Steelmaker CSN Jumps 9.12% from 12-Month Low | Steel Wrap, Nov 6
Key Facts
- CSN bounced hard from a 12-month low: its US-listed shares moved +9.12% to US$0.8511 on Friday, November 6, 2026, yet they remain 59.9% below their 28 January high of 2.12.
- Ternium (a Mexico-focused steelmaker) was the quiet winner: the Mexico-focused steelmaker moved +1.07% to US$49.16 after strong third-quarter results.
- Gerdau kept sliding: it moved -0.23% to US$4.38, its third straight daily fall and 16.4% below its 20 October peak of 5.24.
- The global steel fund barely moved: the SLX fund of steel producers moved +0.07% to US$96.30, but it is 11.2% lower over 60 sessions.
- The cause is cheap imports: in 2025 China supplied 64% of Brazil’s rolled-steel imports, which rose by more than 20%.
- Mexico is shielded, Brazil is not: US tariffs of 50% lift Mexican steel prices, while Brazil’s own protection is only partial.
Today’s Focus
Friday was a rebound, not a recovery. CSN, a Brazilian steelmaker, jumped after touching a 12-month low of 0.71 on 3 November, but its shares are still down 33.51% over 20 sessions.
The deeper story is the gap between two countries. Mexico’s Ternium sells into a US market fenced off by 50% tariffs, while Brazil’s mills face a flood of Chinese steel that its own tariffs only partly hold back.
Gerdau, Brazil’s largest steelmaker by reputation and reach, slipped for a third day. It is 14.45% lower over 20 sessions, which shows how little the sector’s pain was relieved by CSN’s bounce.
What matters today. Steel in Latin America is now a story of who is protected from China: Mexico largely is, Brazil only partly.
01 The session in one read
Two steelmakers on either side of the Rio Grande told opposite stories on Friday, November 6, 2026. Ternium, which makes most of its money in Mexico, moved +1.07%, while Gerdau in Brazil moved -0.23%.
CSN was the day’s loudest mover, at +9.12%. After a drop to a 12-month low on 3 November, buyers returned to the cheapest-looking name in the group.
The reason steel matters to outsiders is simple: it goes into buildings, cars and appliances, so its price is a quick read on how a region builds and spends.
CSN’s jump looks like buyers stepping in after a heavy fall, not a change in fundamentals, while Ternium’s strength rests on solid results and US-linked pricing. Brazil’s mills still face imports at 22.5% of domestic demand, so the next test is whether Brazilian steel prices hold once the anti-dumping duties bite.
02 The board
CSN’s US-traded shares closed at US$0.8511, still far below where they began the year. Ternium finished at US$49.16 and Gerdau at US$4.38.
The SLX fund, which holds steel producers worldwide, closed at US$96.30 after moving +0.07%. It was a flat day for the world, so the action was local.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Steel (SLX ETF) | US$96.30 | +0.07% |
| Gerdau | US$4.38 | -0.23% |
| CSN (ADR) | US$0.8511 | +9.12% |
| Ternium | US$49.16 | +1.07% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-06. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 168,498.45 | +1.39% | +9.89% | 166,191.45 | 169,073 | 165,910 | — |
| IPSA | 10,536.40 | +0.68% | — | 10,465.25 | 10,617 | 10,511 | — |
| IPC MEX | 70,968.43 | -0.17% | +13.16% | 71,087.56 | 71,469 | 70,635 | 145,640,378 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -4.19% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,485.26 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.50 | -0.17% | +2.56% | 5.51 | 5.53 | 5.48 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.13 | +0.07% | -0.35% | 6.13 | 6.17 | 6.12 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.60 | -0.84% | +0.04% | 18.76 | 18.81 | 18.57 | — |
| USD/CLP | 975.74 | -0.29% | +3.43% | 978.59 | 983.51 | 973.55 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,240 | +0.38% | -15.48% | 3,227 | 3,252 | 3,219 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.44 | -0.15% | +3.80% | 3.45 | 3.46 | 3.42 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | +0.00% | +6.50% | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.31 | +3.48% | +2.73% | 38.95 | 40.31 | 40.22 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,358 | +8.23% | -8.70% | 5,875 | 6,358 | 6,358 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.81 | +0.40% | +75.39% | 11.76 | 11.92 | 11.81 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.56 | +0.43% | -5.45% | 60.30 | 60.59 | 59.79 | — |
| USD/CRC | 448.27 | +1.89% | -8.45% | 439.97 | 449.63 | 448.27 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.24% | +2.07% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest cause: cheap Chinese steel. In 2025 China supplied 64% of Brazil’s rolled-steel imports, which rose by more than 20%, and imports took 22.5% of Brazilian demand in the first half of 2026. That squeezes the prices Brazilian mills can charge, which is why Gerdau keeps sliding.
