CUBA · US POLICY
Key Facts
- The country Cuba is a one-party Communist island 90 miles south of Florida, under a US trade embargo since the early 1960s.
- What happened US ambassador Mike Waltz said there is no Cuba blockade after a US-hosted human rights forum at the UN on Monday 19 October.
- The forum Titled ‘Cuba Libre: the oppression Havana hides’, it featured former political prisoners, a New York congresswoman and a Ukrainian diplomat.
- The next test The UN General Assembly votes on Cuba’s yearly anti-embargo resolution on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October 2026.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives 8.5% to US military action against Cuba by 31 December and 7% to Díaz-Canel leaving office (21 October, 3:39 p.m. ET).
- What it means for you The US case at the UN shapes sanctions, travel rules and fuel shipments that touch Americans with Cuba ties.
- Power Index Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
US ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz says there is no Cuba blockade, rejecting Havana’s claim that Washington is strangling the island. He spoke after a US-hosted human rights forum at UN headquarters in New York on Monday 19 October 2026, Diario de Cuba reported.
For US readers, the Cuba blockade row matters because the UN General Assembly votes on Cuba’s yearly anti-embargo resolution on 27 and 28 October. The result will show how much of the world still backs Havana’s line.
What Waltz Said About the Cuba Blockade
Waltz told the Fox & Friends morning show that there is no Cuba blockade and no ring of navy ships, according to Diario de Cuba. He added that Cuba’s government loves to play the victim at the UN.
He also said regime officials live in luxury in Europe and Latin America while Cubans face hunger and blackouts. The UN, he said, was once Havana’s creature, and that is no longer true under the current US administration.
On the social platform X he answered Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, who had called the forum a lying spectacle. Waltz wrote that the truth hurts.
Inside the Cuba Libre Forum
The US mission organised the event with Archivo Cuba, a research group that documents abuses on the island, according to Diario de Cuba. Speakers included former political prisoners José Daniel Ferrer and Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara, and US Representative Nicole Malliotakis, a New York Republican.
Waltz told the room that corruption, human rights abuses and repression are the real roots of Cuba’s problems. A US official, Juan Pablo Segura, also criticised GAESA, the military-run business conglomerate that controls much of Cuba’s economy.
Ukraine’s deputy UN envoy, Volodymyr Pavlichenko, said Kyiv has identified more than 1,000 Cubans who signed Russian army contracts in 2023 to 2025. He said the true number is probably higher.
How Havana Answered
Cuba’s UN ambassador, Ernesto Soberón, had objected on Friday 16 October to the invitation-only format, according to Periódico Cubano. After the forum he called Waltz a liar and said most UN members stand with Havana.
Diario de Cuba reported that Cuban diplomats shouted ‘terrorists’ at guests in a UN corridor. Rodríguez Parrilla accused the US envoy of ignoring the UN’s agenda and conference rules.
The Embargo Vote Next Week
Each year the UN General Assembly votes on a Cuban resolution against the US embargo. The embargo is the set of trade and financial sanctions in place since the early 1960s.
The resolution is not binding, and only the US Congress can lift the embargo. Last year it passed with 165 votes in favour, 7 against and 12 abstentions, down from 187 yes votes in 2024.
In July 2026 a procedural vote on an extra debate drew 136 yes, 9 no and 30 abstentions. On 14 October a Cuban opposition coalition in Miami asked governments to vote no or abstain, Cuba Headlines reported.
The coalition says US exports to Cuba reached about US$674 million from January to July 2026, including about US$157 million in fuels. It cites this as proof that no total Cuba blockade exists.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders put the odds of US military action against Cuba by 31 December at 8.5%, with about US$5.4 million traded on that contract. A separate market, as of 3:39 p.m. ET on Wednesday 21 October 2026, gives 7% to Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba’s president, leaving office by then.
Both prices are low, which suggests traders see the standoff as a war of words and sanctions rather than a coming confrontation. For wider context, see What Is Going On Between Cuba and the United States?.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Waltz’s wording signals that Washington will defend its sanctions as targeted pressure on the Cuban government, not a naval Cuba blockade. That line shapes how the US argues its case before the General Assembly.
Americans with family in Cuba, and US firms selling food, fuel or medicine under licences, work within the embargo rules. Travellers can read the current limits in Can Americans Still Travel to Cuba in 2026?.
Investors in Canadian and other foreign firms with Cuban joint ventures should watch the vote and any follow-up on licences. A weaker showing for Havana would encourage Washington to keep up its current approach.
What Is Not Known
It is not clear how many countries will back Cuba’s resolution on 27 and 28 October, or how many will abstain. Last year’s drop of 22 votes shows the support is shrinking, but no one has published a forecast.
Neither government has said whether talks on fuel, prisoners or sanctions are planned after the vote. The date of the Fox & Friends interview has not been given.
What Comes Next
The General Assembly takes up Cuba’s resolution on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October 2026. Both sides are expected to count every vote and abstention as a sign of their standing.
Waltz and the US mission are likely to keep pressing the human rights case on Cuba through the vote. Havana will present the result as backing for its call to end the embargo.
More: Cuba news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Mike Waltz?
Mike Waltz is the US ambassador to the United Nations, appointed by President Donald Trump. He represents Washington at the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
Does the US have a naval blockade of Cuba?
Waltz says there is no Cuba blockade and no ring of navy ships around the island. The US does keep economic sanctions and energy restrictions that Havana calls a blockade.
What is the Cuba Libre forum?
It was a human rights round table held on Monday 19 October 2026 at UN headquarters in New York. The US mission organised it with Archivo Cuba to expose abuses by Cuba’s government.
When does the UN vote on the US embargo?
The General Assembly votes on Tuesday 27 and Wednesday 28 October 2026. The resolution calls for an end to the embargo but is not binding.
What did Cuba say in reply?
Ambassador Ernesto Soberón called Waltz a liar and said most UN members back Havana. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla called the forum a lying spectacle.
Sources: Diario de Cuba, 21 October 2026; Diario de Cuba, 19 October 2026; Periódico Cubano, 19 October 2026; Cuba Headlines, 14 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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