Serbia Projection Shows Students Winning 52%
Published Sunday, 25 October, 6:05 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) · Source: Ipsos, CeSID, Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Kalshi
Key Facts
- Projection: Ipsos, a polling firm, and CeSID, a Serbian election monitor, give the student-backed list 52%.
- Rival: Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list, led by his Progressive Party, gets 39.3%, about 104 of 250 seats.
- Status: A projection from a partial sample, not the official result.
- Next: The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), Serbia’s election authority, must publish the full count within about four days.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market, prices the Student List at 98% to win, about 6:00 p.m. ET.
A student-backed list is heading for a clear majority in Serbia’s parliamentary election, according to the first projection from Ipsos and CeSID. It puts the Student List at 52% of the vote and Aleksandar Vučić’s list at 39.3%.
The projection is an estimate, not the official count. Our Serbia Election 2026 coverage follows every step, and we reported earlier that Vučić said his list had lost.
What the Projection Shows
Ipsos is an international polling company, and CeSID, the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy, is a Serbian group that monitors votes. Together they released the projection on Sunday evening, after polls closed at 20:00 Central European Time (CET), which is 3:00 p.m. ET.
They give the Student List, which campaigns as “Students Win”, 52% of the vote and about 138 of the 250 seats in the National Assembly. Vučić’s list, “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia”, gets 39.3% and about 104 seats.
Reports differ by one seat on the student total, 138 or 139, so we give the rounded figure. A party needs 126 seats for a majority, so on these numbers the Student List would not need a coalition partner.
How Reliable Is an Early Projection?
A projection is built from a sample of polling stations, weighted to stand in for the whole country. The Sunday evening projection came from a partial sample, so it is not final.
The picture can still move as more stations report. The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK), the state body that runs the vote, counted only 203 of 8,392 polling stations when it published its first tally, which had Vučić’s list ahead. Early counts depend on which stations report first.
Why Turnout Matters
Turnout passed 67% an hour before polls closed, according to the interim figures. Many Serbians treated the vote as a verdict on Vučić’s rule.
The vote followed the November 2024 collapse of a railway station canopy in the Serbian city of Novi Sad, which killed 16 people. The disaster set off student-led protests that lasted almost two years and produced the Student List.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Kalshi, the Student List was priced at 98% to win the parliamentary election and the list led by Vučić’s long-ruling Serbian Progressive Party at 4% at about 6:00 p.m. ET on 25 October. The market had traded 142,530 contracts.
A separate Kalshi market prices a student vote share of at least 50% at 86%. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and its prices are bets, not polls. The two prices come from separate contracts and can add up to more than 100%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For a reader in the United States, a defeat for the leader who has dominated Serbia for over a decade would reshape the Western Balkans, a region of former Yugoslav states. It would also test Serbia’s ties with Russia and China against its long-stalled bid to join the European Union.
Investors in Serbian debt and companies should watch the final count and any coalition talks, because policy continuity is the open question.
What Is Not Known
The official RIK result and seat distribution are not yet known. We also cannot yet say which smaller lists cleared the 3% threshold, or how quickly a government could form.
Sources
Ipsos and CeSID projection of 25 October 2026 · Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia · Kalshi
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Serbian election, according to the projection?
The Ipsos and CeSID projection gives the Student List 52% of the vote and about 138 seats. Vučić’s list gets 39.3% and about 104 seats, but this is not the official result.
When will the official result be known?
The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) has roughly four days after polls closed to publish it. Partial RIK counts will arrive sooner.