Mexico Consumer Spending Flat, Manufacturing Jobs Sag
Mexico · ECONOMY
Key Facts
—Consumer spending: INEGI nowcast showed 0.0% monthly change in July 2026.
—Manufacturing jobs: down 1.55% year-on-year in June, 40 straight months.
—Formal employment: 22,760,154 IMSS posts at July 31, 2026.
—Banxico rate: held at 6.50% on August 6, 2026.
—Avocado season: Michoacan closed 2025-26 at 1,462,973 tonnes.
—Cargo theft: Operativo Balam recorded 856 robberies in 2025, down from 1,363.
Household spending stalled in July and manufacturing employment keeps falling. The central bank held its rate as inflation eased.
Mexico’s consumer and industrial sectors are cooling, with household spending stagnant in July and manufacturing employment extending a 40-month decline. The central bank held its benchmark rate unchanged as inflation slowed.
Household spending stalls
Mexico’s household consumption is losing momentum. INEGI’s Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado, a nowcast of private consumption, showed 0.0 percent month-on-month in July 2026, published August 14, 2026.
That marks stagnation after a 0.2 percent monthly rise in June, according to the same indicator. Year-on-year, the nowcast grew 2.2 percent in July, down from 2.5 percent in June.
BBVA’s index covers total private consumption; the peso-dollar rate for the period is not published.
Manufacturing employment keeps falling
Manufacturing employment contracted for the 40th consecutive month in June 2026. The workforce fell 1.55 percent year-on-year, according to INEGI’s Monthly Manufacturing Industry Survey (EMIM).
On a monthly basis, employment rose 0.13 percent in June, but the annual streak remains negative. The June decline improved from a 2.1 percent annual fall in May, yet the trend is still downward.
The last month of year-on-year growth was February 2023, but no source confirms that.
Formal jobs growth slows
Formal employment at the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) reached 22,760,154 posts at the end of July 2026. That is the highest for any July on record, according to El Economista and Expansion.
July saw a drop of 19,550 posts from June. Over the first seven months of 2026, only 243,078 new jobs were created, the highest for any January-to-July period on record.
Expansion noted the July decline of 19,550 posts was the steepest monthly drop this year.
Inflation eases, Banxico holds
Annual inflation slowed to 3.12 percent in July 2026, the lowest since May 2020, according to INEGI data published August 7, 2026. Monthly consumer prices rose 0.03 percent, and core inflation was 3.95 percent year-on-year.
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) kept its benchmark rate at 6.50 percent on August 6, 2026. The bank cited persistent core inflation and global uncertainty for the pause.
Core inflation rose 0.23 percent monthly in July, also the lowest since May 2020, according to the same INEGI release.
The 6.50 percent benchmark rate has held since the previous decision, with the bank citing global uncertainty.
Avocado season closes with strong volume
Michoacan closed its 2025-2026 avocado season with production of 1,462,973 tonnes, according to the Agriculture and Rural Development Secretariat (Sader), as reported by Radio Mejor on August 17, 2026.
Of that total, 1,251,363 tonnes went to the United States and 211,610 tonnes to other markets. Michoacan holds about 70 percent of national avocado acreage.
No source compared this with the previous season.
Poultry imports draw producer complaints
Mexican poultry producers are pushing back against zero-tariff imports of Brazilian chicken. The National Union of Aviculturists (UNA) says imports of deboned breast rose from about 90,000 tonnes in 2022 to over 196,000 tonnes in 2025, a 118 percent increase.
UNA president Lorenzo Martin Martin argues the policy has not helped consumers. “When a producer stops growing, it is not just a farm that halts: jobs, purchases from suppliers, transportation, services, investment, and opportunities for families living in those communities all halt,” he said in a written petition to President Claudia Sheinbaum, issued as a communique on August 17, 2026.
The accumulated losses between August 2025 and August 2026 exceed 27 billion pesos; the peso-dollar rate is not published.
Education and security moves
The federal government doubled its target for new upper-secondary school places to 400,000 for the six-year term, up from 200,000. President Claudia Sheinbaum made the announcement on August 17, 2026, aiming to raise coverage from 80 to 90 percent, according to Excelsior.
The Operativo Balam security strategy, active in 12 states, recorded 856 cargo robberies in 2025 versus 1,363 in 2024, a 37.19 percent fall, according to National Guard commander Guillermo Briseno Lobera at the president’s morning conference on August 11, 2026. Authorities also recovered 1,005 vehicles in 2025, against 797 in 2024.
Balam also recovered 1,005 vehicles in 2025, up from 797 in 2024, according to the same source.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the latest data on Mexican consumer spending?
INEGI’s Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado showed 0.0 percent month-on-month in July 2026, indicating stagnation. Year-on-year, it grew 2.2 percent in July, down from 2.5 percent in June.
How is manufacturing employment performing in Mexico?
Manufacturing employment fell 1.55 percent year-on-year in June 2026, marking 40 consecutive months of annual declines. On a monthly basis, jobs rose 0.13 percent in June.
What did Banxico do with interest rates in August 2026?
The Bank of Mexico held its benchmark rate at 6.50 percent on August 6, 2026. Annual inflation was 3.12 percent in July, the lowest since May 2020.
What is the state of Mexico’s avocado season?
Michoacan closed the 2025-2026 season with 1,462,973 tonnes of production, according to Sader. Of that, 1,251,363 tonnes went to the United States and 211,610 tonnes to other markets.
Sources
- www.milenio.com
- eltiempomx.com
- expansion.mx
- www.eleconomista.com.mx
- www.reuters.com
- radio-mejor.com
- www.debate.com.mx
- www.excelsior.com.mx
- www.cronica.com.mx
- www.tyt.com.mx
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