Published Sunday, 25 October, 6:46 p.m. ET · Source: Ipsos, CeSID, Aleksandar Vučić, Kalshi
Key Facts
- Scene: Crowds filled Belgrade’s Slavija Square after Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) leader Aleksandar Vučić said his party lost.
- Count: Ipsos, a pollster, and CeSID, a Serbian election monitor, project the student-backed list at 52%, Vučić’s at 39.3%.
- Caution: These are projections from a 56% sample, not the official result.
- Next: The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Serbia’s election authority, has about four days to publish the official count.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, prices the Student List at 97% to win, 6:45 p.m. ET.
Large crowds poured into Slavija Square in Belgrade on Sunday night to celebrate after Aleksandar Vučić said his party had lost Serbia’s parliamentary election. Vučić leads the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which has governed for 14 years.
“We still do not have final results, but on the basis of a sample it is clear that we lost these elections,” Vučić said at his party’s headquarters. Our earlier report has his concession, and our projection story has the numbers.
Crowds Fill Belgrade’s Streets
Slavija is a large roundabout square in central Belgrade and a regular gathering point for the student-led protest movement, whose Student List ran in the election. By about 11:40 p.m. local time (6:40 p.m. ET) it was packed with people, some dancing the kolo, a traditional circle dance.
Celebrations were also reported in towns across the country, as supporters of the Student List, the ticket backed by the protesting students, claimed victory.
Ruling-Party Tent Camp Dismantled
The most striking scene came in Pionirski Park, a park in central Belgrade near the city assembly. Supporters of the Progressive Party had set up a camp of tents there, known locally as Ćacilend.
As Student List supporters entered the park, people began removing objects from the camp. One tent burned before the fire was put out.
What the Projection Shows
Ipsos and CeSID, working from 56% of their sample, project the Student List at 52% of the vote and Vučić’s list, called Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia, at 39.3%. That would translate into about 139 and 104 seats in the 250-seat National Assembly, Serbia’s parliament.
RIK has up to 96 hours after polls closed to publish the official result. Our election-day explainer sets out how the vote works.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, the Student List was priced at 97% to win the parliamentary election and the SNS-led list at 5%, at 6:45 p.m. ET on 25 October. The student contract had traded about 97,900 contracts and the SNS contract about 45,200.
Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and its prices are bets, not polls. On Polymarket, another exchange, a market on the Student List’s vote share gave 97% to a share of 50% or more, with about US$105,000 traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For readers in the United States, the vote could end 14 years of one-party dominance in a Balkan country that sits between the European Union, Russia and China. Investors in Serbian bonds and companies will watch how quickly a government forms and whether policy changes direction.
Travellers should expect crowds around Slavija and the city centre in the coming days.
What Is Not Known
The official RIK result, the final seat split and the list of parties that cleared the 3% entry threshold are not yet known. It is also unclear who will form the next government and how the Progressive Party will respond to the official count.
Our preview of the vote and the Serbia Election 2026 page carry the full background. We will update as RIK publishes partial counts.
Sources
Ipsos and CeSID projection of 25 October 2026 · Statement by Aleksandar Vučić, 25 October · Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Kalshi and Polymarket market data, 25 October 2026
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Serbia’s parliamentary election?
Ipsos and CeSID project the student-backed list at 52% and Vučić’s list at 39.3%. The official result from the electoral commission is still pending.
What is Ćacilend?
It is the nickname of a camp of tents that supporters of the ruling Progressive Party kept in Pionirski Park in central Belgrade. Crowds dismantled it on election night.