Prediction Markets: Israel
Key Facts
- Prediction markets. Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu’s party, 80% on crypto-based Polymarket to win most seats, up about 12 points in a day. 4:25 p.m. ET, 27 Oct 2026.
- Trigger. Exit polls after the vote closed put Likud at 24 to 25 seats and Yashar, a new party led by ex-army chief Gadi Eizenkot, at 21 to 22.
- Gap. In the exit polls neither bloc reaches the 61 seats needed to govern. Most seats is not the same as prime minister.
- Volume. Polymarket traded about US$7.3 million on this market in 24 hours, from US$10.8 million overall.
- Next. Official results follow in the coming days; coalition talks come after.
Traders have bet heavily that Netanyahu’s Likud party will finish first in Israel’s election, even though exit polls show the country almost evenly split.
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, the chance that Likud wins the most seats rose to about 80% on Tuesday afternoon. A day earlier it stood near 68%, and a week ago about 72%.
The move came after Israel’s polls closed and television exit polls arrived. For US readers it matters because Israel is a leading recipient of US military aid, and who governs it shapes US policy on Gaza, Iran and the wider Middle East.
What the Exit Polls Showed
Exit polls are surveys of voters as they leave polling stations. They are early guides, not results.
The exit polls differed slightly by broadcaster. They put Likud at 24 to 25 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and Gadi Eizenkot’s new Yashar party, led by a former army chief, at 21 to 22. The bloc of parties allied with Netanyahu was projected at 50 seats, against 52 to 54 for the bloc around Eizenkot, with Arab parties at 17 to 18.
A government needs 61 seats, so neither side reached the line. Turnout reached 74.3% by 8 p.m. local time, against 66% at the same hour in 2022.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prices are in US cents per US$1 contract, so 80 means an 80% implied probability. Readings were taken at 4:25 p.m. ET on 27 October 2026.
- Most seats (Polymarket): Likud 80%, Yashar 20%, all other parties under 0.1% each.
- Likud seat range (Polymarket): 25 to 29 seats 54%, 20 to 24 seats 34%, 30 to 34 seats 7%, fewer than 20 seats 2%.
- Prime minister (Polymarket): Eizenkot 57%, Netanyahu 27%, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, 7%.
- Trading: about US$7.3 million on the most-seats market in 24 hours and about US$1.4 million on the seat-range market, from US$10.8 million and US$2.8 million overall. Kalshi, regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), lists a separate prime-minister market covered in Israel Election Odds Split on Vote Day.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Live Market IntelligenceCrypto — Live Market Board
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Crypto — Live Market Board
+0.67%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 80,543 | +0.67% | -29.41% | 80,007 | 80,550 | 79,380 | 21,816,416,256 |
| ETH | 2,348 | +1.18% | -43.00% | 2,320 | 2,349 | 2,295 | 8,316,267,520 |
| SOL | 100.98 | +0.22% | -49.19% | 100.75 | 101.04 | 99.17 | 2,110,777,984 |
| XRP | 1.32 | +1.04% | -49.89% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1,574,615,552 |
| BNB | 750.98 | +1.29% | -34.10% | 741.42 | 751.10 | 733.56 | 1,470,316,160 |
| ADA | 0.21 | -0.30% | -69.21% | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 190,120,672 |
| DOGE | 0.08 | +0.78% | -60.98% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 441,746,112 |
| AVAX | 8.84 | -1.36% | -56.54% | 8.96 | 8.96 | 8.67 | 289,961,824 |
| LINK | 11.47 | +0.80% | -37.04% | 11.38 | 11.47 | 11.23 | 248,509,440 |
| DOT | 0.99 | -2.05% | -68.52% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 109,918,912 |
| LTC | 56.59 | -0.13% | -43.06% | 56.66 | 56.87 | 55.70 | 169,852,160 |
| BCH | 290.36 | +3.57% | -47.81% | 280.36 | 292.52 | 277.47 | 195,939,216 |
| TRX | 0.33 | -0.51% | +9.69% | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 371,519,040 |
| XLM | 0.17 | +0.21% | -47.60% | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 107,134,680 |
| HBAR | 0.08 | -1.56% | -58.82% | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 55,674,584 |
| NEAR | 4.62 | +2.60% | +97.50% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 4.39 | 630,712,192 |
| ATOM | 1.61 | -1.48% | -49.28% | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 30,012,314 |
| AAVE | 132.37 | -2.36% | -43.78% | 135.57 | 135.87 | 129.56 | 246,790,448 |
Why the Odds Moved
The timing fits the exit polls, which showed Likud ahead of Yashar by a few seats. No trader has said this was the reason, and the platform does not publish one.
The seat-range market tells a slightly different story. It leans to 25 to 29 seats for Likud, above most of the exit-poll figures, so bettors expect the count to help Netanyahu’s party.
In the prime-minister market, Eizenkot is still the favourite. Traders are saying Likud may finish first, yet Netanyahu may still struggle to build a majority.
What It Means for US Readers
Do not read 80% as a forecast of Netanyahu staying in office. The bet is on the biggest single party, and Israeli coalitions are built from many small ones.
If Likud finishes first but its allies fall short, the president may still ask another leader to try. A long negotiation would keep US policy on Gaza, Iran and Lebanon uncertain for weeks.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Some governments outside the Middle East have drawn closer to Israel in recent years. Morocco, in North Africa, restored ties in 2020 under the US-brokered Abraham Accords.
A new Israeli coalition would show whether such ties keep their pace. Nothing in the markets or exit polls says how any government in Latin America or Africa would react.
What Is Not Known
Final seat counts are not known, and exit polls have missed by several seats before. Which parties would join a coalition is also open.
The prediction markets are thinly spread across many outcomes, and prices can swing quickly while counting continues. Read more in our prediction markets hub and in Israel Iran Ceasefire Odds Fall to 45%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do the markets expect after the exit polls?
Polymarket gives Likud about 80% to win the most seats at 4:25 p.m. ET on 27 October, and Eizenkot’s Yashar about 20%. That is a bet on seats, not on who becomes prime minister.
Are exit polls the final result?
No. Exit polls are interviews with voters leaving polling stations, and they can miss by several seats. Official results follow in the coming days; coalition talks come after.
Why is Likud favoured if the bloc totals favour Eizenkot?
The market asks which single party wins the most seats, not which bloc is bigger. Exit polls put Likud at 24 to 25 seats and Yashar at 21 to 22.
Who becomes prime minister?
Not necessarily the party with the most seats. Someone must build a coalition of at least 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
Are prediction markets the same as polls?
No. They are real-money bets, not surveys of voters. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC, the federal derivatives regulator.
Sources
Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 27 October 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET) · Israel Central Elections Committee (cec.gov.il) · Knesset (knesset.gov.il) · Israeli broadcasters’ election-night exit polls
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief