Iron Ore Holds Gains as Chinese Demand and Supply Worries Shape July 16 Trade

Official market data from exchanges and chart sources place the benchmark SGX TSI Iron Ore 62% Fe CFR China Index at $97.80 per tonne in the morning of July 16, 2025.

This figure reflects a marginal drop of around 0.2% from recent highs but maintains the price close to the upper end of the July trading band. Trading volumes have held steady, with no significant spikes in major futures contracts.

Market participants tracked the Dalian and Singapore Exchange numbers, both of which signaled demand resilience amid stable Chinese buying.

The supply landscape remains tight, with persistent weather disruptions reported from Australian mines and ongoing bottlenecks in Brazilian shipping.

China, as the world’s largest iron ore customer, continues to exert influence through robust daily steel production. Trade volumes remain high, and inventories at major Chinese ports sit well below their five-year average.

Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, notably from weaker real estate activity, Chinese state infrastructure spending and stimulus policies stabilize the industrial landscape.

Over the last twenty-four hours, the steel sector has avoided deep cuts, and mills continue to pursue raw material procurement to secure operations through Q3.

The technical analysis of major daily and 4-hour charts provides further context. The daily chart shows the price near the Bollinger Bands’ upper range, suggesting elevated volatility.

The 4-hour chart confirms this and reveals a brief overextension during yesterday’s session, followed by a well-supported pullback. Key moving averages illustrate a narrowing gap between short- and long-term trends.

The 50-day simple moving average has begun to trend upward, approaching the 200-day moving average. This pattern often signals a shift to a stronger market, yet prices remain just below the psychological $100 resistance, a barrier that market players watch closely.

The relative strength index (RSI) readings around 58 on both timeframes indicate the absence of overbought conditions, but show solid momentum.

MACD indicators on both charts hover above the zero line, but histogram bars have flattened out, which suggests slowing upward momentum. Volume remains unremarkable compared with short-term advances seen in late June.

No extreme flows into commodity ETFs linked directly to iron ore have appeared in the official data, yet overall metals sector funds recorded slight inflows last week following government policy announcements.

Recent session data demonstrate that iron ore continues to trade within a well-defined range. Traders highlight persistent Chinese demand, unchanged steel production runs, and slow-moving supply chains as core factors.

No official comments from major industry participants suggest radical shifts in sentiment. Given supply-side restrictions and the absence of aggressive selling, iron ore markets appear poised to navigate July’s remaining sessions with cautious optimism.

The price trajectory depends on Chinese industrial output and whether supply disruptions persist into late summer. Steady levels above $95 per tonne signal underlying support, but the market remains alert to potential headline risks.

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