MEXICO · TRADE
Key Facts
- What is happening Mexico bought US$606 million more goods abroad than it sold in September 2026, a trade deficit, after a US$605 million surplus in August.
- Why it matters Non-oil exports to the United States rose 43.5% in September, and the US takes 84.8% of Mexico’s non-oil exports, so Mexico’s export surge is mostly a surge of goods into the US.
- The numbers Exports were US$77.8 billion, up 37.9%, and imports US$78.4 billion, up 33.1%. Market-data services had expected a deficit near US$400 million.
- Who is who INEGI is Mexico’s national statistics institute, which publishes the monthly trade figures. The USMCA is the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact, which Washington has not agreed to renew.
- What to watch INEGI publishes October trade figures on Friday, 27 November, and US Census Bureau data for September on US trade with Mexico is still to come.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives an 8.5% chance that the USMCA is formally extended by 31 December 2026 (28 October, 3:14 a.m. ET).
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
- What it means for you For US buyers of Mexican electronics and other factory goods, supply is growing fast; for investors, a deficit under 1% of monthly trade is small and the picture is mixed.
Mexico imported US$606 million more than it exported in September, ending a one-month surplus. Exports surged 37.9%, led by electronics and other non-automotive goods.
The Mexico trade deficit reached US$606 million in September 2026, the national statistics institute INEGI said on Tuesday, 27 October. In August the country had a surplus of US$605 million.
A deficit means Mexico bought more goods abroad than it sold. Exports still jumped 37.9% from a year earlier, and most of Mexico’s non-oil exports go to the United States.
What the September Trade Data Show
INEGI, short for Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, put exports at US$77.8 billion and imports at US$78.4 billion. Exports rose 37.9% from September 2025 and imports rose 33.1%.
Exports ran at about US$2.6 billion a day, close to July’s US$81.4 billion and August’s US$78.0 billion for the month. INEGI first reported a deficit of US$2.4 billion for September 2025.
Market-data services had expected a September deficit near US$400 million, so the gap came in about US$200 million wider. INEGI labels the figures “timely”, which means first estimates.
Why Mexico Swung to a Deficit
The surplus in non-oil goods shrank to US$2.7 billion from US$4.0 billion in August, INEGI says. The oil deficit stayed large at US$3.4 billion.
Oil imports were US$5.2 billion against oil exports of US$1.8 billion. Mexico’s export crude mix averaged US$92.00 a barrel, US$30.66 above September 2025.
Imports of intermediate goods, the parts and materials factories use to make other products, rose 38.8% to US$63.1 billion. They made up 80.4% of all imports from January to September.
After adjusting for seasonal patterns, INEGI still shows a surplus of US$1.1 billion for September. That compares with US$3.8 billion in August.
Electronics Lead the Export Surge
Exports of electrical and electronic equipment rose 94.7% from September 2025, the largest gain INEGI lists among manufactured goods. Manufactured exports overall reached US$72.8 billion, up 39.0%.
Automotive exports rose 5.7% to US$16.4 billion, with shipments to the United States up 8.5% and those to other markets down 7.4%. Non-automotive manufactured exports, a group that includes electronics, jumped 53.0% to US$56.3 billion.
Non-oil exports to the United States grew 43.5% in September, against 16.4% for the rest of the world. From January to September the United States took 84.8% of Mexico’s non-oil exports.
The US Side of the Ledger
The US Census Bureau, the federal statistics agency, lists US imports from Mexico of US$60.6 billion in August, its latest month. US exports to Mexico were US$33.7 billion, leaving a US deficit with Mexico of US$27.0 billion.
From January to August the US deficit with Mexico totalled US$155.9 billion. Each country records trade on its own basis, so the US and Mexican figures differ.
Trade Pact Talks Add Uncertainty
The USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020, held its first joint review on 1 July 2026. Canada and Mexico backed renewal, but the United States did not confirm an extension, the Congressional Research Service says.
The Congressional Research Service is the research arm of the US Congress. It quotes US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer: the United States “did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form.”
Annual reviews now follow until all three countries agree to a 16-year extension, or the pact expires on 1 July 2036. The three governments have announced no format or date for those reviews.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, gives the USMCA an 8.5% chance of formal extension by 31 December. That is the midpoint of the best buy and sell offers, 6% and 11%, at 3:14 a.m. ET on 28 October.
Only about US$11,700 has been traded in total, so the price is thin and can move on a few bets. It is a bet on the pact’s legal status, not on Mexico’s trade balance.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Mexico’s exports to the United States are growing fast, which keeps the US deficit with Mexico large at US$27.0 billion in August. That gap is a figure to watch in US tariff and USMCA talks.
A deficit of US$606 million is under 1% of September’s exports, and the adjusted balance is still a surplus. One month is a thin basis for a trend.
Background is in earlier reports on US-Mexico relations, Mexico’s hopes for US tariff cuts and Mexican exports to the US in August. The Mexico hub and a UN forecast of a 26% export rise add context.
What Is Not Known
INEGI’s bulletin gives no reason for the jump in electronics exports. Which products drove it, and whether that demand will last, is not known.
The US$400 million expectation comes from market-data services, and no named survey was found. The September figures are first estimates that INEGI can revise.
The Census Bureau’s September data on US trade with Mexico is not yet out. No date for the next USMCA annual review has been set, as of the Congressional Research Service report of 29 September.
What Comes Next
INEGI publishes October trade figures on Friday, 27 November. The Census Bureau will release September data for US trade with Mexico later.
In July Greer told a Senate trade panel his office may have interim options by the end of 2026. The Congressional Research Service reports this as a possibility, not a decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Mexico’s trade balance in September 2026?
Mexico ran a trade deficit of US$606 million in September, INEGI says. In August it had a surplus of US$605 million.
What drove Mexico’s 37.9% export growth?
Electrical and electronic equipment rose 94.7% and non-automotive manufactured goods rose 53.0%. Non-oil exports to the United States grew 43.5%.
Is Mexico’s trade deficit a problem?
A US$606 million gap is under 1% of September’s US$77.8 billion of exports. The seasonally adjusted balance was still a surplus of US$1.1 billion.
What is the USMCA?
The USMCA is the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that replaced NAFTA in 2020. The United States did not confirm an extension at the July 2026 review, so annual reviews follow.
What is INEGI?
INEGI, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, is Mexico’s national statistics institute. Its next trade release is on Friday, 27 November.
Sources: INEGI, Balanza Comercial de Mercancías de México, bulletin 638/26, 27 October 2026; INEGI, bulletin 568/25, 27 October 2025; US Census Bureau, trade in goods with Mexico; Congressional Research Service, USMCA joint review report R48787, 29 September 2026 (all accessed 28 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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