IBOV 177,547.57 ▲ 2.44% IPSA 11,009.22 ▲ 0.50% IPC MEX 67,298.78 ▲ 0.88% MERVAL 3,379,771 ▲ 2.98% COLCAP 2,297.00 ▼ 0.19% BVL PERÚ 57,575.02 — — USD/BRL5.04▼ 0.21% USD/MXN17.42▲ 0.14% USD/CLP937.27▲ 0.17% USD/COP3,212▼ 0.47% USD/PEN3.39▼ 0.30% USD/ARS1,482▼ 0.03% USD/UYU40.14▲ 1.07% USD/PYG6,035▲ 1.50% USD/BOB10.95▲ 2.82% USD/DOP57.92▼ 0.14% USD/CRC447.42▲ 1.36% USD/GTQ7.62▲ 2.31% USD/HNL26.74▲ 0.88% USD/NIO36.62▲ 0.31% USD/VES736.04▼ 0.13% USD/PAB1.00— 0.00% USD/BZD2.00— 0.00% USD/JMD157.49▲ 0.36% USD/TTD6.71▲ 0.76% EUR/BRL5.76▼ 0.61% BRENT 97.26 ▲ 3.39% WTI 89.22 ▲ 2.75% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.46 ▲ 0.10% GOLD 4,110 ▼ 0.88% SILVER 59.33 ▼ 1.15% SOY 1,244 ▲ 0.87% CORN 487.00 ▲ 5.41% WHEAT 707.00 ▲ 0.18% COFFEE 318.05 ▼ 4.19% SUGAR 14.75 ▼ 0.87% ORANGE JUICE 147.50 ▲ 2.57% COTTON 81.36 ▲ 3.04% COCOA 5,353 ▼ 4.53% BEEF 219.20 ▼ 3.30% CATTLE 336.15 ▼ 3.83% LITHIUM 69.00 ▼ 0.12% PETR4 42.58 ▲ 2.21% VALE3 75.10 ▲ 3.96% ITUB4 42.90 ▲ 0.87% BBDC4 18.97 ▲ 2.26% ABEV3 16.13 ▲ 2.09% BBAS3 21.09 ▲ 1.01% B3SA3 15.90 ▲ 4.81% WEGE3 46.74 ▲ 10.05% PRIO3 59.77 ▲ 2.73% SUZB3 42.66 ▲ 2.47% RENT3 37.14 ▲ 1.61% AZZA3 17.81 ▲ 1.89% CSAN3 3.92 ▲ 3.70% RAIZ4 0.27 — 0.00% PCAR3 2.75 ▲ 0.73% GMAT3 3.91 ▲ 2.09% PSSA3 55.45 ▲ 3.68% CVCB3 1.27 ▲ 13.39% POSI3 3.70 ▲ 0.54% SLCE3 13.96 ▲ 1.53% NATU3 8.68 ▼ 0.34% BRKM5 6.07 ▲ 6.30% RANI3 8.00 ▲ 1.39% CSNA3 5.38 ▲ 6.32% CMIN3 5.84 ▲ 4.66% USIM5 8.65 ▲ 2.25% GGBR4 24.06 ▲ 2.43% ENEV3 25.97 ▲ 2.16% CPFE3 46.71 ▲ 0.67% CMIG4 11.21 ▲ 1.72% EQTL3 39.35 ▲ 1.34% LREN3 13.54 ▲ 2.03% VIVT3 35.38 ▼ 1.17% RAIL3 13.64 ▲ 3.02% KLABIN 17.93 ▲ 1.93% RAIA DROGASIL 18.29 ▲ 0.88% RDOR3 34.49 ▲ 1.68% HAPV3 11.39 ▲ 1.33% FLRY3 16.65 ▲ 0.60% SMTO3 16.05 ▲ 3.02% UGPA3 32.83 ▲ 3.17% VBBR3 34.98 ▲ 3.03% BBSE3 