Brazil Poll Gives Flávio 52% and Lula 48%
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Tuesday, 20 October, 8:13 a.m. ET · Source: Real Time Big Data poll, registration BR-02952/2026
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Tuesday 20 October, the polling institute Real Time Big Data released a runoff survey that puts Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by four points.
- The numbers Flávio has 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%, while raw totals read 48% to 45%, with 5% blank or null and 2% giving no answer.
- Margin of error 2 points either way at a 95% confidence level, so the two candidates’ ranges only just touch at 50%.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters were interviewed from 15 to 19 October, after the first round on 4 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 8:10 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at – and Kalshi at 0% (Lula: – and 100%), as of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The reports we reviewed do not say who paid for the survey, and the poll cannot capture any late shift in the last five days.
Live tonight
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The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
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Real Time Big Data, a Brazilian polling institute, says Flávio Bolsonaro leads President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 52% to 48% of valid votes in its latest Brazil election 2026 runoff poll. The survey was released on Tuesday 20 October, five days before the vote on Sunday 25 October.
Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, represents the conservative Liberal Party (PL). Lula, Brazil’s president, leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), and the latest Brazil election polls keep the race close.
What the Real Time Big Data Poll Found
The institute interviewed 2,000 voters from 15 to 19 October by telephone and online messages, InfoMoney reported. The margin of error is 2 points either way at a 95% confidence level, and the survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-02952/2026.
In raw totals, Flávio Bolsonaro has 48% and Lula has 45%, while 5% say they will vote blank or null and 2% gave no answer, according to Bloomberg Linea Brasil. Once blank, null and undecided answers are set aside, the split becomes 52% to 48% in valid votes.
How Valid Votes and Margins Work
Brazilian election results are counted in valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots. Pollsters publish that figure to match what the TSE will announce, while the raw total counts everyone interviewed.
A four-point gap with a 2-point margin of error means the two candidates’ ranges meet at 50%, which Bloomberg Linea Brasil described as a technical tie at the limit. The result is a snapshot of opinion on the days of the interviews, not a forecast.
Where the Race Stands Five Days Out
Flávio Bolsonaro finished first and Lula second in the first round on 4 October, with 47.03% and 45.16% of valid votes, Bloomberg Linea Brasil noted. That gap of about 2.2 million votes is the starting point for the runoff.
Exame headlined the survey as coming after the presidential debate hosted by broadcaster Band. Our Brazil runoff date guide explains how to follow the count on election night.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. A four-point lead inside a 2-point margin does not make either candidate a sure winner.
The winner will set Brazil’s course on trade, tariffs and relations with Washington for the next four years. Our poll tracker lists every survey so you can compare the institutes.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 22.5% (20 October, 8:10 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$188.8 million in total bets.
A separate Polymarket market on the margin of victory gives about 41.5% to a Flávio win by less than four points and 32.5% to a win by four to eight points. See our Brazil election odds page for live prices.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reports we reviewed do not name who commissioned the survey. It is also unclear whether the 5% of blank and null voters and the 2% with no answer will turn out on 25 October.
Any change in the final five days is not captured, because interviews ended on 19 October. Compare this survey with other runoff polls rather than reading it alone.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 52% to 48% of valid votes in the Real Time Big Data poll released on Tuesday 20 October. In raw totals it is 48% to 45%.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, five days after this poll was released. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 2 percentage points either way at a 95% confidence level. The four-point gap between the candidates sits at the edge of that margin.
How many voters were interviewed, and when?
Real Time Big Data interviewed 2,000 voters from 15 to 19 October. The survey is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-02952/2026.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, matching how the electoral court reports results. The raw total counts every voter interviewed.
Sources: InfoMoney, 20 October 2026; Bloomberg Linea Brasil, 20 October 2026; Exame, 20 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief