Nunes Gains Upper Hand in São Paulo’s Mayoral Runoff

In the latest Datafolha poll, center-right Ricardo Nunes leads in a second-round runoff against leftist Guilherme Boulos.

Nunes, the current mayor of São Paulo, would receive 49% of the votes. Boulos, a federal deputy, would garner 36%. This gives Nunes a 13-point lead over Boulos.

Nunes has the backing of former President Jair Bolsonaro. This support is significant among conservative voters.

Boulos, however, is supported by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. This aligns Boulos with the leftist political spectrum. The division reflects national political polarization.

Datafolha conducted the survey between August 6 and 8, 2024. They interviewed 1,092 respondents from São Paulo.

The poll has a confidence interval of 95%. The margin of error is approximately 3 percentage points. Thus, Nunes holds a lead within this margin.

The poll also highlights voter preferences for the first round. Nunes and Boulos are nearly tied. Nunes stands at 23%, while Boulos is at 22%.

This indicates a competitive race. The poll reveals rejection rates as well. 35% of respondents would not vote for Boulos under any circumstances.

Datena follows with a 31% rejection rate. Marçal has a 30% rejection rate.

Nunes Gains Upper Hand in São Paulo’s Mayoral Runoff

Compared to a previous poll in early July, Nunes has seen a slight positive shift. He moved from 48% to 49% in the second-round scenario.

Boulos has decreased from 38% to 36%. The percentage of voters intending to cast blank or null votes increased slightly. It moved from 12% to 13%.

This electoral scenario in São Paulo mirrors broader political dynamics in Brazil. Traditional party lines and new political figures shape the electoral landscape.

Support from national leaders like Bolsonaro and Lula underscores the importance of these elections.

This is not just for São Paulo but also as a reflection of national political trends.

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