Argentina’s borrowing risk climbed sharply in the days around the US midterm elections of Tuesday 3 November 2026, in which President Donald Trump’s party suffered heavy losses. The move matters to US investors because it reprices the dollar bonds and New York-listed shares of a country that Washington backed with a US$20 billion currency swap in 2025.
- Risk gauge: Argentina’s “riesgo país”, its bond risk premium, closed at 939 basis points on Friday 6 November.
- Week’s move: The gauge stood at 787 points a week earlier, on 30 October.
- US backing: Washington finalised a US$20 billion currency swap with Argentina’s central bank in October 2025.
- Government line: Deputy Economy Minister José Luis Daza says US interest in Argentina outlasts any party.
- Power Index: Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 60.2 points (November 2026 edition).
- As of 7 November 2026, 15:00 GMT
What Is Riesgo País?
Riesgo país, Spanish for “country risk”, is the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentina’s dollar bonds instead of US Treasury bonds. It is tracked by the JPMorgan EMBI index, a benchmark for emerging-market government debt.
A reading of 939 basis points means Argentina pays 9.39 percentage points more than the US government to borrow in dollars. The higher the number, the more expensive it is for Argentina, and for its companies, to raise money abroad.
What Happened to the Spread
The gauge closed at 787 basis points on Friday 30 October and 805 on Monday 2 November, the day before the vote. It then climbed to 831 on Tuesday 3 November and 852 on Wednesday 4 November.
On Thursday 5 November it jumped 8.6% to 925, and on Friday 6 November it ended at 939. That is 152 points above the previous Friday’s close.
The timing may reflect several worries, though no official source ties the rise to one cause. One is that a Congress controlled by Democrats could leave the Trump administration less room to help Argentina, while another is a fall of about 10% in Brazil’s real after President Lula’s re-election.
What Was Said in Buenos Aires
The 16th Abeceb Forum, a yearly conference run by a Buenos Aires economics consultancy, took place on Thursday 5 November 2026. Speakers included Daza, a central bank vice-president, Vladimir Werning, and Gary Litman, a senior vice president for global initiatives at the US Chamber of Commerce.
Daza said US interest in Argentina goes beyond whichever party is in power. He pointed to energy and critical minerals, naming copper, which is key to electrification, and uranium.
Daza also described the RIGI, an incentive regime for very large investments. He said projects worth about US$75 billion have been approved.
Litman warned that with an adverse Congress the Trump administration will have less room to rescue economies in crisis. Daza, by contrast, said the world Argentina is entering is positive for Argentina and more durable than changes in political colour.
The US Backing
In October 2025 the US Treasury, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, finalised a US$20 billion swap with Argentina’s central bank. In such a swap line the Treasury exchanges dollars for pesos with the central bank, which helps it defend its reserves.
Whether a new Congress would try to limit such support is not known. Daza argued that Washington’s interest in Argentina outlasts the political cycle.
What It Means for You
Holders of Argentine dollar bonds and US-listed Argentine shares should expect sharper swings while the market tests how far Washington will go. A lower reading would signal that investors again trust Argentina to service its debt.
The government of President Javier Milei has relied on both foreign investment and US political goodwill. Companies with Argentine exposure would feel any change first through the cost of dollar financing.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the new Congress will try to restrict support for Argentina once it takes office in January 2027. Nor is it clear whether the Treasury would offer new support if Argentina needed it.
The speed at which approved RIGI projects turn into spending is also uncertain. A steady fall in the spread would be the clearest sign that investors are comfortable.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Argentina’s riesgo país?
It is the extra yield investors demand on Argentina’s dollar bonds over US Treasuries, measured in basis points. At 939 on 6 November 2026, it means a premium of 9.39 percentage points.
Why did it rise around the US midterms?
Investors may fear that Washington has less room to help Argentina in a crisis after Trump’s losses, among other worries. No official source has tied the move to one cause.
What is the RIGI?
It is Argentina’s incentive regime for large investments, known as RIGI. Daza says projects worth about US$75 billion have been approved.
Who is Vladimir Werning?
He is a vice-president of Argentina’s central bank. He spoke at the Abeceb Forum on capital, debt and financing.
Sources: Abeceb Forum programme (https://foroabeceb.com/); Argentine Ministry of Economy (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/economia); Central Bank of Argentina (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/); US Treasury (https://home.treasury.gov/); US Chamber of Commerce (https://www.uschamber.com/); JPMorgan EMBI spread closes, 30 October to 6 November 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.