Brazil’s GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2023, according to the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea).
This estimate is an upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.4% made in March.
Additionally, Ipea has reduced the inflation estimate for the year from 5.6% to 5.1%. The report also highlights increased demand for Brazilian commodities driven by China’s economic reopening.
The first-quarter forecast predicted a 1.2% growth compared to the last three months of 2022, and a 2.7% growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
However, the actual growth exceeded these forecasts, reaching 1.9% and 4%, respectively.
The lower-than-expected inflation is attributed to the appreciation of the Brazilian Real and the deflation of commodity prices.
Looking ahead, the economic outlook for the remainder of 2023 is stable.
The Ipea report emphasizes certain contributing factors to the projected scenario.
Notably, the increase in demand for Brazilian commodities, particularly driven by China’s economic recovery, is highlighted.
Brazil has seen record monthly trade surpluses in 2023, led by increased exports of commodities such as oil, iron ore, corn, and soybeans.
Within the country, Ipea identifies two opposing forces at play:
The Central Bank maintains high-interest rates, averaging 45% annually in the credit market, which exerts downward pressure on growth.
Fiscal measures support family income and increased public demand through government consumption and public investment.
Ipea also anticipates that new measures will continue supporting family income in the year’s second quarter.
This includes an increase in the minimum wage, salary adjustments for federal civil servants, early payment of salary bonuses, and adjustments to the value of the Bolsa Família program.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
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Brazil — Live Market Board
+2.63%
192,114.55
+2.63%
64,531.68
+1.10%
10,916.57
+0.08%
2,767,663
+0.32%
2,515.02
-0.59%
59,751.67
+0.18%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 192,114.55 | +2.63% | +21.85% | 187,197.46 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief