Why MercadoLibre’s Future Now Rests on Its Bank, Not Its Store

Markets

A new analyst note argues that the case for owning MercadoLibre now leans less on the online store that made it famous and more on its MercadoLibre fintech arm, the app that lets millions of Latin Americans pay, save and borrow.

MercadoLibre is the closest thing Latin America has to a homegrown Amazon, and for years the story was simple. It sold things online, and it grew fast.

That story is now being rewritten. A report from Bloomberg Intelligence, published on Tuesday, argues that the company’s financial arm, Mercado Pago, will be the main engine of growth and profit in the years ahead.

The MercadoLibre fintech engine is pulling ahead

The analysts expect Mercado Pago’s revenue to grow by more than thirty percent this year and by close to forty percent next year. That is faster than the online store, and it should keep gaining ground on the rest of the business.

Over time, they see the financial arm drifting toward roughly half of all company sales. The reason this matters is margin.

Lending and payments tend to earn more per dollar than shipping parcels. A bigger financial arm should therefore lift overall profitability.

The raw scale is already large. In results published in May for the first quarter, Mercado Pago reported nearly eighty-three million monthly users, a rise of twenty-nine percent in a single year.

The Rio Times reviewed the company’s filing with American securities regulators. It shows the credit book grew by eighty-seven percent from a year earlier, to almost fifteen billion dollars, the largest jump the company has ever recorded in a single quarter.

A bank that reaches beyond its own shop

The most telling number is where the money moves. More than sixty percent of the payment volume Mercado Pago now handles happens outside its own marketplace, in ordinary shops, apps and cash registers across the region.

That is the signal the analysts seize on. It means the financial arm has grown into a genuine payments network in its own right, not just a checkout button bolted onto an online store.

Brazil is the heart of it. By size and by how quickly its people are adopting digital finance, the country holds much of the long-term promise, with Mexico and Argentina close behind.

Yet the path in Argentina has not always been smooth. Our reporting has shown that MercadoLibre has repeatedly clashed with the country’s Central Bank over rules it saw as hindering financial inclusion, most recently in 2023 when regulators tried to replace an instant debit feature with a system the company argued would set back digital payments.

The credit card is the newest lever. The company issued about 2.7 million of them in the first quarter and had already rolled out the product regionally, including Argentina, before late last year, and its chief executive has called the opportunity many times larger than its current size.

Why the shares fell while the business grew

Here is the puzzle. The business is expanding at its fastest pace in almost four years, yet the shares have had a poor year, sliding about sixteen percent and closing on Monday near seventeen hundred dollars.

The gap comes down to spending. The company is deliberately pouring money into free shipping, credit cards and technology, which squeezes short-term profit even as sales race ahead.

Wall Street is, for now, willing to look past that. Among the analysts tracked by Bloomberg, twenty-four rate the stock a buy and none rate it a sell, with an average twelve-month target well above where it trades today.

The optimists, at firms such as Jefferies and Morgan Stanley, see room for the shares to climb by a third or more. The more cautious houses set targets close to the current price, a reminder that the heavy spending is a bet, not a certainty.

What is the MercadoLibre fintech arm?

It is Mercado Pago, the app that lets people and small businesses pay, save, borrow and accept card payments. It began inside the online store and has since grown into a wide financial network used far beyond it.

Why does the shift toward fintech matter for investors?

Payments and lending generally earn more per dollar of revenue than online retail. If the financial arm keeps growing faster than the store, it should lift the whole company’s profitability over time.

Why did the stock fall if growth is so strong?

Management is spending heavily to grow, which lowers profit in the short run. The share price fell as investors weighed that spending, even as revenue grew at its fastest pace in almost four years.

More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many people use Mercado Pago every month?

Mercado Pago had 82.9 million monthly users in the first quarter of 2025, which is 29% more than a year earlier. Its credit book also hit $14.6 billion, the biggest single-quarter jump the company has ever recorded.

Why are MercadoLibre's shares down if the business is growing so fast?

The company is deliberately spending heavily on free shipping, credit cards, and technology, which squeezes short-term profits even as sales grow at their fastest pace in nearly four years. Investors reacted to that spending pressure, pushing the shares down about 16% in 2026 to around $1,693.

What do Wall Street analysts think about MercadoLibre's stock right now?

Of the analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 24 rate it a buy and none rate it a sell, with an average 12-month price target of $2,270.35, well above where the stock currently trades.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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