CUBA · WHAT NEXT
Key Facts
- —The country Cuba, a Caribbean island of about 9.4 million people, runs a state-owned grid that has collapsed completely eight times in 2026.
- —Why it matters The grid has almost no spare capacity, so every plant lost raises the odds of longer outages and of another island-wide collapse.
- —Why now A fire took out unit 1 of the Santa Cruz del Norte plant on Friday 16 October, and the Felton plant briefly went offline hours later.
- —What happened The state utility Unión Eléctrica (UNE) forecast evening outages of 2,190 MW, with 740 MW available against demand of 2,900 MW.
- —The numbers Thursday’s worst outage reached 2,094 MW at 7:30 p.m., above plan, and nine units were listed as broken down or in maintenance on Friday morning.
- —What it means for you Plan for blackouts of 20 hours or more and for delays to travel, family and business plans tied to Cuba.
- —Still open Whether the Guiteras and Santa Cruz unit 1 return soon enough, and Felton stays online, to avoid a ninth nationwide collapse.
- —Power Index Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
Cuba power outages look set to stay severe after the Santa Cruz del Norte fire, because unit 1 of that plant has no repair date and the grid has almost no spare capacity. The state utility UNE forecast evening outages of 2,190 MW for Friday 16 October, and the Felton plant went offline at 11:31 a.m. before apparently returning about an hour later.
For US readers, the risk is practical, since longer blackouts disrupt travel, hotels, family contact and any firm or aid group with Cuban partners. This piece looks ahead at what could worsen or ease the shortage over the coming days.
Where the Grid Stands After the Fire
At 6 a.m. on Friday the UNE reported 740 MW available against demand of 2,260 MW, an outage of 1,540 MW, before the fire began at 6:55 a.m., Martí Noticias and CiberCuba report. For the evening peak it forecast the same 740 MW against 2,900 MW of demand, a deficit of 2,160 MW and outages of 2,190 MW.
The 2,190 MW forecast equals about 75.5% of the 2,900 MW demand, which EFE called the highest rate since the UNE began publishing statistics in 2022, topping the 74% of 29 July, Infobae and OnCuba report. Thursday’s worst outage reached 2,094 MW at 7:30 p.m., above plan because of problems at Cienfuegos units 3 and 4 and Santa Cruz unit 2, the UNE said.
The UNE’s Friday morning list showed six units broken down, among them Santa Cruz units 1 and 2, the Guiteras, Felton unit 2 and Renté units 3 and 6, CiberCuba reports. Three more were in maintenance, and thermal generation limits alone came to 394 MW, the same outlet says.
The UNE announced at 11:31 a.m. that the Felton plant in Mayarí, Holguín, was offline, without naming the unit or the cause, CiberCuba and Periódico Cubano report. CiberCuba’s outage tracker later logged Felton back in line at 12:35 p.m., a notice we could not trace to a UNE post we could open.
That announcement came after the morning forecast, so the 2,190 MW figure does not reflect it, and 14ymedio recalls that Felton unit 2 has been out since a July 2022 accident. The UNE had published no new forecast by mid-afternoon in Havana, so the evening gap may differ from the morning figure.
The fire was controlled by about 9 a.m. and fully out by 10:24 a.m., according to the authorities quoted by 14ymedio, and the Energy and Mines Ministry said no one was injured. The UNE and state radio say an oil leak at the front of the rotor started it, a cause that only state sources have given.
What Could Make Cuba Power Outages Worse
A collapse needs a trigger, and OnCuba reports that the 18 September failure followed transmission faults that cut the west, with the UNE blaming the trip of a section of the 220 kV Matanzas-Cienfuegos line. The eight collapses of 2026 also came in clusters, with two inside a week in March, three in eight days in July and two in under 24 hours in August, OnCuba’s timeline shows.
Recovery is slow once the whole system drops, as the UNE linked Pinar del Río to Holguín only 28 hours after the 6 July collapse, OnCuba reported. After the 10 July collapse all provinces were reconnected almost 40 hours later, and the Guiteras did not restart after the 14 July one, OnCuba’s timeline shows.
The Guiteras in Matanzas went out again on Wednesday 14 October with a leak in a boiler economizer, after a steam leak had forced it off on 9 October, Periódico Cubano reports. The plant gave no restart date and must cool before repairs can begin.
OnCuba recalls that Guiteras exits set off national collapses in October and December 2024, and officials admit a large capital-maintenance debt there. A full overhaul that would stop the plant for months has been postponed repeatedly, most recently in late 2025, the outlet adds.
Partial failures add to the strain without counting among the eight collapses, and the UNE said an oscillation on 27 August cut the east from Holguín to Guantánamo, OnCuba reported. It took out Felton unit 1, Nuevitas unit 6 and Renté unit 6 at once, according to the UNE notice OnCuba cited, which is why the east is watched closely.
Fuel sets the ceiling, because Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy says private imports meet under 3% of needs and no state company has a supply contract, OnCuba and Periódico Cubano reported on 14 October. The US fuel that does arrive goes to private businesses and has not ended the outages, he says.
What Could Ease the Shortfall
The UNE said units 2 and 3 at Santa Cruz del Norte were preparing to restart after the fire, 14ymedio reports. Unit 2 was listed as broken down and unit 3 as in maintenance that morning, and no restart time or output was given.
De la O Levy credited recent maintenance, new renewables and cooler weather after summer for restoring some capacity, Directorio Cubano reported on 12 October, and we could not check his original remarks. Evening demand is forecast at 2,900 MW, against the 3,200 MW or more that OnCuba put on demand in early August.
Past collapses were reversed within about two days, and Felton’s reported quick return on Friday shows that some plants can come back fast. The Guiteras and Santa Cruz returning together would narrow the gap fastest, though the sources give no date for either.
What to Watch Over the Next Days
Start with the UNE’s daily forecast, which shows whether Cuba power outages stay near 2,200 MW or climb. A result above plan, as on Thursday, is itself a warning sign.
Next watch the three big plants, the Guiteras, Felton and Santa Cruz unit 1, since each one lost widens the evening gap. Any trip of the 220 kV Matanzas-Cienfuegos line also deserves attention, as it preceded the 18 September collapse.
What It Means for You
Travellers should expect blackouts of 20 hours or more in many places, as CiberCuba reported for recent days, and should ask lodgings about generators or batteries. Ten airports have no jet fuel until at least 1 November, according to Periódico Cubano’s reading of aeronautical notices, so confirm flights before travelling.
Relatives and firms with Cuban partners should plan for interrupted operations and treat the UNE’s daily forecast as the best guide to each evening. The fire is reported in our news story Cuba Thermoelectric Plant Fire Hits Unit 1 and the wider causes in our explainer Cuba Energy Crisis Explained: Why the Grid Keeps Failing.
Earlier strain in the east is covered in Cuba Grid Splits in East as 1,680 MW Shortfall Looms, and the 18 September collapse in Cuba Grid Failure: Line Trips, Not Gunfire, Caused 8th Blackout of 2026. Airport fuel limits are covered in Cuba Airports Lack Jet Fuel Until 1 November.
What Is Not Known
It is not known when Santa Cruz unit 1 or the Guiteras will return, which Felton unit dropped out, or whether Felton is still online. The UNE had published no recalculated forecast in the sources we reviewed, and its evening report was not yet out when we checked.
The oil-leak cause comes only from the UNE and state radio, and nobody independent has confirmed it. No source gives a damage estimate, although CiberCuba says the images show severe damage to the unit and its roof.
Nothing in the sources shows whether a ninth nationwide collapse will happen, since the daily UNE forecasts we reviewed cover outages and not the risk of collapse. How much of the shortfall stems from US fuel pressure and how much from ageing plants is also not settled by the sources reviewed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Cuba have another nationwide blackout?
No source says so, and the daily figures cannot forecast a collapse. OnCuba counts eight in 2026, often in clusters, so the risk is real while several units are out.
How big are the Cuba power outages after the Santa Cruz fire?
The UNE forecast outages of 2,190 MW for Friday evening, with 740 MW available against demand of 2,900 MW. The UNE had published no new forecast after Felton’s brief outage when we checked.
Which plants matter most over the next few days?
The Guiteras in Matanzas and Santa Cruz del Norte unit 1 are out, and Felton in Holguín dropped offline briefly on Friday. The 220 kV Matanzas-Cienfuegos line also matters, since a trip there preceded the 18 September collapse.
How long do blackouts last after a total collapse?
The UNE linked Pinar del Río to Holguín 28 hours after the 6 July collapse, and all provinces were back almost 40 hours after the 10 July one, OnCuba reports. OnCuba says the July recoveries were hampered by a lack of fuel.
What should travellers to Cuba do?
Ask lodgings about generators or batteries and expect long power cuts. Ten airports have no jet fuel until at least 1 November, so confirm flights before travelling.
Sources: CiberCuba on Felton, 16 October 2026; CiberCuba on the fire, 16 October 2026; CiberCuba on the aftermath, 16 October 2026; Periódico Cubano on Felton, 16 October 2026; Periódico Cubano on the Guiteras, 14 October 2026; Periódico Cubano on airports, 14 October 2026; Periódico Cubano on fuel, 14 October 2026; 14ymedio, 16 October 2026; Martí Noticias, 16 October 2026; OnCuba on the fire, 16 October 2026; OnCuba, 18 September 2026; OnCuba, 7 August 2026; OnCuba, 14 October 2026; Directorio Cubano, 12 October 2026; Infobae, relaying EFE, 16 October 2026; OnCuba, 27 August 2026; CiberCuba outage tracker, 16 October 2026. Grid figures come from the Unión Eléctrica (UNE) daily reports as carried by these outlets.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief