Nunes Edges Ahead in São Paulo’s Heated Mayoral Contest

A new survey from Paraná Pesquisas, released on Wednesday, shows São Paulo’s center-right mayor, Ricardo Nunes (MDB), leading the mayoral race.

The Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) is a centrist party in Brazil, known for its broad coalition approach and political pragmatism rather than strict ideology.

Nunes currently has 28.1% of the vote intentions. Hot on his heels, leftist federal deputy Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) has 24.2%.

The ideology of the PSOL party varies between the left and the far left. The programmatic elements found in the party are related to socialism, anti-capitalism, and anti-imperialism.

This survey is significant as São Paulo, being the largest city in Brazil and the Southern Hemisphere, plays a pivotal role in shaping national politics.

The polling firm interviewed 1,500 voters in person between May 24th and 28th. With a margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points, these results are significant.

This study is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number SP-05645/2024.

Key Survey Scenarios for São Paulo mayoral race

The survey tested three different scenarios, introducing new candidates like businessman Pablo Marçal (PRTB).

These additions make this poll’s results unique and not comparable to earlier versions.

First Scenario Results:

• Ricardo Nunes (MDB): 28.1%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 24.2%
• José Luiz Datena (PSDB): 12.1%
• Tabata Amaral (PSD): 9.1%
• Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 5.1%
• Kim Kataguiri (União): 3.4%
• Marina Helena (Novo): 3.2%
• Altino Prazeres Jr. (PSTU): 0.5%
• Fernando Fantauzzi (DC), João Pimenta (PCO), Ricardo Senese (UP): 0.1% each
• Blank votes: 7.8%
• No response: 6.2%

Second Scenario:

This scenario excluded minor party candidates, such as Fernando Fantauzzi (DC), João Pimenta (PCO), and Ricardo Senese (UP).

Their exclusion did not change the survey results significantly.

Third Scenario:

Here, José Luiz Datena was removed due to his withdrawal history, and Kim Kataguiri was excluded as he lacks formal party support. The results show:

• Ricardo Nunes (MDB): 33.1%
• Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 26.9%
• Tabata Amaral (PSD): 11.5%
• Pablo Marçal (PRTB): 6.9%
• Marina Helena (Novo): 4.1%
• Altino Prazeres Jr. (PSTU): 0.9%

Other Poll Insights

Other polls this week paint a dynamic picture. An AtlasIntel survey shows Boulos leading with 37.2% of votes, while Nunes has 20.5%.

Datafolha shows a technical tie: Boulos at 24% and Nunes at 23%.

These results highlight a competitive race, reflecting the diverse political landscape of São Paulo.

Understanding these dynamics is crucial as they could shape the future of both the city and Brazil.