Second cause: protection, and its uneven reach. Mexico sells at prices that follow the US market, where Washington’s 50% Section 232 tariff has pushed prices up, and a further US$25 a tonne rise was notified for November. Ternium expects fourth-quarter operating profit broadly in line with the third.
Brazil’s shield is thinner. Five-year anti-dumping duties on Chinese flat steel began in February 2026. Analysts expected CSN to benefit from those duties, but the shares fell anyway until this week.
Third, the CSN bounce itself. The usual drivers do not explain it: the dollar index rose 0.72% to 102.28 and the US 10-year yield edged up 3 basis points to 4.87%, both normally unkind to emerging-market shares. The best-supported reading is a technical rebound after a 33.51% slide in 20 sessions, with traders covering bets against the stock. We hold that with medium confidence, since we found no company news on the day.
Wider markets were jumpy: the VIX fear gauge is up 32.03% over five sessions to 25.64, and the S&P 500 is down 2.68% over the same stretch. Nervous investors usually sell cyclical shares like steel first.
04 The trend behind it
The SLX fund is 15.2% below its 12-month high of 113.57, set on 2 June, and 27.0% above its November 2025 low of 75.82. It is down 7.23% over 20 sessions, so this is a continuation of a slow decline, not a fresh shock.
Gerdau is down 6.01% over five sessions and 14.45% over 20, 34.4% above its March low of 3.26. CSN is the extreme case: 59.9% below its January high and just 19.9% above its low of 0.71.
Our own price history since 2007 gives a sober guide. After earlier falls this large, the SLX fund was higher 20 sessions later in 50 of 93 cases (54%), with a median move of +1.0% and a worst case of -44.3%. CSN’s record is weaker: 8 of 17 (47%) were higher, with a median of -0.9%. History is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
For Brazil, the imports story is a jobs and industry story. Gerdau, CSN and Usiminas, which filed the complaint behind the duties, are lobbying for more protection, and Gerdau has asked for a 35% import tariff since 2024.
Brazilian builders and carmakers gain from cheaper steel, while the mills lose. That trade-off is why the government has protected only some products.
For Mexico, the picture is brighter. Ternium reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of US$785 million, up 10% on the previous quarter, and net income of US$368 million. It expects strong Mexican sales and pricing into the first half of 2027.
Its Brazilian shipments fell 1% year on year, and the company says it is more cautious there because of imports. A Mexican investor is therefore betting on US policy, and a Brazilian one on Brasília’s.
06 The names to watch
CSN is the highest-risk name: a bounce of this size from a low often fades. Its US-listed shares trade at under a dollar, which magnifies every move.
Gerdau has fallen three sessions in a row and sits 16.4% below its October high, so a fourth would test the March low of 3.26 only after a long way down. Ternium is the steadier holding, supported by strong Mexican demand.
Usiminas is the likeliest winner from the anti-dumping duties, given that it filed the complaint, though we could not confirm its latest results.
07 What would end it
Brazil’s slide would ease if Chinese import volumes fall under the new duties, or if Brazil widens its protection. Gerdau and Usiminas third-quarter results, which we could not confirm, will show whether margins have stopped shrinking.
The levels are clear. For the SLX fund, the nearest floor is its 75.82 low and the ceiling is 113.57. CSN needs to hold above 0.71, and Gerdau needs to stop falling above 3.26.
The honest answer is that Mexico’s strength looks durable, while Brazil’s weakness lasts until imports are held back. A single rebound day does not change that.
08 What to watch
- Chinese imports into Brazil: Whether the 64% Chinese share of rolled-steel imports falls under the anti-dumping duties.
- Brazilian tariff policy: Any move by Brazil to widen its protection against Chinese steel.
- US steel prices: The US$25 a tonne rise notified for November, which drives Ternium’s Mexican pricing.
- Brazilian mill results: Gerdau and Usiminas third-quarter figures, and whether CSN holds above its 0.71 low.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did CSN jump on Friday?
Its US-listed shares moved +9.12% after touching a 12-month low on 3 November. The best-supported reading is a rebound from heavy selling, held with medium confidence.
Why is Ternium doing better than Brazilian steelmakers?
Its Mexican prices follow the US market, where 50% tariffs have lifted prices.
How much steel does Brazil import?
Imports took 22.5% of Brazilian demand in the first half of 2026, and China supplied 64% of rolled-steel imports.
Is the fall in steel shares likely to continue?
Our history since 2007 shows the SLX fund higher 20 sessions later in 54% of comparable cases. That is not a forecast.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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