On the other hand, the economy still lacks momentum.

July’s contraction marked the second-worst monthly decline in over a year, revealing how difficult it is to maintain steady growth. Sector performance remains uneven. Finance expanded by more than 20 percent year on year, and mining grew about 11 percent.

Construction rose roughly 5 percent after a steep downturn. Yet manufacturing fell 2.4 percent year on year, with weakness in food and autos, while agriculture and electricity also contracted.

These sectors employ more workers and drive consumer activity, so their struggles weigh heavily on overall progress. Official figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses confirm the slowdown.

June activity rose 6.4 percent compared with a year earlier but slipped 0.7 percent against May. Currency volatility and high interest rates also continue to restrain demand.

The story behind the numbers is one of two speeds. Stabilization policies have begun to work: inflation is down, external confidence is up, and some industries are moving forward.

But the gains have not yet translated into broad growth that spreads across households and jobs. For investors and citizens alike, the next phase will depend on whether Argentina can turn stabilization into durable expansion.

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