BRAZIL · ELECTION
Published Monday, 26 October, 7:40 a.m. ET · Source: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, Senate
Key Facts
- —The short version Lula won the presidency, but the right won more seats in Congress.
- —The biggest party Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won the largest bench in the lower house.
- —The deal makers A bloc of centre-right parties, the Centrão, decides most votes.
- —The tests ahead The 2027 budget, trade talks with Washington and the fight over Bolsonaro’s challenge.
Live tonight
Brazil’s runoff, live
The official TSE count for Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, updated every minute (voting closed at 7 p.m. Brasília, 6 p.m. ET).
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Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro – · Lula – (US$249 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 0.4% · Lula 99.6%
As of 25 October, 11:40 pm ET (03:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Lula won the keys to the presidential palace, but not the votes to rule easily. Three weeks before the runoff, Brazilians elected a Congress where the right is stronger than before, and that decides how much of his agenda he can pass.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won the most seats in the lower house, 121 of 513, and conservative parties expanded their ranks in the Senate too. The new members take their seats in February 2027.
Who Really Decides in Brasília
The key players are not the two big camps but the Centrão, a loose group of centre-right parties such as PP, União Brasil, Republicanos, PSD and MDB. They have backed presidents of the left and the right, and they usually back whoever offers them posts and budget money.
For Lula that means a bargain every time he needs a vote. He has done it before in his first two terms, but this time he starts with a bigger, more conservative Congress and a rival who says the election was stolen.
What Lula Can Do
Expect ministries and senior jobs for coalition partners, careful deals on budget amendments, and smaller bills instead of big reform packages. Where the law allows it, he can also act by decree and regulation.
The presidents of the two chambers, chosen early in 2027, will matter as much as any minister. Their backing helps, but it never guarantees every vote.
The Tests Ahead
The first big test is the 2027 budget: investors will watch whether Lula can keep spending under control and still pay for his promises. The second is Washington, where talks on the 25% US tariff will need steady support at home.
Bolsonaro’s challenge adds a wild card. Centrist parties may keep their distance from a fight over the vote, which could give Lula more room, or they may punish him if the dispute drags on.
It is too early to say. For the legal side, read whether Bolsonaro can overturn the election.
What It Means for US Readers
A divided Congress makes sweeping change on taxes or the state’s role in the economy harder, which many investors will welcome. It also makes Brazil less predictable on trade, because every deal needs partners who are not Lula’s natural allies.
See also how Washington reacts to Lula’s win.
A Split Country, a Split Vote
Brazil is almost evenly divided. Lula and Flávio each carried 13 states, and the first round on 4 October put Flávio ahead, 47.03% to 45.16%.
Voters were willing to choose a left-wing president and a conservative Congress at the same time.That explains the mood in Brasília.
Lula can say he has a mandate, but the lawmakers he needs can answer that their voters wanted something else.
Money Is the Language
In Brazil, Congress controls a large share of the federal budget through amendments that lawmakers direct to their home districts. A president who wants votes usually has to release that money on time.
That is why budget fights decide so much. A delay in payments can sink a bill, and a generous round can win a whole bloc of votes.
The Bolsonaro Factor
The right is not a single team. Flávio’s refusal to concede energises his base, but many conservative lawmakers care more about posts, money and local power than about overturning an election.
If the dispute fades, the Centrão may be quick to cut deals with Lula.Markets will be watching closely.
Brazil’s real traded near 4.98 to the dollar when markets reopened on Monday, after a sharp fall on the first news of the result.
What We Do Not Know
We do not know the final size of the right-wing bloc once parties shuffle after the election, who will lead the two chambers, or which parties will join Lula’s cabinet. Those answers come over the next three months.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Lula have a majority in Congress?
No. Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won the most seats in the lower house, and conservative parties grew in the Senate. Lula must bargain with centre-right parties to pass laws.
What is the Centrão?
It is a loose bloc of centre-right parties that tends to back the sitting government in return for posts and budget money. It decides many close votes in Brazil’s Congress.
When does the new Congress take office?
The new members take their seats in February 2027, a few weeks after the inauguration on 5 January.
Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) · Brazilian Chamber of Deputies · Brazilian Senate.
More: Brazil news, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief