Mexico Exports to the US Hit Record US$60.6 Billion
MEXICO · TRADE
Key Facts
- —The country Mexico, the southern neighbour of the United States, is its biggest partner in goods trade in 2026, ahead of Canada and China.
- —What happened On Tuesday 6 October, US Census Bureau data showed Mexico exports to the US reached US$60.6 billion in August, a monthly record.
- —The trade gap The US goods deficit with Mexico was US$27.7 billion after seasonal adjustment, the largest with any country, ahead of Vietnam and Taiwan.
- —China’s place The gap with China was US$16.4 billion, fourth on the list, and US imports from China are down 16.3% so far in 2026.
- —The review On Monday 5 October, the US trade office opened public comments for the 2027 review of the USMCA, the North American trade pact.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives 37% to a 2026 US goods and services deficit of US$800 billion to US$900 billion (6 October, 1:34 p.m. ET).
Mexico exports to the United States hit a record US$60.6 billion in August, US Census Bureau data released on Tuesday 6 October show. After seasonal adjustment, the US goods deficit with Mexico was US$27.7 billion, the largest with any country that month.
Mexico supplied 18% of all goods the US imported in August, more than twice China’s share. The figures arrive as Washington gathers comments for the next yearly review of the USMCA, the pact setting North American trade rules.
What the Census Bureau Reported
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, two agencies of the US Commerce Department, publish the monthly trade report. Their August release puts the total US deficit in goods and services at US$105.6 billion, up US$12.7 billion from July.
Not adjusted for seasonal swings, Mexico exports to the US came to US$60.6 billion, up 34.2% from August 2025. That beat July’s US$60.5 billion, the previous high in Census records going back to 1985.
US sales to Mexico rose 15.3% to US$33.7 billion. The unadjusted gap of US$27.0 billion was also the widest monthly figure in that series.
After seasonal adjustment, the Census Bureau put the August deficit with Mexico at US$27.7 billion. Vietnam followed at US$24.0 billion, then Taiwan at US$18.3 billion and China at US$16.4 billion.
From January to August, US imports from Mexico rose 18.3% to US$419.3 billion, while US exports there grew 16.6% to US$263.5 billion.
Over those eight months, the unadjusted gap with Vietnam is slightly larger, at US$163.9 billion against US$155.9 billion for Mexico.
Electronics, Not Cars, Drive the Jump
Mexico’s own figures show what is behind the surge. INEGI, the national statistics institute, reported on Monday 28 September that Mexico exports rose 40.4% in August to US$78.0 billion.
In the INEGI report, non-oil shipments to the United States rose 45.2%, and electrical and electronic equipment exports more than doubled. Car and auto-part exports to the US fell 1.0%.
The US data point the same way. Imports of what the Census Bureau calls advanced technology products, such as computers and telecom gear, from Mexico reached US$26.0 billion in August.
That is about 43% of everything the US bought from Mexico that month, against US$4.6 billion of such goods from China. From January to August, these imports from Mexico rose 62.2% to US$151.4 billion.
Mexico has also raised its own wall against Chinese cars. Since 1 January 2026, it charges a 50% tariff on light vehicles from China and other countries without a trade deal with Mexico.
The decree, published in the Diario Oficial, Mexico’s official gazette, on Monday 29 December 2025, covers 1,463 product lines, the Guadalajara daily Informador reported. Besides China, it hits countries such as South Korea, India, Indonesia and Thailand.
A New Review of the North American Pact
The USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, took effect on 1 July 2020. At its first joint review in July 2026, the United States did not agree to extend it for a new 16-year term.
That leaves the pact under yearly reviews. On Monday 5 October, the US Trade Representative’s office posted a call for public comments for 2027 in the Federal Register, the official US journal.
Comments are due by Tuesday 12 January 2027, and the hearing date will be posted later. The office asks about investment and about cooperation on “non-market policies and practices of other countries.”
Marcelo Ebrard, economy secretary in President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government, said Mexico’s main goal is lower US tariffs on its cars, steel and aluminium. He spoke in a radio interview that La Jornada, a Mexico City daily, reported on Tuesday 6 October.
José Medina Mora heads the Business Coordinating Council, Mexico’s main business lobby. He said rules of origin and labour issues have been pushed to next year’s process.
Rules of origin set how much of a product must be made in North America to cross the borders duty-free.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket is a platform where people bet real money on future events. Its leading band for the full-year 2026 US goods and services deficit is US$800 billion to US$900 billion.
Bettors gave that band a 37% chance at 1:34 p.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October. About US$24,900 has been bet on the market, which settles on the annual figure due in early 2027.
For the first eight months of 2026, the overall US deficit is 19.9% smaller than a year earlier, the August release shows.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
For American companies, the data confirm that Mexico exports more goods to the US than any other country. Any change to the USMCA or to US tariffs on Mexican goods will reach their supply chains fast.
For investors in US firms with plants in Mexico, the 2027 review is the next big date. US companies and other interested parties can file their views with the US trade office until 12 January.
The record does not mean trade is free of friction. Ebrard’s push to cut US tariffs on Mexican cars, steel and aluminium shows how much is still at stake for Mexico exports.
What Is Not Known
The August release groups goods into broad categories and does not name the products behind the jump in Mexico exports to the US. The figures will also be revised; this release raised total July goods imports by US$4.4 billion.
The US trade office has not yet set the date of its public hearing. It is also unclear whether Washington will use the wider gap with Mexico as an argument in the review.
The next US trade report, covering September, is due on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the US trade deficit with Mexico so large?
The United States buys far more from Mexico than it sells there. In August, Mexico exports to the US were US$60.6 billion and US sales to Mexico US$33.7 billion, before seasonal adjustment.
Do most Mexican goods pay US tariffs?
Goods that meet USMCA rules can enter the US duty-free. El Financiero, a Mexican business daily, reported that 83% of Mexican goods that entered the US in August paid no tariff under the pact.
What is the USMCA review?
The three countries must review the pact jointly. The United States declined a 16-year extension in July 2026, so reviews now happen every year. The US trade office is gathering comments for 2027.
Where does China stand in US trade now?
China supplied 8.1% of US goods imports in August, behind Mexico and Canada. US imports from China fell 16.3% in the first eight months of 2026 compared with a year earlier.
Sources: US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026, 6 October 2026; US Census Bureau: FT-900 release, August 2026 (exhibits 14, 16a and 19), 6 October 2026; US Census Bureau: Trade in Goods with Mexico, 6 October 2026; Federal Register (USTR): Request for Public Comments, 2027 USMCA joint review, 5 October 2026; INEGI: Balanza Comercial de Mercancías de México, agosto 2026, 28 September 2026; La Jornada: Convoca EU a la revisión del próximo año, 6 October 2026; La Jornada: Posponen el diálogo sobre reglas de origen y temas laborales del T-MEC, 6 October 2026; El Financiero: Exportaciones de México a EU marcan récord en agosto, 6 October 2026; Diario Oficial de la Federación: Decreto por el que se reforman diversas fracciones arancelarias de la Tarifa de la LIGIE, 29 December 2025; Informador: DOF publica lista de productos que tendrán impuesto de hasta el 50% en 2026, 29 December 2025.
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