42.58 ▲ 2.48% BPAC11 57.02 ▲ 2.98% CURY3 30.20 ▲ 0.83% AERI3 2.05 ▲ 0.49% VIVARA 21.55 ▲ 0.65% COMPASS 24.81 ▲ 1.51% VAMOS 3.23 ▲ 4.53% SANB11 26.95 ▼ 0.96% ASAI3 8.40 ▲ 1.82% SBSP3 29.29 ▲ 2.41% WALMEX 48.65 ▼ 1.02% GMEXICO 214.34 ▲ 2.57% FEMSA 227.98 ▲ 0.55% CEMEX 22.17 ▲ 0.45% GFNORTE 191.99 ▲ 3.33% BIMBO 60.30 ▲ 1.53% TELEVISA 9.82 ▲ 0.61% AMX 22.70 ▼ 0.26% GAP 378.40 ▼ 0.03% ASUR 273.53 ▼ 0.52% OMA 229.62 ▲ 1.49% KOF 182.55 ▲ 1.15% GRUMA 280.45 ▼ 0.76% KIMBER 38.85 ▲ 1.17% SQM-B 65,055 ▲ 0.80% COPEC 6,550 ▲ 1.55% BSANTANDER 79.85 ▲ 1.06% FALABELLA 6,042 ▲ 2.08% ENELAM 84.53 — 0.00% CENCOSUD 2,010 ▼ 0.89% CMPC 1,070 ▼ 1.28% BANCO CHILE 193.50 ▲ 1.84% LATAM AIR 24.09 ▼ 0.45% YPF 82,500 ▲ 2.33% GGAL 8,275 ▲ 3.89% PAMPA 5,625 ▲ 2.74% TXAR 668.50 ▼ 1.55% ALUAR 974.00 ▲ 0.10% TGS 9,905 ▲ 2.01% CEPU 2,411 ▲ 3.03% MIRGOR 16,925 ▲ 0.89% COME 43.14 ▲ 0.63% LOMA NEGRA 3,823 ▲ 6.03% BYMA 295.00 ▲ 0.94% TELECOM ARG 4,420 ▲ 3.88% ECOPETROL 16.69 ▲ 0.97% BANCOLOMBIA 84.66 ▲ 1.22% GRUPO AVAL 5.04 ▼ 0.98% CREDICORP 393.43 ▲ 0.60% SOUTHERN COPPER 195.48 ▲ 3.97% BUENAVENTURA 32.09 ▲ 2.69% MERCADOLIBRE 1,799 ▼ 1.29% NUBANK 14.51 ▲ 0.83% XP 17.30 ▲ 2.67% PAGSEGURO 9.67 ▲ 0.94% STONE 11.36 ▲ 0.93% GLOBANT 30.67 ▼ 4.45% TECNOGLASS 45.24 ▲ 0.20% GAP AIRPORT 217.70 ▲ 0.01% ASUR 273.53 ▼ 0.52% OMA AIRPORT 105.35 ▲ 1.07% AMX ADR 26.12 ▲ 0.12% FEMSA ADR 130.96 ▲ 0.47% CEMEX ADR 12.74 ▲ 0.32% PETROBRAS ADR 18.89 ▲ 1.89% VALE ADR 14.85 ▲ 4.21% ITAU ADR 8.48 ▲ 0.95% SANTANDER BR 5.45 ▲ 0.74% AMBEV ADR 3.14 ▲ 0.96% CSN 1.09 ▲ 9.00% GERDAU 4.77 ▲ 2.69% LATAM ADR 51.22 ▼ 0.68% BTC 65,405 ▼ 1.05% ETH 1,916 ▼ 0.93% SOL 77.11 ▼ 1.02% XRP 1.13 ▼ 0.87% BNB 568.68 ▼ 0.36% ADA 0.17 ▼ 0.87% DOGE 0.07 ▼ 0.98% AVAX 6.54 ▼ 1.16% LINK 8.53 ▼ 1.06% DOT 0.82 ▼ 1.70% LTC 46.92 ▼ 0.32% BCH 215.60 ▼ 1.99% TRX 0.33 ▲ 0.10% XLM 0.18 ▼ 1.85% HBAR 0.07 ▲ 0.70% NEAR 1.86 ▼ 0.27% ATOM 1.46 ▼ 0.38% AAVE 96.85 ▼ 0.52% SELIC 14.25% EMBRAER 83.79 ▲ 1.38% EMBRAER ADR 66.05 ▲ 0.89% JBS 12.25 ▲ 2.51% JBS BDR 61.80 ▲ 2.62% MBRF3 16.03 ▲ 6.09% MBRFY 3.19 ▲ 8.14% INTER 5.69 ▲ 1.97% EGX 53,932 ▼ 0.11% USD/ZAR16.42▲ 0.16% USD/NGN 1,370 — 0.00% NIKKEI 66,423 ▲ 0.46% CSI300 4,724 ▲ 0.15% HSI 25,210 ▲ 1.27% NIFTY 23,897 ▼ 0.41% KOSPI 7,097 ▲ 4.40% JCI 6,426 ▲ 1.44% USD/JPY163.14— 0.00% USD/CNY6.77▼ 0.06% DAX 25,155 — 0.00% CAC 8,438 ▲ 0.89% FTSE 10,717 — 0.00% MIB 52,792 ▲ 0.97% IBEX 19,571 ▲ 0.99% STOXX 646.93 ▲ 0.58% EUR/USD1.14▲ 0.13% GBP/USD1.34— 0.00% SPX 7,499 ▼ 0.14% DJI 52,219 ▼ 0.01% NDX 28,998 ▼ 0.54% RUT 2,960 ▼ 0.92% TSX 35,485 ▲ 0.33% VIX 16.64 ▼ 2.40% USD/CAD1.41▼ 0.18% US10Y 4.6570 ▲ 0.63% IBOV 177,547.57 ▲ 2.44% IPSA 11,009.22 ▲ 0.50% IPC MEX 67,298.78 ▲ 0.88% MERVAL 3,379,771 ▲ 2.98% COLCAP 2,297.00 ▼ 0.19% BVL PERÚ 57,575.02 — — USD/BRL 5.04 ▼ 0.21% USD/MXN 17.42 ▲ 0.14% USD/CLP 937.27 ▲ 0.17% USD/COP 3,212 ▼ 0.47% USD/PEN 3.39 ▼ 0.30% USD/ARS 1,482 ▲ 0.30% USD/UYU 40.14 ▲ 1.07% USD/PYG 6,035 ▲ 1.50% USD/BOB 10.95 ▲ 3.79% USD/DOP 57.92 ▼ 0.14% USD/CRC 447.42 ▲ 1.35% USD/GTQ 7.62 ▲ 2.27% USD/HNL 26.74 ▲ 1.52% USD/NIO 36.62 ▲ 0.31% USD/VES 736.04 ▼ 0.04% USD/PAB 1.00 — 0.00% USD/BZD 2.00 — 0.00% USD/JMD 157.49 ▲ 0.36% USD/TTD 6.71 ▲ 0.76% EUR/BRL 5.76 ▼ 0.61% BRENT 97.26 ▲ 3.39% WTI 89.22 ▲ 2.75% IRON ORE 161.91 — — COPPER 6.46 ▲ 0.10% GOLD 4,110 ▼ 0.88% SILVER 59.33 ▼ 1.15% SOY 1,244 ▲ 0.87% CORN 487.00 ▲ 5.41% WHEAT 707.00 ▲ 0.18% COFFEE 318.05 ▼ 4.19% SUGAR 14.75 ▼ 0.87% ORANGE JUICE 147.50 ▲ 2.57% COTTON 81.36 ▲ 3.04% COCOA 5,353 ▼ 4.53% BEEF 219.20 ▼ 3.30% CATTLE 336.15 ▼ 3.83% LITHIUM 69.00 ▼ 0.12% PETR4 