Copper Holds Steady as Traders Parse Tariffs, Technicals, and Tight Supply

Copper trading on July 18, 2025, showcased the metal’s resilience amid turbulent policy signals and continuous evidence of supply constraints.

Official prices hovered near record levels, with the latest London and New York settlements putting copper around $9,678 per metric ton and $5.49 per pound, respectively—marking slight upticks of roughly 0.4% since the previous session.

Shanghai’s spot market also posted firm gains, reaching CNY 78,375 per metric ton as regional premiums narrowed and demand indicators recovered. Supply-side concerns demonstrated their enduring power.

BHP confirmed record annual copper output, slightly tempering fears of a short-term squeeze, but the producer hinted at weaker guidance for the coming year.

At the same time, LME warehouse stocks held tight near 122,150 tons, significantly below the first quarter’s averages. Trading activity overnight stayed brisk in both London and Shanghai.

However, volumes remained well within seasonal norms, signaling neither panic nor complacency among major participants. Demand dynamics carried additional weight.

U.S. retail sales data issued during the previous day pointed to a 0.6% month-on-month rebound, reversing a contraction in May.

Analysts interpreted the figure as real evidence of ongoing healthy industrial demand for copper, especially in North America’s manufacturing and infrastructure sectors.

Stronger local consumption kept U.S. futures at a significant premium to most international benchmarks, especially after this week’s announcement of a 50% tariff on foreign copper imports into the United States.

The policy, now the central narrative for global physical and futures markets, prompted a surge in speculative activity as traders and corporations scrambled to secure supplies before the tariffs take effect.

On the technical side, charts provided a window into the market’s indecisive mood. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed high near 67, signaling persistent bullish momentum but also warning of potential overbought risks.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintained a bullish crossover with a positive histogram, although momentum appeared to be leveling off.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart tightened, reflecting declining volatility and suggesting the market entered a consolidation phase. Key support emerged near $5.43 per pound, while resistance at $5.79 remained formidable.

Volume analysis on both daily and four-hour charts illustrated that the recent rally carried conviction, yet momentum moderated as prices compressed.

ETF flows mirrored the cautious optimism of the broader market. The largest copper-mining ETF registered over $23 million in inflows for the quarter, its best result since 2024 and verification of persistent institutional interest.

Market participants focused on securing supply, interpreting every official announcement, and watching technical levels for clues on the next move.

As of this morning, copper prices remain supported by strong physical demand, restrictive inventories, and market positioning grounded in tangible fundamentals, not speculative exuberance.

The trade continues to hinge on the interplay between real economic needs and regulatory action, with little room for uncertainty as each side of the market waits for the next policy step.

LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.