New Zealand Poll Points to Hung Parliament
Key Facts
- Poll. Curia poll for a tax lobby group: governing National 28.9%, opposition Labour 28.4%, Greens 14.4%.
- Seats. Curia projects 60 of 120 seats for National's coalition bloc, and 60 for the left if new party Opportunity joins.
- When. Saturday, 7 November 2026. First results about 1 a.m. ET; official results due 27 November.
- Prediction markets. Crypto market Polymarket gives Labour's Chris Hipkins 60.5% and National's Christopher Luxon 36% to become prime minister (6:22 a.m. ET, 4 November).
New Zealand goes to the polls on Saturday with its two big parties level, and the newest poll points to a hung parliament, where neither side has a majority. The Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll, published on 4 November, puts the governing National Party on 28.9% and the opposition Labour Party on 28.4%, as our New Zealand general election hub tracks.
A Dead Heat in the Newest Poll
Curia, a New Zealand polling firm, ran the survey for the Taxpayers’ Union, a tax-campaign group. It asked 1,000 eligible voters between 28 October and 3 November (margin of error 3.1 points).
The Greens are on 14.4%, ACT (a free-market party) on 10.5%, NZ First on 9.8%, Opportunity on 5.8% and Te Pāti Māori on 1.1%. ACT and NZ First are National’s coalition partners, and Te Pāti Māori is a Māori-interest party.
That would give National 35 seats, Labour 34, the Greens 18, ACT 13, NZ First 12, Opportunity 7 and Te Pāti Māori 1. National, ACT and NZ First together would hold 60 of 120 seats, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 53.
Why a Small Party Holds the Balance
Curia groups Opportunity with the left, and its seven seats would lift that side to 60, level with the right and short of a majority. The projection leaves out overhang seats, which arise when a party wins more local seats than its party vote entitles it to.
The latest 1News–Verian poll, run by the polling firm Verian for the 1News television service between 29 October and 2 November, shows a similar picture. It has National on about 30% and Labour on about 29%.
Opportunity is a newer party led by Qiulae Wong, and it polls at 6% in that survey. Wong has said it would speak first to whichever party holds the most seats.
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Leaders React as the Campaign Closes
In the Curia poll, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon leads as preferred prime minister on 23.8%, up 2.6 points. Labour leader Chris Hipkins is on 22.6%, up 1.6 points, followed by NZ First leader Winston Peters on 10.3%.
Hipkins questioned the poll’s credibility, though he said all polls point to a close election. Luxon has said the only poll that matters is the election itself.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based trading platform, the “Next Prime Minister of New Zealand” market priced Hipkins at 60.5% and Luxon at 36.0% at 6:22 a.m. ET on 4 November, with US$180,553 traded. A separate market on which party wins the most seats priced National at 63.5% and Labour at 33.0%.
A third market, on which coalition forms the next government, priced National with ACT and NZ First at 48.5% and Labour with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori at 25.5%. The three markets ask different questions, so their prices do not line up neatly.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Police Look Into a Vote-Splitting Campaign
Police are making inquiries into businessman Harry Mowbray’s “Split Your Vote” campaign, which urges centre-right voters to back National’s local candidate but give their party vote to ACT or NZ First, after a referral from the Electoral Commission, the state body that runs elections, Detective Senior Sergeant Andrew Compton said. Mowbray says he believes the referral came from a slow reply to the commission, and National has complained to the commission about the campaign.
What It Means for US Readers
Preliminary results begin about 1 a.m. ET on Saturday, so US readers can follow the count overnight. The Electoral Commission’s results site, elections.nz, will carry the official figures.
A hung parliament could mean days of coalition talks before New Zealand names a prime minister. We have not verified any US streaming options for the count.
What Is Not Known
Overhang seats are not in the Curia projection, and the outcome of the Māori electorate contests (seats for voters on the Māori roll) remains uncertain. Which bloc reaches a majority could therefore differ from any poll’s seat count.
Polling places are reported to open from 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Zealand time, which we could not confirm with the Electoral Commission itself. Which party Opportunity would back after the vote is also not known.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does New Zealand vote?
New Zealand votes on Saturday, 7 November 2026. Preliminary results begin about 1 a.m. ET that day.
What does the newest poll show?
The Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll has National on 28.9% and Labour on 28.4%. It projects 60 seats for each bloc, with Opportunity grouped with the left.
Sources: New Zealand Electoral Commission (elections.nz); Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll, published 4 November 2026; 1News–Verian poll, fieldwork 29 October to 2 November 2026; New Zealand Police statement; Polymarket, 4 November 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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