New Zealand’s Final Poll Shows a Dead Heat
Key Facts
- Poll. Final 1News-Verian poll: centre-right National 30%, centre-left Labour 29%, Greens 16%; 9% undecided.
- Seats. Governing National, ACT and NZ First would hold 58 of 121, three short of a majority.
- Prediction markets. Crypto platform Polymarket gives National 70%, Labour 27.5% to win most seats (10:22 a.m. ET, 3 Nov).
- Next. Polls close Saturday, 7 Nov, 7 p.m. in New Zealand (1 a.m. Eastern Time); official results 27 Nov.
New Zealand heads into the weekend with a country split almost exactly down the middle. In the final 1News-Verian poll, published on 3 November 2026, National leads Labour by one point, four days before the New Zealand general election.
1News is the news service of the state broadcaster TVNZ, and Verian is a polling company. It questioned 1,006 eligible voters between 29 October and 2 November, with a margin of error of ±3.1 points, which means a one-point lead is within the noise.
Why the Final Poll Is a Dead Heat
National, the centre-right party led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, is on 30%, up one point. Labour, the centre-left opposition led by Chris Hipkins, is on 29%, up two.
The Greens, a left-wing party, stand at 16%. National’s coalition partners are slipping, with ACT, a free-market party, at 10% and NZ First, a populist party led by Winston Peters, at 8%, each down two points.
The Opportunity Party, a small party, holds 6%, unchanged. Te Pāti Māori, a party that represents Māori voters, is at 0.4%, and undecided voters have fallen two points to 9%.
Who Would Hold the Balance of Power
New Zealand elects its 121-seat Parliament by proportional vote, so seats follow each party’s share. On these numbers National would hold 36 seats, ACT 12 and NZ First 10, a total of 58 for the governing coalition.
That is three short of the 61 needed and down from 61 in last week’s poll. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold between 56 and 60 seats, depending on how the Māori seats are counted.
Opportunity, whose leader is Wong, would hold seven seats and the balance of power.
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What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders put National at 70% and Labour at 27.5% to win the most seats, with US$143,621 traded. A separate market on the next prime minister has Luxon at 51% and Hipkins at 46%, with US$157,144 traded.
Prices were read at 10:22 a.m. ET on 3 November 2026. The markets lean further towards National than the poll does, a gap that shows how closely traders are watching the coalition maths.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Leaders’ Final Appeals
Luxon told voters that the only poll that matters is the election itself on Saturday. Hipkins said Labour has developed some real momentum.
Peters, the NZ First leader, dismissed the polls. Wong has said she will talk first with whichever major party wins the most seats.
In a close result, final seat counts may have to wait for special votes, ballots cast outside a voter’s home area.
What It Means for US Readers
Voting closes on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 7 p.m. in New Zealand, about 1 a.m. ET, so US readers can follow the count from the early hours of Saturday. Official results are due on 27 November.
A close count may not settle the outcome on election night. Our New Zealand election hub gathers every report on the vote and the coalition talks that follow.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Opportunity will clear the 5% vote share that usually gives a small party seats, or which major party it would back if the result is tight. Other pollsters may differ from Verian.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the final 1News-Verian poll show?
National is on 30% and Labour on 29%. The governing coalition would hold 58 of 121 seats, three short of a majority.
When does New Zealand vote?
New Zealand votes on Saturday, 7 November 2026. Polls close that evening, about 1 a.m. ET, and official results are due on 27 November.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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