42.58 ▲ 2.21% VALE3 75.10 ▲ 3.96% ITUB4 42.90 ▲ 0.87% BBDC4 18.97 ▲ 2.26% ABEV3 16.13 ▲ 2.09% BBAS3 21.09 ▲ 1.01% B3SA3 15.90 ▲ 4.81% WEGE3 46.74 ▲ 10.05% PRIO3 59.77 ▲ 2.73% SUZB3 42.66 ▲ 2.47% RENT3 37.14 ▲ 1.61% AZZA3 17.81 ▲ 1.89% CSAN3 3.92 ▲ 3.70% RAIZ4 0.27 — 0.00% PCAR3 2.75 ▲ 0.73% GMAT3 3.91 ▲ 2.09% PSSA3 55.45 ▲ 3.68% CVCB3 1.27 ▲ 13.39% POSI3 3.70 ▲ 0.54% SLCE3 13.96 ▲ 1.53% NATU3 8.68 ▼ 0.34% BRKM5 6.07 ▲ 6.30% RANI3 8.00 ▲ 1.39% CSNA3 5.38 ▲ 6.32% CMIN3 5.84 ▲ 4.66% USIM5 8.65 ▲ 2.25% GGBR4 24.06 ▲ 2.43% ENEV3 25.97 ▲ 2.16% CPFE3 46.71 ▲ 0.67% CMIG4 11.21 ▲ 1.72% EQTL3 39.35 ▲ 1.34% LREN3 13.54 ▲ 2.03% VIVT3 35.38 ▼ 1.17% RAIL3 13.64 ▲ 3.02% KLABIN 17.93 ▲ 1.93% RAIA DROGASIL 18.29 ▲ 0.88% RDOR3 34.49 ▲ 1.68% HAPV3 11.39 ▲ 1.33% FLRY3 16.65 ▲ 0.60% SMTO3 16.05 ▲ 3.02% UGPA3 32.83 ▲ 3.17% VBBR3 34.98 ▲ 3.03% BBSE3 42.58 ▲ 2.48% BPAC11 57.02 ▲ 2.98% CURY3 30.20 ▲ 0.83% AERI3 2.05 ▲ 0.49% VIVARA 21.55 ▲ 0.65% COMPASS 24.81 ▲ 1.51% VAMOS 3.23 ▲ 4.53% SANB11 26.95 ▼ 0.96% ASAI3 8.40 ▲ 1.82% SBSP3 29.29 ▲ 2.41% WALMEX 48.65 ▼ 1.02% GMEXICO 214.34 ▲ 2.57% FEMSA 227.98 ▲ 0.55% CEMEX 22.17 ▲ 0.45% GFNORTE 191.99 ▲ 3.33% BIMBO 60.30 ▲ 1.53% TELEVISA 9.82 ▲ 0.61% AMX 22.70 ▼ 0.26% GAP 378.40 ▼ 0.03% ASUR 273.53 ▼ 0.52% OMA 229.62 ▲ 1.49% KOF 182.55 ▲ 1.15% GRUMA 280.45 ▼ 0.76% KIMBER 38.85 ▲ 1.17% SQM-B 65,055 ▲ 0.80% COPEC 6,550 ▲ 1.55% BSANTANDER 79.85 ▲ 1.06% FALABELLA 6,042 ▲ 2.08% ENELAM 84.53 — 0.00% CENCOSUD 2,010 ▼ 0.89% CMPC 1,070 ▼ 1.28% BANCO CHILE 193.50 ▲ 1.84% LATAM AIR 24.09 ▼ 0.45% YPF 82,500 ▲ 2.33% GGAL 8,275 ▲ 3.89% PAMPA 5,625 ▲ 2.74% TXAR 668.50 ▼ 1.55% ALUAR 974.00 ▲ 0.10% TGS 9,905 ▲ 2.01% CEPU 2,411 ▲ 3.03% MIRGOR 16,925 ▲ 0.89% COME 43.14 ▲ 0.63% LOMA NEGRA 3,823 ▲ 6.03% BYMA 295.00 ▲ 0.94% TELECOM ARG 