Iron Ore Holds Strong on Chinese Demand and Technical Signaling

Data from official market platforms and trading charts shows that the SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China index held near $98.40 to $99 per tonne as of July 18, 2025, morning.

This price reflects stability through the past 24 hours, with persistent buying by Chinese mills driving the market, according to data visible on SGX and Dalian Commodity Exchange.

Volumes remain healthy, as open interest on the main SGX contract stays elevated. Trading activity during the latest session confirmed that steel producers maintain robust physical appetite.

According to port data, Chinese iron ore inventories have declined, signaling ongoing restocking and strong draw from the steel sector. Chinese steel mill margins have improved since May.

That margin growth keeps procurement incentives positive even as iron ore approaches the psychological $100/tonne ceiling. Key Australian suppliers meet most contractual supply obligations, which helps keep overall supply stable.

However, the market closely watches for any tightening caused by transport or weather disruptions. Price action during the prior night and session moved within clearly defined technical bands.

The daily chart presents a steady uptrend. The 50-day simple moving average is trending upward and approaching the 200-day moving average.

This suggests that a “golden cross” formation could develop if bullish momentum continues. This pattern, when it occurs, historically signals further gains for traders who rely on technical confirmation.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show iron ore trading near the upper band, implying solid buying momentum but also caution, as this level suggests a market not far from entering technically overbought territory.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), running at 63-64, does not yet confirm a classic overbought signal, so there remains room for further price advances should fundamentals remain favorable.

MACD signals positive, showing the main line above the signal line, while the histogram remains in bullish territory but shows minor narrowing. That technical setup typically signals continued positive momentum but hints that sharp upside movement may pause.

On the four-hour chart, iron ore retraced slightly after a push to weekly highs, settling back to support lines just under $98. Volume analysis confirms that the most recent breakout attempts had sufficient backing from futures participants, but buyers eased off as prices hit resistance.

Globally, silver markets experienced continued investment flows, but iron ore did not track those metal moves directly. The iron ore price formation in the last day drew mainly from China’s real-time steel demand and disciplined shipping by Australian exporters.

Market participants remain focused on upcoming Chinese macroeconomic data and any new policy signals targeting infrastructure or real estate sectors.

They watch high-frequency shipment and inventory data closely for further physical tightness or signs of demand moderation. For now, iron ore remains anchored just below its year high, as fundamentals and technicals both support a stable, buyer-driven market.

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