Oil Fund Edges Up 0.13% After a Week of Falls | Oil Wrap, Nov 6
Key Facts
- Oil fund is 12.5% below its peak: the WTI-tracking USO fund closed Friday, November 6, 2026 at US$148.41, 12.5% below its 12-month high of 169.53 set on 23 October.
- A brutal week, a quiet Friday: the fund fell 12.10% over five sessions, then edged up 0.13% as traders paused after a US-Iran peace rally.
- Petrobras is the casualty: its New York shares closed at US$18.53, -1.44% on the day, a fifth straight fall and 29.2% below the 26.16 peak of 23 October.
- Producers fell further than crude: Petrobras is down 26.76% in 20 sessions while the oil fund is up 0.14% over the same stretch.
- Peace is not signed: the US and Iran have not agreed a deal, so any collapse in talks could reverse part of this week’s fall.
- Latin America splits: Guyana, Argentina and Brazil keep growing output, but lower prices squeeze budgets in Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico.
Today’s Focus
Oil had one of its steepest weekly drops in recent memory as traders bet that the United States and Iran will strike a peace deal. The US-listed fund that tracks American crude, USO, closed Friday, November 6, 2026 at US$148.41, up 0.13% on the day but down 12.10% over five sessions.
The reason is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea lane through which a large share of the world’s oil ships. Hopes that it reopens fully pulled prices down even though attacks there have not stopped.
Latin America’s producers felt it unevenly. Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled giant, fell to US$18.53 (-1.44%), while Argentina’s YPF closed unchanged at US$38.66 and Colombia’s Ecopetrol edged up to US$15.55 (+0.06%).
What matters today. Oil is pricing in a peace that has not been signed, so any collapse in talks could reverse a good part of this week’s fall.
01 The session in one read
Friday, November 6, 2026 was the calm after a storm. The oil fund rose 0.13% to US$148.41 after losing 12.10% across five sessions.
Behind the drop is a simple bet: if the United States and Iran agree a deal, oil that has been stuck behind a war zone would flow again. Traders sold first and are now waiting for proof.
The week’s drop reflects hope rather than delivered barrels, and the fund’s tiny Friday gain looks like a pause after a sharp fall rather than a turn. Latin American producer shares, Petrobras above all, fell much harder than crude itself, which suggests investors were also unwinding earlier gains. The variable to watch is whether tanker traffic through Hormuz actually normalises after the US midterm elections.
02 The board
The fund that tracks American crude stands 12.5% below its 12-month high of 169.53, reached on 23 October, and 124.3% above its low of 66.17 on 16 December 2025. It has risen for two sessions in a row, a mild bounce inside a larger retreat.
Among Latin American producers, Petrobras lost -1.44% to US$18.53. Ecopetrol rose +0.06% to US$15.55, and YPF finished at US$38.66, unchanged at +0.00%.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$148.41 | +0.13% |
| Petrobras | US$18.53 | -1.44% |
| Ecopetrol | US$15.55 | +0.06% |
| YPF | US$38.66 | +0.00% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-06. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 168,498.45 | +1.39% | +9.89% | 166,191.45 | 169,073 | 165,910 | — |
| IPSA | 10,536.40 | +0.68% | — | 10,465.25 | 10,617 | 10,511 | — |
| IPC MEX | 70,968.43 | -0.17% | +13.16% | 71,087.56 | 71,469 | 70,635 | 145,640,378 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -4.19% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,485.26 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.50 | -0.17% | +2.56% | 5.51 | 5.53 | 5.48 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.13 | +0.07% | -0.35% | 6.13 | 6.17 | 6.12 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.60 | -0.84% | +0.04% | 18.76 | 18.81 | 18.57 | — |
| USD/CLP | 975.74 | -0.29% | +3.43% | 978.59 | 983.51 | 973.55 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,240 | +0.38% | -15.48% | 3,227 | 3,252 | 3,219 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.44 | -0.15% | +3.80% | 3.45 | 3.46 | 3.42 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | +0.00% | +6.50% | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.31 | +3.48% | +2.73% | 38.95 | 40.31 | 40.22 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,358 | +8.23% | -8.70% | 5,875 | 6,358 | 6,358 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.81 | +0.40% | +75.39% | 11.76 | 11.92 | 11.81 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.56 | +0.43% | -5.45% | 60.30 | 60.59 | 59.79 | — |
| USD/CRC | 448.27 | +1.89% | -8.45% | 439.97 | 449.63 | 448.27 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.24% | +2.07% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
First, and with the most weight, are the peace hopes. Reporting this week describes crude benchmarks sliding by roughly a seventh as talk of a US-Iran settlement grew, even while attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued. Confidence: high.
