Democrats Projected to Win Top Texas Races
Published Tuesday, Nov. 3, 11:51 p.m. ET (10:51 p.m. Austin) · Source: Texas Secretary of State returns, election-night race projections
Texas, the second-largest US state, swung to Democrats on Tuesday night. Democrats are projected to win both the US Senate seat and the governor’s office, breaking a streak of more than three decades without a Republican statewide loss.
James Talarico, a Texas state lawmaker and former public school teacher, is projected to beat Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, in the Senate race. Gina Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin, the state capital, is projected to unseat Gov. Greg Abbott in the 2026 US midterm elections, the national vote halfway through a presidential term.
Key Facts
- What happened: On Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, Democrats James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa were projected to win Texas’ Senate and governor races.
- Who decided: Texas voters; the winners were projected on election night, before official counts finish.
- The numbers: Talarico led Senate rival Ken Paxton about 59% to 40% with roughly 69% of votes counted.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US prediction market, priced a Hinojosa win by 1+ point at 99.9% (11:46 p.m. ET, Nov. 3).
- What next: Counties keep counting; the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027.
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
In plain English
A “projection” means news organisations that count votes have decided a candidate cannot be caught. Official results come later, but the gap here is wide.
Why This Is a Big Upset
No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Hinojosa would also be the first Democratic governor since Ann Richards, who won in 1990, and the first Hispanic governor in state history.
Abbott, the Republican incumbent, was seeking a fourth term. He conceded on Tuesday night as Hinojosa held a wide lead in the count.
How the Night Unfolded
With roughly 69% of votes counted, Talarico had about 59% (4.2 million votes) to Paxton’s 40% (2.8 million). Those figures will move as more counties report.
Early and mail-in ballots can lean one way before Election Day votes arrive. Texans cast more than 7.4 million votes in person during the two-week early period, according to the Texas Secretary of State, the state’s chief election office, and over 7.7 million early votes including mail ballots, more than 40% of the state’s roughly 19 million registered voters.
A Race Shaped by Rivals Inside Both Parties
Talarico won the Democratic primary in March over US Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a Dallas Democrat. Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, in the party runoff on May 26 by a wide margin.
Paxton has been attorney general since 2015.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a Hinojosa win by at least one point traded at 99.9% at 11:46 p.m. ET. On Polymarket, another prediction market, with about US$569,000 traded on the Senate margin, Talarico by 12 points or more stood at 48.3% and by 9 to 12 points at 35.5%. Prices are bets, not polls, and they trail the official count.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
See our midterm odds tracker for the national picture.
What It Means for US Readers
A Democratic Senate seat in Texas is a rare flip, and it improves the party’s path to a Senate majority. Investors watching tax, energy and tariff policy should expect a tougher road for President Donald Trump’s agenda if Democrats gain Congress.
Texas has one of the largest Latino populations of any US state, a group our Latino voters midterms 2026 report followed all year. Hinojosa’s projected win gives Democrats a Hispanic governor in the country’s second-biggest state.
The next test comes when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027, and the final Senate tally shows whether Democrats actually hold a majority. A late swing in other close states would end that hope.
What Is Not Known
We have not confirmed calls in the lower statewide races, the Texas House or congressional contests. Final counts and margins are not known, and results may shift as late ballots arrive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is projected to win the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico is projected to beat Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general. Talarico led about 59% to 40% with roughly 69% of votes counted.
Who is projected to win Texas governor?
Democrat Gina Hinojosa is projected to unseat Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. She would be the state’s first Hispanic governor.
Sources: Texas Secretary of State election results; Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief