Argentina’s 1.9% Inflation and Your Budget
ARGENTINA · EXPATS & NOMADS
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, whose peso prices rise month after month, so every expat budget there needs a yearly inflation check.
- —The numbers Consumer prices rose 1.9% in September 2026 and 33.4% over 12 months, according to INDEC, the statistics institute.
- —The pressure points Housing, water, electricity and gas rose 3.1% in the month, and education 3.0%; restaurants and hotels rose 1.1%.
- —Why now INDEC published the September figure on Tuesday 13 October, after 1.7% in August.
- —What it means for you Utilities and school fees rose fastest; at the official sell rate of 1,535 pesos per dollar, one million pesos is about US$651.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket prices Argentina’s annual inflation for 2026 at 30.0% to 34.9% with 64.9% probability (US$79,918 traded; 14 October, 00:52 ET).
- —Still open Whether October stays near 1.7%, as the central bank’s analyst survey expects, and how rents move.
Argentina’s consumer prices rose 1.9% in September 2026, up from 1.7% in August, INDEC reported on Tuesday 13 October. Over 12 months, prices are 33.4% higher.
For foreigners who pay their costs in pesos, a rise of that size changes a household budget within a season. Here is where the increases landed and what to watch next.
What INDEC Reported
INDEC’s figure matched the 1.9% that the central bank’s analyst survey (REM, Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado) had expected, according to Infobae. August’s 1.7% was the lowest monthly rate in 14 months, so September is a step up, not a surprise.
The accumulated rise from January to September is 23.6%. If the 1.9% pace repeated for twelve months, prices would rise about 25%, which shows why the monthly number matters for planning.
Where Prices Rose Most
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels led with 3.1%, according to INDEC via Perfil. Education rose 3.0%.
| Category | September rise |
|---|---|
| Housing, water, electricity, gas | 3.1% |
| Education | 3.0% |
| Seasonal items (vegetables, legumes) | 2.9% |
| Regulated prices (gas, electricity, health plans) | 2.3% |
| Core inflation (excludes seasonal and regulated) | 1.7% |
| Clothing and footwear | 1.4% |
| Restaurants and hotels | 1.1% |
Seasonal items rose 2.9% and regulated prices 2.3%, while core inflation, which strips both out, was 1.7%. Analysts quoted by Infobae said the acceleration came mainly from volatile items and tariffs, not from underlying price trends.
Regions differ. Greater Buenos Aires and the Pampas region rose 2.0% and Patagonia 1.4%, the lowest, according to Infobae.
What It Means for Your Budget
Utility bills and school fees rose fastest, and those are the costs that foreign families feel first. Restaurants and hotels rose 1.1%, the smallest rise in the table, which is easier on visitors than on residents paying bills.
At the official Banco Nación sell rate of 1,535 pesos per dollar, ARS 1,000,000 is about US$651. The blue (informal) rate sold at 1,550 on Tuesday evening, about 1.0% above the official rate, and the CCL (contado con liquidación, a rate for dollars bought through securities) sold at 1,613.8, about 5.1% above, according to DolarApi.
Our news report on the figure has the market reaction. Check the rate your landlord or bank actually uses before you convert a peso price.
What Markets and Analysts Expect
The REM survey expects about 1.7% for October, according to Infobae. That is a forecast by named analysts, not a result.
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, traders price Argentina’s annual inflation for 2026 at 30.0% to 34.9% with a probability of 64.9%, and 25.0% to 29.9% at 30.0% (US$79,918 traded; 14 October, 00:52 ET). These are bets, not forecasts by officials.
What Prediction Markets Say
Argentina’s 2026 inflation. Polymarket prices the year’s annual inflation at 30.0% to 34.9% at 64.9% and 25.0% to 29.9% at 30.0% (US$79,918 traded). Stand: 14 October, 00:52 ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We do not know October’s figure, which INDEC publishes in November. We also cannot say how rents moved, because the sources we read give only category averages.
Inflation in Argentina has eased from far higher levels and moves in waves. The next few releases will show whether September was a bump or a turn.
More: Argentina news in English, every day from The Rio Times. Also in today’s LatAm Expat & Nomad Daily Guide.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Argentina’s inflation in September 2026?
INDEC reported on Tuesday 13 October 2026 that consumer prices rose 1.9% in September, after 1.7% in August. Prices were 33.4% higher than a year earlier and 23.6% higher than in December 2025.
Which prices rose most in September?
Housing, water, electricity and gas rose 3.1%, and education 3.0%. Restaurants and hotels rose 1.1%, the smallest increase among the categories listed here.
What do analysts expect for October?
The central bank’s survey of analysts, the REM, expects about 1.7% for October, according to Infobae. That is a forecast, and INDEC publishes the October figure in November.
Sources: INDEC (September 2026 consumer prices) via Infobae and Perfil, 13 October 2026; central bank REM survey via Infobae, 13 October 2026; DolarApi (official, blue and CCL quotes, 13 October 2026); Polymarket (prediction market, 14 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
In depth
Expat Guide to Argentina
What The Rio Times publishes for foreigners who live in or move to Argentina.
Start here
- Argentina Security and Crime Explained 2026
- Argentina Money Guide for US Travelers
- Best Places to Live in Argentina for Expats 2026
- How to Open a Bank Account in Argentina as a Foreigner in 2026: Tax ID, Dollars, Apps
City guides
Coming up in Argentina
- Los Pericos Gran Rex Concert Set for 22 October 2026 in Argentina 22 Oct
- Mendoza Things to Do, 9 to 31 October 2026 31 Oct
- Mar del Plata Film Festival 2026: 5 to 15 November 5 Nov
- Primavera Sound Buenos Aires 2026: Gorillaz, The Strokes to Headline 28 Nov
Understand Argentina