4,420 ▲ 3.88% ECOPETROL 16.69 ▲ 0.97% BANCOLOMBIA 84.66 ▲ 1.22% GRUPO AVAL 5.04 ▼ 0.98% CREDICORP 393.43 ▲ 0.60% SOUTHERN COPPER 195.48 ▲ 3.97% BUENAVENTURA 32.09 ▲ 2.69% MERCADOLIBRE 1,799 ▼ 1.29% NUBANK 14.51 ▲ 0.83% XP 17.30 ▲ 2.67% PAGSEGURO 9.67 ▲ 0.94% STONE 11.36 ▲ 0.93% GLOBANT 30.67 ▼ 4.45% TECNOGLASS 45.24 ▲ 0.20% GAP AIRPORT 217.70 ▲ 0.01% ASUR 273.53 ▼ 0.52% OMA AIRPORT 105.35 ▲ 1.07% AMX ADR 26.12 ▲ 0.12% FEMSA ADR 130.96 ▲ 0.47% CEMEX ADR 12.74 ▲ 0.32% PETROBRAS ADR 18.89 ▲ 1.89% VALE ADR 14.85 ▲ 4.21% ITAU ADR 8.48 ▲ 0.95% SANTANDER BR 5.45 ▲ 0.74% AMBEV ADR 3.14 ▲ 0.96% CSN 1.09 ▲ 9.00% GERDAU 4.77 ▲ 2.69% LATAM ADR 51.22 ▼ 0.68% BTC 65,405 ▼ 1.05% ETH 1,916 ▼ 0.93% SOL 77.11 ▼ 1.02% XRP 1.13 ▼ 0.87% BNB 568.68 ▼ 0.36% ADA 0.17 ▼ 0.87% DOGE 0.07 ▼ 0.98% AVAX 6.54 ▼ 1.16% LINK 8.53 ▼ 1.06% DOT 0.82 ▼ 1.70% LTC 46.92 ▼ 0.32% BCH 215.60 ▼ 1.99% TRX 0.33 ▲ 0.10% XLM 0.18 ▼ 1.85% HBAR 0.07 ▲ 0.70% NEAR 1.86 ▼ 0.27% ATOM 1.46 ▼ 0.38% AAVE 96.85 ▼ 0.52% SELIC 14.25% EMBRAER 83.79 ▲ 1.38% EMBRAER ADR 66.05 ▲ 0.89% JBS 12.25 ▲ 2.51% JBS BDR 61.80 ▲ 2.62% MBRF3 16.03 ▲ 6.09% MBRFY 3.19 ▲ 8.14% INTER 5.69 ▲ 1.97% EGX 53,932 ▼ 0.11% USD/ZAR 16.41 ▲ 0.01% USD/NGN 1,370 — 0.00% NIKKEI 66,423 ▲ 0.46% CSI300 4,724 ▲ 0.15% HSI 25,210 ▲ 1.27% NIFTY 23,897 ▼ 0.41% KOSPI 7,097 ▲ 4.40% JCI 6,426 ▲ 1.44% USD/JPY 163.14 ▲ 0.03% USD/CNY 6.7698 ▲ 0.09% DAX 25,155 — 0.00% CAC 8,438 ▲ 0.89% FTSE 10,717 — 0.00% MIB 52,792 ▲ 0.97% IBEX 19,571 ▲ 0.99% STOXX 646.93 ▲ 0.58% EUR/USD 1.1426 ▲ 0.15% GBP/USD 1.3374 ▼ 0.01% SPX 7,499 ▼ 0.14% DJI 52,219 ▼ 0.01% NDX 28,998 ▼ 0.54% RUT 2,960 ▼ 0.92% TSX 35,485 ▲ 0.33% VIX 16.64 ▼ 2.40% USD/CAD 1.4066 ▼ 0.11% US10Y 4.6570 ▲ 0.63%
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Thursday, July 23, 2026

Analysis Brazil

Washington Turns Up the Heat on Brazil — Echoes of Venezuela in Sanctions from Judges to Health Officials

By · August 14, 2025 · 6 min read

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(Analysis) In mid-August 2025, the United States widened its campaign against Brazil’s government, moving from sanctioning members of the judiciary to targeting officials in the health sector.

On August 13, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced visa cancellations for “several members” of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration.

The focus: those tied to the Mais Médicos program, which places doctors in underserved areas of Brazil, including rural and remote communities.

Washington accuses the program of acting as a “forced labor” export scheme from Cuba, enriching Havana while circumventing U.S. sanctions.

Two names were made public: Mozart Júlio Tabosa Sales, Health Ministry secretary, and Alberto Kleiman, a former ministry advisor and ex-official of the Pan American Health Organization (OPAS). The bans also extend to some family members.

Rubio claimed Mais Médicos was “an inconceivable diplomatic coup” by the Cuban regime, facilitated by Brazil and OPAS, in which Cuban doctors were sent abroad under contracts that diverted a large share of their salaries to Havana.

Washington Turns Up the Heat on Brazil — Echoes of Venezuela in Sanctions from Judges to Health Officials
Washington Turns Up the Heat on Brazil — Echoes of Venezuela in Sanctions from Judges to Health Officials. (Photo Internet reproduction)
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The U.S. position is that this violates both human rights norms and existing sanctions against Cuba. Brazil’s government has pushed back hard.

Health Minister Alexandre Padilha said the accusations were baseless, calling the measures “unjustifiable attacks” on a program that “saves lives and is approved by those who matter most: the Brazilian people.”

Mozart Sales called the sanctions “unfair” and defended Mais Médicos as part of the public healthcare system’s mission to bring essential services to those who would otherwise go without.

The Precedent: Targeting Brazil’s Supreme Court

The August sanctions did not come out of nowhere. In July 2025, Washington took the extraordinary step of directly targeting Brazil’s judiciary.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a central figure in investigations into former president Jair Bolsonaro and the January 8, 2023 riot, had his U.S. visa revoked.

He was also sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act, a tool usually aimed at officials from authoritarian regimes accused of human rights violations. Several of his Supreme Court colleagues also lost their visas.

The sanctions froze any assets under U.S. jurisdiction and prohibited American companies from doing business with Moraes.

While he reportedly holds no U.S. assets, the sanctions are symbolically heavy and practically inconvenient — potentially affecting even his ability to use international credit systems linked to U.S. banks.

The focus: those tied to the Mais Médicos program, which places doctors in underserved areas of Brazil, including rural and remote communities.
The focus: those tied to the Mais Médicos program, which places doctors in underserved areas of Brazil, including rural and remote communities.

President Donald Trump, in his second term, escalated further. He imposed steep tariffs on Brazilian steel and other exports, explicitly linking them to the prosecution of Bolsonaro.

The message was clear: stop pursuing Bolsonaro or face economic consequences. Brazilian law, however, gives no mechanism for the executive to halt a Supreme Court trial.

Eduardo Bolsonaro’s Washington Campaign

Much of the pressure stems from active lobbying by Bolsonaro’s allies, especially his son Eduardo Bolsonaro.

Having relocated to the U.S. earlier in 2025, Eduardo has built ties with Trump’s inner circle and openly pushed for sanctions on officials tied to his father’s legal troubles.

After the Moraes sanctions, Eduardo celebrated publicly, saying Trump’s measures would “contain and punish authoritarian regimes” like the one “Lula and Moraes are turning Brazil into.”

Moraes, from the bench, accused Brazilian “traitors” of conspiring with a foreign power to destabilize the country, trigger an economic crisis, and pave the way for another coup attempt.

