Why Colorados Won Paraguay but Lost Asunción

ANALYSIS · PARAGUAY

Paraguay’s Colorado Party had a record night and a bad one. On Sunday 4 October 2026 it won 187 of the 263 municipal races, its best result in the eight municipal elections since 1989. It also lost the capital, Asunción, which it had governed since 2019.

Both facts are true, and the second matters for 2028. Peña’s party now holds almost every town hall but has lost the one most closely watched by foreign investors and diplomats. This analysis explains the two results, and what each means for Peña, former president Horacio Cartes and the opposition.

All figures come from the preliminary count (TREP) of the electoral court, TSJE. Tribunals still have to judge the tally sheets and proclaim winners between 5 and 23 October.

Why the Colorados won the country

The Colorado Party, officially the National Republican Association (ANR), is conservative and was founded in 1887. It took 187 of 263 mayoralties, or 71%. In 2021 it won about 162, and its low points were 130 in 2010 and 145 in 2015 (La Nación).

It also won votes, not just seats: 1,518,701, or 51.14%, up about 12% from 2021. Turnout was 58.90% of 5,041,754 registered voters (La Nación).

The party took 52 districts that the opposition held in 2021, including Encarnación, Presidente Franco, Minga Guazú and Mariano Roque Alonso. It also won 11 of the 17 departmental capitals. The opposition’s wins included Asunción, Ciudad del Este, Villarrica, Caacupé, Pedro Juan Caballero and Filadelfia (La Nación). The 52 are gross gains: the Colorados also lost districts to the opposition.

The reason is organisation. The Colorados run Paraguay’s biggest machine and hold the presidency. That is our reading of the numbers, not a finding of the electoral court.

Why they lost the capital

In Asunción the margin was 5,024 votes: Núñez 133,325 (47.78%), Pérez 128,301 (45.98%). The Colorado candidate led early and the trend turned after about 6:30 p.m. local time (ABC Color, Diario HOY).

Two things stand out. First, the Colorado council list did better than Pérez. A Paraguayan press tally gives List 1 about 149,000 votes against his 128,301, a gap of about 20,900. Pérez himself spoke of about 20,000 “crossed votes” and “a tremendous betrayal” by some of his own party’s council candidates.

Second, Núñez drew Colorado voters. She says she won “with Colorado votes” (ABC Color). She is a former housing minister in the government of Cartes, which may have helped. See our profile of Núñez.

The polls missed. Two September surveys had Pérez 18 to 24 points ahead. In the city council the preliminary count still gives the Colorados 15 of the 24 seats, so voters split their ballots (Infobae).

What it means for Peña and Cartes

Peña, the president, did not concede Asunción on Sunday night. He called the margin very tight and said there was much to analyse (Infobae, Última Hora). He is barred from running again, and his authority in the party depends partly on delivering votes for the next candidate.

Cartes leads the dominant Honor Colorado faction. On Monday critics blamed him. Senator Lilian Samaniego, a party dissident, said he is the only one responsible for the Asunción defeat, and ex-president Nicanor Duarte Frutos called for “ferocious self-criticism” (ABC Color, Última Hora). Senate president Bachi Núñez called the result a prelude to 2028 and also asked for self-criticism.

We found no direct statement from Cartes in the first day after the vote. His next move is a question mark for the 2028 nomination.

What it means for 2028

Cartes named Vice President Pedro Alliana as the Honor Colorado candidate in November 2025 (La Nación). Arnoldo Wiens of the Añetete faction, the camp of ex-president Mario Abdo, also wants the nomination (Última Hora).

On the opposition side, Reuters says Miguel Prieto, a 37-year-old lawyer who leads Yo Creo, is expected to run. Yo Creo held Ciudad del Este with 72.83% on Sunday. Read our profile of Miguel Prieto.

A municipal vote is not a presidential vote. Local races follow local logic, and the Colorados won the country by a wide margin. But the Asunción loss gives the opposition a story. It shows that a united alliance can beat the machine in the capital.

What Prediction Markets Say

No market covers the municipal races or the 2028 presidency. The only Paraguayan contract is a Kalshi market on the 2028 Senate election. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). At 5:41 p.m. ET on 5 October it priced the Colorado Party at 76% to win the Senate vote and the Liberal Party (PLRA) at 15%. Only 3,773 contracts had traded, so trading is thin. A contract pays US$1 if the outcome happens, so the price reads as a probability. These are bets, not polls.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What it means for US readers

For investors, the vote changes little. Paraguay’s president and Congress are not up until 2028, and Peña’s economic course is unchanged. Municipal results rarely move Paraguayan assets.

For US policy, the 2028 race is the one to watch. A Colorado win would keep Paraguay as Taiwan’s only ally in South America. A split party or an opposition victory would make that line less certain.

What is not known

We do not know the official result, which tribunals have not proclaimed. We do not know whether the 187 count will hold, or which councillors Pérez blames. We do not know who will be the Honor Colorado candidate in 2028, or what Cartes will do. The 20,900 figure is a press calculation on preliminary data.

How many mayoralties did the Colorado Party win?

The Colorados won 187 of 263 mayoralties on 4 October 2026, or 71%, a record for the eight municipal elections since 1989, by La Nación’s count of the preliminary results.

Why did the Colorados lose Asunción?

Opposition candidate Soledad Núñez won by 5,024 votes. The Colorado council list drew about 20,900 more votes than mayoral candidate Camilo Pérez, who blamed “betrayal” by some of his party’s councillors.

Does the result affect the 2028 presidential election?

Indirectly. President Peña cannot run again. Cartes backs Vice President Pedro Alliana, and the opposition’s Miguel Prieto is expected to run. A municipal vote is not a guide to a national one.

Did the opposition win anywhere else?

Yes. The opposition held Ciudad del Este, where Yo Creo’s Dani Mujica took 72.83%, and its wins included Villarrica, Caacupé, Pedro Juan Caballero and Filadelfia.

Does this change Paraguay’s ties with Taiwan?

No. Municipal races do not decide foreign policy. Paraguay remains the only South American country that recognises Taiwan, and President Peña backs that policy.

More: Paraguay election results page, Pérez concedes, who is Soledad Núñez, who is Miguel Prieto, who is Santiago Peña and Paraguay news in English.

Figures are preliminary TREP counts of the electoral court (TSJE), as reported by Paraguayan media. Quotes are translated from Spanish. Interpretations are the Rio Times’ own.

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