Stable inflation forecasts for 2023-2025: Brazilian central bank’s highlights key market outlook
For two consecutive weeks, market experts have retained their inflation outlook for 2023 based on the recent Focus Bulletin released by the Central Bank.
The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) is anticipated to stand at 4.84% for the year, consistent with the previous week’s forecast.
For the year 2024, the projection indicates a reduction of 3.86% compared to 3.88% from the prior week.
Meanwhile, 2025’s forecast remains unchanged at 3.5%.
Simultaneously, there’s an expectation of consistency in the primary interest rate, Selic, projected at 11.75%.
This follows a period where the interest rate projection saw its first dip in eight weeks.
For the subsequent years 2024 and 2025, forecasts remain stable at 9% and 8.5%, respectively, according to contributors to the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outlook is positive.
Economists project growth of 2.29%, slightly up from the prior week’s estimate of 2.26%. Projections for 2024 indicate stable growth at 1.3%.
Currency projections also show an uptrend. Market professionals predict the dollar’s year-end value at R$ 4.93, a slight rise from the previous week’s R$ 4.90.
The Focus Bulletin, published every Monday, provides a comprehensive view of the previous week’s market forecasts.
It illustrates the weekly progression of various economic metrics, including price indices, inflation, economic activity, GDP, exchange rate, Selic rate, and more.
It’s worth noting that these projections are based on market views and not the official stance of the Central Bank.
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