Second is shipping. Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. are asking Washington for licences to put sanctioned tankers back to work because a shortage of vessels has pushed freight costs to extraordinary levels. That shows physical oil is still hard to move even as paper prices fall. Confidence: medium.
The cross-asset check is mixed. The dollar index rose 0.72% to 102.28, a headwind for dollar-priced oil, and the US 10-year Treasury yield added 3 basis points to 4.87%. Yet the S&P 500 gained 0.31% to 7,377 and the VIX fear gauge dropped 9.01% to 25.64, so calmer markets let oil steady. Official US data from the Energy Information Administration (eia.gov) showed commercial crude stocks at 409.8 million barrels in the week to 30 October, 0.9 million lower than the week before.
Why did Petrobras fall again while oil rose? The best-supported reading is that its shares ran up alongside crude into 23 October and are now giving back the war premium faster than the commodity. Confidence: medium.
04 The trend behind it
Over 60 sessions the oil fund is still up 18.7%, so the long climb has not been erased. Over 20 sessions it is almost flat, up 0.14%, which means the peak-to-now fall has been sharp but recent.
Petrobras tells a harsher story. It is down 26.76% in 20 sessions and 15.96% in five, 29.2% below its October high, though 60.6% above its January low of 11.54.
History offers a guide, not a forecast. In our records since 2007, Petrobras has fallen this much in 20 sessions on 18 earlier occasions; 9 of them, or 50%, were higher 20 sessions later, the median change was -3.1% and the worst was -45.2%.
05 What it means for Latin America
Brazil, Guyana and Argentina are the structural winners of this decade, because their output keeps growing. Guyana is the region’s fastest-growing producer, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale field and its LNG project with Eni and XRG are advancing whatever the weekly price does.
Mexico’s Pemex carries heavy debt and falling conventional output, so cheaper oil hurts it more. Ecopetrol, down 9.54% in five sessions and 14.8% below its September high of 18.26, shows how Colombia’s budget leans on crude.
Venezuela is the wild card. India’s ONGC is negotiating to take over operations at two Venezuelan projects within six months, and sanctions relief is the key to higher output there. A peace-driven price fall would cut the prize for such deals.
06 The names to watch
Petrobras is the stock to watch: five straight falls, with 18.53 as the level on the fund-style chart that ties to its August close and 11.54 as the distant January floor. The 26.16 peak is resistance.
YPF is the calm one, flat at US$38.66, backed by Vaca Muerta growth rather than the war premium. Ecopetrol needs to hold above 15 to avoid a retest of the lower range after its 8.21% fall in 20 sessions.
07 What would end it
The fall ends if peace talks stall, because no deal has been signed and Hormuz oil flows remain at risk.
Watch the round number of 150 on the oil fund as nearby resistance, with 169.53 above it, and the 66.17 low far below. Honest answer: this pause may not last, because the market has priced a deal that officials have not delivered.
08 What to watch
- US-Iran talks: Any signed deal or collapse after the US midterm elections will move oil more than anything else.
- Sanctioned tankers: Washington’s reply to Trafigura, Vitol, Mercuria and ADNOC could ease freight costs.
- Petrobras: A sixth falling session would extend its slide further beneath the 23 October peak.
- Venezuela: ONGC’s talks and any sanctions relief show whether new supply is coming.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall this week?
Traders bet on a US-Iran peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although attacks there continue.
Is the USO price the price of oil?
No. USO is a fund that tracks American crude, so its dollar level is a proxy and only its direction reflects oil itself.
Why did Petrobras fall when oil rose?
Its shares had climbed with crude into 23 October and are now unwinding faster, down 26.76% in 20 sessions.
Is the fall over?
Not necessarily: no deal has been signed, so the risk of escalation remains.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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