BRAZIL · ANALYSIS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, voted on 25 October 2026; Lula won by about 4.4 million votes.
- What happened Trump welcomed loser Flávio Bolsonaro to the US and said he will talk to Lula.
- The visas A State Department official promised visas to Flávio and his family on 27 October.
- The caveat No US document shows asylum or any special status for Flávio beyond those visas.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives 37.0% that Trump speaks to Lula by 31 October (30 October, 3:57 a.m. ET).
Trump courts Brazil’s winner and loser at the same time, and the record shows it in his own words and one State Department promise. Since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won on Sunday 25 October 2026, Trump has welcomed loser Flávio Bolsonaro and said he will talk to Lula.
For US readers this matters because Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a big trade partner. Tariffs between the two countries are still unsettled, so this analysis separates the documented facts from our reading.
What Happened
Brazil’s electoral court, the body that runs elections, gave Lula 51.79% of valid votes on Sunday 25 October, a lead of about 4.4 million. Flávio Bolsonaro said he could not accept the result.
Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes had ordered Bolsonaro to hand in his passports in a money-laundering investigation, which he denies. He crossed into Argentina on the night of Tuesday 27 October and landed near Miami on Wednesday 28 October.
On Tuesday a senior State Department official said the United States will issue visas to Bolsonaro and his family. That night Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, “Well, I would approve.”
He added that he knows Lula, “Flavio a little bit” and “the father very well.” On Thursday 29 October he said, “I think the election was a disgrace in Brazil,” and that he would “talk to him,” meaning Lula.
What the Record Shows
On the Flávio side, where Trump courts an ally, the documented steps are the promised visas and his public welcome. Trump also said Bolsonaro’s father, the jailed ex-president, “was treated really badly.”
Jason Miller, a long-time Trump campaign adviser, posted an English translation of Flávio’s defeat speech on X on 25 October. Our report on that post is linked below.
On the Lula side, a trade partner, the two presidents spoke by phone for 1 hour 20 minutes on Friday 21 August 2026. Brazil’s communications office, Secom, described the tone as friendly and cordial, and the call restarted tariff talks.
Our reports on Trump’s first reaction to Lula’s win on Miller’s post and on Bolsonaro’s landing in Miami hold the details. Lula called the departure “shameful” on 27 October.
Why Trump Courts Both Sides
This part is interpretation, not record. A visa and a welcome cost Trump little with his conservative allies, and a call with Lula keeps the trade channel open at no cost.
In our reading, Trump courts both camps because his goals differ: loyalty to the Bolsonaro family and a working deal with Brazil’s government. His own line, “I didn’t take sides,” fits that reading, though the word “disgrace” shows which outcome he prefers.
Why It Matters
Trump has not publicly recognised Lula’s win, and he has offered no evidence of fraud. Because Trump courts both camps, the split message lets both Brazilian camps claim support, which could deepen the dispute over the result.
Markets noticed the result. Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 13.88% on Monday 26 October, and Trump pointed to that market reaction in his remarks.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, where users bet real money, traders gave 37.0% on 30 October (3:57 a.m. ET) that Trump speaks to Lula by 31 October. About US$28,000 has traded on that line, and the price rose 19 points in 24 hours.
A 37.0% price means traders see a call within two days as possible but less likely than not. These are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian shares through US-listed receipts, known as ADRs, expect swings until Washington and Brasília settle their relationship. Importers of Brazilian coffee, beef and orange juice should watch for any announcement after a Trump-Lula call.
Travel to Brazil is not affected by these remarks. The US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November may keep the topic in the news, since Trump courts both sides while campaigning.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Trump and Lula will speak, or when. No public US document shows asylum, parole or any status for Flávio Bolsonaro beyond the promised visas.
It is also not established whether anyone in Trump’s circle helped arrange his travel. Brazil’s government has not said how it will answer the 29 October remarks.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the United States given Flávio Bolsonaro asylum?
No such decision has been made public. A State Department official said on 27 October that visas will be issued to him and his family.
Has Trump spoken to Lula since the election?
Not publicly. On Thursday 29 October Trump said he will talk to Lula but gave no date, and no call has been announced.
Does Washington recognise Lula as president-elect?
Not publicly. On 29 October Trump did not say who he considers the legitimate winner, although Brazil’s electoral court confirmed Lula’s win.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) of Brazil, official results of the 25 October 2026 runoff, 25 October 2026; White House, remarks of the President to reporters, 27 and 29 October 2026, 29 October 2026; US Department of State, statements on visas, 27 October 2026; Federal Police of Brazil, note on Flávio Bolsonaro’s passports, 28 October 2026; Argentina National Migration Directorate, statement on the crossing of 27 October, 28 October 2026; Presidency of Brazil, statements of President Lula, 27 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Brazil runoff, Sunday, October 25: Brazil runoff start time and results schedule. Latest: Brazil runoff polls, Flávio 51%, Lula 49%.