Mexico’s Modest Economic Rebound in April Fails to Ease 2025 Growth Concerns
Mexico’s economy showed only a small improvement in April 2025, according to official data from Inegi. After a small drop in March, the economy grew by 0.5% in April.
This growth was better than experts expected, but it was not enough to change the overall slow trend seen this year. The services sector, which includes things like shops, restaurants, and transport, grew the most, with a 0.9% increase.
Industry, including factories and construction, grew by just 0.1%. However, agriculture and related activities shrank by 3.7%. Over the past year, the economy grew by 1.4%, but most predictions for the rest of 2025 are not very positive.
Mexico’s government expects the economy to grow between 1.5% and 2.3% this year. But the Bank of Mexico, the OECD, and the World Bank all predict much lower growth, with some forecasts as low as 0.1%.
These numbers show that there is little confidence in a strong recovery. Several problems are slowing Mexico’s growth. New U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports have made it harder for factories to sell goods abroad.
Mexico’s Economic Struggles Ripple Beyond Its Borders
Most of Mexico’s exports go to the United States, so any trade problems have a big impact. Investors are also worried about possible changes to laws and the country’s budget deficit, which is expected to be around 4% of GDP this year.
Inflation remains above the central bank’s target, with prices expected to rise by about 3.7% this year. The central bank has started to lower interest rates to encourage spending, but borrowing money is still expensive for many businesses and families.
Because of these challenges, companies are hiring fewer workers, and many people are finding it harder to get new jobs. Businesses are also investing less, which makes it difficult for the economy to grow faster.
Mexico’s slow growth affects not only its own people but also businesses and workers in the United States and other countries that rely on trade with Mexico. When the economy slows, there is less money for public services, and it becomes harder for families to improve their lives.
Key Facts
— Deep Dive
— For the complete picture, read our in-depth guide: Mexico Economy 2026: GDP, Peso, Nearshoring, Banxico and Trade
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