Italy Politics Explained, Who Holds Power in 2026

ITALY · POLITICS

The Power Structure

Italy is a parliamentary republic where executive power rests with the Council of Ministers, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She has governed since October 2022 at the head of a right-wing coalition that includes her Brothers of Italy party and Matteo Salvini’s League.

This guide is part of The Rio Times series on European politics. See also our guides to Spain and Germany’s AfD debate.

President Sergio Mattarella serves as head of state, a largely ceremonial role that includes chairing the High Council of the Judiciary and serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The real legislative power lies with the bicameral Parliament, which must convert emergency decrees into law.

The Chamber of Deputies has 400 members, while the Senate has 200 elected members plus a variable number of senators for life. Both houses perform identical functions in Italy’s “perfect bicameral” system, meaning any law must pass both chambers separately.

The Ruling Coalition

Meloni’s government has characterized the recent Milan riots as criminal violence rather than legitimate political protest. She said the right to demonstrate does not extend to wrecking property, and that whoever breaks things must pay.

Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini publicly announced the dispatch of soldiers to Milan, while Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi briefed Meloni on contacts with prefects in areas affected by road blockades. The cabinet approved an emergency security package that includes 500 additional army personnel for Milan through December 31, 2026.

The decree creates a new offence of taking part violently in a demonstration, punishable by two to five years in prison. Fines run up to €20,000 (about US$22,400, at US$1.12 per euro, the Bank of Italy rate of October 23), and Parliament has 60 days to convert the decree.

The government’s stated priorities are restoring public order, preventing renewed attacks on shops and police, keeping roads open, and ensuring food and medicine deliveries. A separate economic decree aims to support road haulage, farming and fishing.

The Opposition

The opposition has demanded that Meloni report directly to Parliament on the economic and social crisis and the government’s response to high fuel prices. Calls have come from Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement, Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party, Angelo Bonelli of the Greens and Left Alliance, and Maria Elena Boschi of Italia Viva.

The opposition has not rejected condemnation of violence, but it has challenged the breadth of the security measures. Critics warn that broad offences could be used against legitimate protest.

Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala, a centre-left politician, urged shopkeepers on October 23 to keep their businesses open this weekend. He said he would shop in the city centre himself.

Former minister Dario Franceschini has called for a centre-left primary between Conte and Schlein, to be held no later than early February. A Youtrend poll average of October 22 puts the centre-left alliance at 44.3% and the centre-right at 42.9%, taken before the Milan riots.

What Comes Next

Meloni has said the legislature ends in about a year, though some Italian media report that she has weighed an early vote. On October 8 she called the debates about the date of the vote “rather surreal”.

The immediate test is whether Parliament converts the October security decree in full, amends it, or rejects parts of it within the 60-day deadline. The longer-term contest is whether a unified centre-left alliance can form before the expected 2027 election.

In a separate regional development, Umbria approved legislation on medically assisted suicide on October 22, becoming the fifth Italian region to do so. The Democratic Party’s internal debate is also active, with a faction associated with Franceschini, Andrea Orlando, and Roberto Speranza meeting in Montepulciano from October 23-25.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, where US$96,205 has been traded, Giorgia Meloni stands at 51.5% to be Italy’s next prime minister, ahead of Giuseppe Conte at 18.0% and Elly Schlein at 16.5%. Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, gives Meloni 36% to be prime minister after the next general election.

These prices are bets, not polls. They were read on 24 October at 5:30 a.m. ET, and the two platforms word the question differently.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

For American readers, Italy’s stability matters for NATO cohesion and European Union policy on trade, energy, and security. Meloni’s government has positioned itself as an active player in European debates on competitiveness and energy costs, which affect transatlantic supply chains.

The recent fuel protests and road blockades highlight Italy’s vulnerability to global energy price shocks, a concern shared by US policymakers. Rising fuel prices are at the centre of the opposition’s demands that Meloni report to Parliament.

The US Consulate General in Milan issued demonstration alerts on October 18 and October 23, and Americans in the city should follow its guidance. The deployment of 500 additional army personnel through December 31 signals an unusual security posture in a major European city.

What Is Not Known

It is not yet clear whether Parliament will convert the October security decree in full, amend it, or reject parts of it within the 60-day deadline. The final number of injured police officers, civilians, detainees and damaged businesses is still being verified.

Responsibility for the Milan violence, including the organisation and motives of participants, remains contested in political debate. How quickly the aid for hauliers and farmers will reach recipients is not yet clear.

It remains uncertain whether the centre-left will hold a primary, who would participate, and whether Conte and Schlein would accept a two-person contest. Polling does not establish who would win a general election, as some available data predates the current unrest.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Italy’s head of state?

Sergio Mattarella is the President of Italy, serving as head of state since 2015. He represents national unity and guarantees that Italian politics comply with the Constitution, but holds considerably less power than the prime minister.

When is Italy’s next national election?

The next general election is due when the legislature ends, which Meloni puts at about a year from now. Meloni says the legislature will run its course, although some Italian media report that she has weighed an early vote.

What caused the recent unrest in Milan?

Riots took place on October 17-18, 2026, amid road blockades, fuel and cost-of-living pressures. Meloni said nearly 200 police officers were injured and about 330 people were arrested or detained, and the government responding by deploying 500 additional army personnel to Milan.

Sources: ANSA – Milan mayor appeals to shopkeepers; Governo.it – Meloni address to Senate.