Mexico’s Refinery Dream Falters as Pemex Struggles

Pemex, Mexico’s state oil giant, processes 898,153 barrels of crude daily, hitting just 45% capacity in February, the company reports. The new Olmeca refinery in Tabasco, a $18 billion project, limps at 2%, refining only 6,797 barrels daily.

This flagship of ex-President López Obrador’s energy vision aims to cut Mexico’s 700,000-barrel fuel import reliance. Construction started in 2019 with an $8 billion budget, but costs ballooned, and delays pushed operations to 2024.

Last August, Pemex peaked at 1.013 million barrels daily, reaching 51% capacity across seven refineries. Yet, February 2025 shows a 4% drop from 2024, as maintenance and crude shortages hit hard.

The six older refineries once ran at 55% capacity, processing 882,187 barrels daily in 2024. Now, upgrades at Salina Cruz and Tula slow output further. Olmeca, meant to handle 340,000 barrels of heavy crude, hit 100,000 barrels daily in March, says director Víctor Rodríguez.

Rodríguez predicts 220,000 barrels daily by April, or 65% capacity, despite electrical failures and design fixes. Mexico exports 1.1 million barrels of crude daily, undermining self-sufficiency goals.

Pemex’s $102 billion debt looms large, with refining investments yielding little so far. President Sheinbaum, new in 2024, claims Olmeca nears 80% capacity, clashing with February’s dismal figures.

Analysts doubt full output before 2026, given persistent setbacks. The refinery promises 170,000 barrels of gasoline and 120,000 of diesel daily, yet delivers scant results.

Pemex targets 1.5 million barrels daily with its Texas plant included, but imports may linger at 300,000 barrels by 2030. Olmeca symbolizes ambition, yet its stumbles reveal a tough road for Mexico’s energy future.