Iron Ore Digs in as China’s Demand, Tight Supply, and Technical Barriers Shape July’s Trade

Official data and chart signals tell a direct story on July 15, 2025, for the Iron Ore 62% Fe, CFR China index. Iron ore prices fluctuated modestly in the last 24 hours.

SGX futures closed near $97.45 per tonne, while the spot market held largely between $96.76 and $98.60. Traders saw prices retreat after flirting with $98, as Chinese buyers showed caution after a mid-July rally brought iron ore close to the psychological $100 mark.

China’s property sector released weaker-than-expected June numbers, which contributed to softer steel demand signals. New home prices fell at the fastest monthly pace since October of the prior year, dragging down iron ore’s bullish streak.

Meanwhile, steel mills continued to operate, with June output reaching 94.5 million tonnes, propping up iron ore input needs, but port inventory levels in China stayed low at 125.6 million tonnes.

Maintenance downtime at major Australian ports and quick recoveries in Brazilian cargo supply helped maintain the tightness in global ore supply. The chart analysis gives more clarity.

The daily candlestick chart shows iron ore futures holding above key short-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average tracks upward towards $97, while the 200-day sits at $101, creating a technical lid but also underscoring longer-term market health.

The four-hour chart reflects a pullback from $98.60, with prices staying within Bollinger Bands and respecting support around $96.75. Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings sit at 59 on the daily interval, indicating the market is neither overbought nor oversold.

The RSI around 54 to 65 on the four-hour chart matches a period of consolidation and reduced buying momentum. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on both timeframes confirms that bullish energy has slowed, but bears remain hesitant.

Recent volume data show a reduction in buying pressure, particularly as prices approached strong resistance levels. These movements have mirrored real constraints and policies, not speculation.

The Chinese government continued to inject stimulus into the infrastructure sector, but stubborn property downturns restricted further price advances.

Weather factors, including heavy rains in southern China and high heat in the north, have slowed construction activity and raw material movements.

On the supply side, limited port stocks prevented deeper price falls, even as some cargoes faced weather- and maintenance-related shipment delays.

Metals ETF flows displayed stability, with no significant outflows to suggest a reversal in sentiment among institutional investors. Market participants focused on short-term physical demand and the trajectory of steel margins.

They also watched for the government’s next steps on property sector relief. Iron ore’s trading day tells a story of cautious optimism slowly fading toward short-term uncertainty.

Market players now wait for signals from China’s second-quarter economic reports to decide whether the $100-per-tonne barrier represents a ceiling or just another waypoint.

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