How the U.S. Targeted Venezuela (2017–2020)

The pattern in Brazil echoes the strategy used by the U.S. against Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuela:

  • 2017 – Sanctions on Supreme Court justices after they stripped the opposition-led National Assembly of power.
  • 2017–2018 – Sanctions on ministers, electoral officials, and military leaders for undermining democracy.
  • 2017 onward – Visa bans for hundreds of officials and relatives; by March 2019, over 600 visas revoked; by 2020, more than 700 individuals affected.
  • 2019 – Recognition of opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president; coordination with allies in the Lima Group and OAS to isolate Maduro.
  • 2019–2020 – Economic sanctions on oil company PDVSA, blocking Venezuela’s main revenue; August 2019 embargo on all Venezuelan state assets in U.S. jurisdiction.
  • 2020 – U.S. indictments against Maduro and aides on drug trafficking and terrorism charges; bounty of $15–25 million on Maduro’s capture.

This multi-pronged strategy—personal sanctions, travel bans, economic warfare, and international isolation—left Venezuela economically shattered and diplomatically cut off, though Maduro remained in power with military and foreign backing.

Patterns Repeating in Brazil

In both Venezuela then and Brazil now, Washington has:

  • Used personal sanctions and visa bans to pressure key officials.
  • Aligned with the domestic opposition to push for political change.
  • Applied economic tools—from sanctions to tariffs—as leverage.
  • Framed the government as authoritarian to justify intervention.

The coordination with Eduardo Bolsonaro today mirrors U.S. ties with Venezuelan opposition envoys during the Maduro years.

In both cases, the aim is to weaken the target government from within by isolating it internationally and pressuring its political base.

By 2020, Venezuela was diplomatically isolated and economically crippled — though Maduro remained in power, backed by the military and allies like Russia, China, and Iran.

Brazil and Venezuela: The Similarities

The tactics now appearing in Brazil mirror the Venezuela campaign in several ways:

Brazil and Venezuela: The Similarities
Venezuela (2017–2020) Brazil (2025)
Sanctions on Supreme Court justices and high officials Sanctions on Justice Moraes and other STF members
Hundreds of visa revocations for officials and families Visa cancellations for STF justices, health officials, and families
Coordination with domestic opposition (Guaidó camp) Coordination with Bolsonaro camp, led by Eduardo Bolsonaro
Economic sanctions (oil, markets) Tariffs on steel and other exports
Framing regime as authoritarian to justify action Framing Lula’s government as authoritarian, tied to Cuba

 

In both cases, Washington works hand-in-hand with local political actors seeking to weaken or unseat the current leadership, using targeted personal sanctions, economic leverage, and international rhetoric.

Key Differences That Could Change the Outcome

Despite the similarities, Brazil is not Venezuela circa 2017.

  • Economic Scale: Brazil is the 10th largest economy in the world, a G20 member, and a major trading partner to multiple powers.
  • Democratic Legitimacy: Lula’s government is internationally recognized as democratically elected, unlike Maduro’s disputed 2018 re-election.
  • Diplomatic Isolation: The Venezuela strategy had broad regional and European support; U.S. moves against Brazil are largely unilateral.
  • Diversified Trade: Brazil can pivot to China, Europe, and other partners to offset U.S. pressure.

These differences mean full isolation is unlikely, but sustained U.S. economic and political pressure could still create significant strain.

What’s at Stake

The U.S. is applying tools normally aimed at authoritarian regimes — Magnitsky sanctions, personal visa bans, and economic penalties — to a democratic ally. This raises sovereignty concerns and sets a precedent for similar interventions elsewhere.

If the confrontation escalates, Brazil could face:

  • Expanded U.S. sanctions on other officials or industries.
  • Greater domestic polarization fueled by foreign involvement.
  • Closer ties with China, Russia, or other U.S. rivals.

For the U.S., this approach risks alienating Latin America’s largest democracy and undermining its own credibility on supporting democratic norms.

Conclusion: Venezuela’s Shadow

The Venezuela campaign between 2017 and 2020 shows how far the U.S. is willing to go when it labels a government “authoritarian.” Brazil is not there — but the methods now in play are drawn from the same playbook.

Whether Brazil “follows Venezuela into the abyss” depends on two questions: how far Washington is willing to escalate, and how successfully Brasília can rally domestic and international support to resist.

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