NIGERIA · MARKETS
Key Facts
- The country Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation, led by President Bola Tinubu since May 2023.
- What happened Nigeria’s total external debt, public and private together, was US$145.0 billion at the end of 2025, up 6.6% in a year.
- Who says The World Bank, the global development lender, published the figure on Thursday 5 November 2026.
- The pressure Debt payments took 19.3% of export earnings in 2025, up from 17.6% in 2024.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a betting platform, gives Tinubu 67.5% to win the next presidential election (6 Nov, 1:52 p.m. ET).
Nigeria’s total external debt, meaning everything the government, companies and banks owe to lenders abroad, reached US$145.0 billion at the end of 2025, the World Bank said on Thursday 5 November 2026. The figure is 6.6% above the US$136.0 billion of a year earlier; the government’s own share, debt it borrowed or guaranteed, was US$56.9 billion.
For US investors, the number shows how much of Nigeria’s foreign debt sits outside government books and how costly it is to service. It matters to anyone who holds Nigerian Eurobonds, the dollar bonds that Nigeria sells to international investors.
What the World Bank Reported
The World Bank published the figure in its International Debt Report 2026, which tracks the borrowing of low- and middle-income countries. Its data show Nigeria’s external debt, meaning money owed to lenders outside the country, at US$145.0 billion for 2025.
Debt that the government borrowed or guaranteed was US$56.9 billion, up 13.2% from US$50.2 billion in 2024. Private borrowers without a state guarantee owed US$54.5 billion, down from US$57.5 billion, while short-term debt rose to US$28.1 billion from US$22.2 billion.
Bonds issued by the public sector, including Eurobonds, stood at US$19.4 billion, up from US$18.0 billion. Loans from commercial banks to the government or its agencies more than doubled to US$5.0 billion from US$2.2 billion.
Debt Is Larger but Slightly Lighter
Measured against the size of the economy, Nigeria’s external debt fell to 51.5% of gross national income, the total income of its citizens and firms, from 55.1% in 2024. Measured against export earnings it fell to 211.9% from 221.4%.
The cost of paying it back moved the other way. Debt service, the interest and principal paid each year, rose to 19.3% of export earnings in 2025 from 17.6% in 2024.
The Global Picture
Nigeria’s rise came as developing countries’ external debt jumped 5.5% to a record US$9.4 trillion in 2025, the fastest pace since 2021, according to the World Bank. These countries paid US$1.4 trillion in principal and interest in 2025, up 1.9% and the fifth rise in a row.
The bank said private lenders returned and bond markets reopened, but the cost of borrowing stayed high. Countries that qualify for the bank’s concessional loans, which carry below-market interest, paid an average of 8.2% on new private loans in 2025, the highest rate since 1989.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a platform where people bet real money on events, Bola Tinubu trades at 67.5% to win Nigeria’s next presidential election and Peter Obi, a leading opposition figure, at 26.0%. About US$153,000 has been traded on that market as of 1:52 p.m. ET on 6 November.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold Nigerian Eurobonds, the data show a public-sector bond stock of US$19.4 billion that is growing slowly and a heavier annual repayment bill. Higher debt service leaves less export income for imports, which can weigh on the naira, Nigeria’s currency.
If you run a business that sells to Nigeria, note that US$54.5 billion of the total is private debt, so many firms carry their own dollar repayments. Travellers and expatriates are not directly affected, but a weaker currency raises local prices over time.
What Is Not Known
The World Bank figure covers the whole country, public and private, so it is far larger than the roughly US$54.5 billion of government external debt that Nigeria’s Debt Management Office reported for 30 June 2026 (US$51.9 billion at 31 March). The two measure different things and dates and should not be compared.
The 2024 base is also higher than in an earlier World Bank dataset, which showed US$108.8 billion before this update. It is also not known how new foreign loans that President Tinubu has sought from the Senate, Nigeria’s upper house of parliament, will change the picture, since they fall after 2025.
Final figures for 2025 may be revised in later editions of the report.
More: Nigeria news in English, every day from The Rio Times. See also what new loans could mean for each Nigerian.
Frequently Asked Questions
How Much Foreign Debt Does Nigeria Owe?
The World Bank puts Nigeria’s total external debt, public and private combined, at US$145.0 billion at the end of 2025. That is up 6.6% from US$136.0 billion a year earlier.
Is All of It Government Debt?
No, about US$56.9 billion was borrowed or guaranteed by the public sector. Most of the rest was owed by private borrowers without a state guarantee or was short-term debt.
Is Nigeria’s Debt Burden Getting Lighter?
Debt relative to national income fell to 51.5% from 55.1%, and relative to exports to 211.9% from 221.4%. Yearly debt service rose to 19.3% of export earnings from 17.6%.
What Is the International Debt Report?
It is the World Bank’s yearly report on the external debt of low- and middle-income countries. The 2026 edition was published on Thursday 5 November 2026.
Sources: World Bank, press release on the International Debt Report 2026, 5 November 2026; World Bank, International Debt Statistics, Nigeria series DT.DOD.DECT.CD and related series, updated 5 November 2026; Polymarket, Nigerian Presidential Election Winner market, 6 November 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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