MEXICO · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- What INEGI, Mexico's statistics agency, publishes October inflation today, listed for 12:00 UTC (7 a.m. ET).
- Expected The RT market-data calendar forecasts annual inflation of 3.65%, up from 3.45% in September.
- Why it matters The central bank cut its rate to 6.25% on 5 November, so a hotter reading would test that call.
- Peso The peso trades near 18.58 per US dollar this morning.
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction market, gives 93.5% to no central bank rate change on 17 December (US$10,305 traded, 1:05 a.m. ET, 9 November).
Mexico gets a key inflation number today, four days after its central bank cut interest rates in a split vote. If prices rose faster than expected, the case for that cut gets harder to defend.
For US readers, the number matters because Mexico is one of America's biggest trading partners. It sets the interest rate behind the peso that US importers, investors and travellers deal with.
What Mexico Publishes Today
INEGI, Mexico's national statistics agency, releases the consumer price index for October on Monday 9 November 2026. The RT calendar lists the release for 12:00 UTC, which is 6:00 a.m. in Mexico City and 7:00 a.m. on the US East Coast.
Annual inflation measures how much more a basket of goods costs than a year earlier. Core inflation strips out volatile items such as fuel and some food, so it shows the underlying trend.
In plain English
INEGI: the government agency that counts prices, jobs and output in Mexico.
Banxico: Banco de México, the central bank, which sets the main interest rate.
What the Early Numbers Say
INEGI already published the first half of October on 22 October. Annual inflation was 3.62%, up from 3.45% for the whole of September, and prices rose 0.41% over the two weeks.
Core inflation was 3.78% a year. Prices outside the core, which swing more, rose 3.08%.
The RT calendar, a market data service, forecasts October annual inflation of 3.65% and core inflation of 3.76%. That would be a monthly rise of 0.5% for the headline figure and 0.2% for core.
Banxico aims for 3% inflation with a tolerance of one point either side. A print near 3.65% would sit inside that band but above the target.
Why the Number Tests the Rate Cut
On Thursday 5 November Banxico cut its key interest rate by a quarter point to 6.25%. Three of five board members backed the cut, and two wanted to keep 6.50%.
The bank said it sees no demand pressure and expects to hold the rate for an extended period. It also raised its fourth-quarter inflation forecast to 3.7% from 3.5%.
Our report on the rate cut has the full vote and Banxico's reasoning. The next decision is on 17 December.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, gives 93.5% to no change at the 17 December meeting and 6.5% to another quarter-point cut. The no-change market had about US$10,305 traded as of 1:05 a.m. ET on 9 November (US$21,143 across all December decision markets), and these prices are bets, not polls.
A second Polymarket market covers Mexico's annual inflation rate in December 2026. It gives 59.5% to a rate between 3.50% and 3.99%, 22.5% to 4.00% to 4.49%, and 9.6% to 3.00% to 3.49%, with US$114,519 traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
If you hold peso assets, watch core inflation first. A core reading above forecast would add to doubts about the cut, and the peso could soften.
If you travel to Mexico or pay Mexican suppliers, the peso near 18.58 per US dollar is the number to note, as RT data show it a little stronger than the 18.76 of 5 November. Rate decisions move the peso slowly, so one data release rarely changes your costs.
What Is Not Known
The October figure is not out yet, and forecasts can miss by a tenth of a point or more. It is also unclear how much of the early-October rise came from one-off items such as electricity.
Banxico publishes the minutes of its 5 November meeting on 19 November. They may show how the two dissenters argued their case.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times. Related: Mexico's central bank cuts rate to 6.25%.
Frequently Asked Questions
When Is Mexico's October Inflation Data Released?
INEGI publishes it on Monday 9 November 2026. The RT calendar lists 12:00 UTC, which is 6 a.m. in Mexico City and 7 a.m. ET.
What Is Mexico's Inflation Rate Now?
Annual inflation was 3.45% in September and 3.62% in the first half of October. The RT calendar expects 3.65% for the full month.
What Is Banxico's Interest Rate?
The target rate is 6.25%, effective 6 November 2026, after a 3-2 vote for a quarter-point cut. The next decision is on 17 December.
Sources: INEGI, consumer price index calendar and bulletins; Banco de México, monetary policy announcement of 5 November 2026; RT economic calendar and FX data; Polymarket.
In depth
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. How we use AI · Report an error