Key Facts
- Gold at a 12-month low The gold-tracking fund closed at US$354.89, its lowest close of the past 12 months, after three straight daily falls.
- Silver far below its peak The silver-tracking fund is 57.3% below its 28 January high of 105.60, after falling 3.28% to US$45.12 in the session.
- Yields are the main culprit The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.10%, making metals that pay no interest less attractive.
- The safe-haven bid failed The VIX fear gauge jumped 6.92% to 18.70 and oil rose 3.25%, yet gold still fell, so interest rates outweighed worry.
- History leans towards a bounce After 30 earlier gold-fund falls of this size, 18 were higher 20 sessions later; for silver it was 17 of 24 cases.
- Mexico and Peru are exposed Mexico mined about 172.9 million ounces of silver in 2025, roughly a fifth of world supply.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, prices an 87.5% chance of a 0.25-point Federal Reserve rate rise in December (US$29.4 million traded, 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November).
Today’s Focus
Gold and silver were sold hard on Thursday, 12 November 2026, as investors bet the US Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates again. The gold-tracking fund fell 2.82%, its lowest close of the past 12 months.
The reason is simple. Gold pays no interest, so when safe government bonds yield more, holding it costs more.
Silver, which also serves factories, has suffered even more. The silver fund is down 24.8% over 60 sessions, and 13.10% in the last 20.
What matters today. For Latin American miners and exporters, the question is whether the Fed’s next move ends the slide or deepens it.
01 The session in one read
Investors dumped precious metals on Thursday, 12 November 2026, because bond yields rose and rate-hike fears spread. Gold is the old refuge from trouble, but this week it behaves like an asset that suffers when money becomes more expensive.
The slide began after a hotter US inflation report on Tuesday, 10 November, when the gold fund fell 2.7% and the silver fund 3.4%. Thursday extended it.
The best-supported reading is that a hotter US inflation reading has pushed investors to price in higher rates for longer, and that outweighs any safe-haven demand. We are fairly sure of the direction, less sure of how much is forced selling by funds caught on the wrong side. The variable to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield: while it stays above 5%, metals stay under pressure.
02 The board
The gold fund’s three straight losses took it to its lowest close of the past 12 months. It is 5.49% lower over five sessions, which shows how quickly the pain has arrived.
Silver slipped to within 1.2% of its 12-month low of 44.60, set on 30 October. A metal that peaked near 105.60 in January is now being priced like a different asset.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold fund (GLD) | US$354.89 | -2.82% |
| Silver fund (SLV) | US$45.12 | -3.28% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-12. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,324.31 | -0.43% | +8.69% | 172,060.43 | 172,060 | 169,942 | — |
| IPSA | 10,625.27 | +0.69% | — | 10,552.02 | 10,646 | 10,506 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,674.32 | -0.46% | +13.64% | 72,006.05 | 72,212 | 71,603 | 163,492,928 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,452.93 | -1.35% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.64 | +1.06% | +6.62% | 5.58 | 5.65 | 5.64 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.24 | +0.11% | +1.79% | 6.23 | 6.25 | 6.23 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.58 | -0.09% | +1.63% | 18.60 | 18.60 | 18.58 | — |
| USD/CLP | 994.00 | +1.14% | +6.94% | 982.80 | 996.27 | 982.53 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,302 | -0.16% | -10.88% | 3,307 | 3,303 | 3,302 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | -0.06% | +0.92% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.41 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | +0.03% | +9.69% | 1,545 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.52 | +3.32% | +3.23% | 39.22 | 40.52 | 40.52 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,185 | +3.33% | -10.93% | 5,986 | 6,185 | 6,185 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.60 | +0.86% | +72.17% | 11.50 | 11.60 | 11.60 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.47 | +0.03% | -5.59% | 60.45 | 60.59 | 60.45 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.25 | +1.62% | -9.18% | 438.17 | 445.25 | 445.25 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.65 | +3.31% | +2.09% | 7.40 | 7.65 | 7.65 | — |
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest: US interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.10%, so investors can earn a high, safe return instead of holding bars of metal. Confidence: high.
Second, the dollar. The dollar index rose 0.25% to 103.17, and is 1.60% higher over five sessions, which makes metals priced in dollars dearer for buyers using other currencies. Confidence: medium-high.
Third, inflation worries linked to fading hopes of Middle East peace, which helped lift oil by 3.25%. Normally that would help gold, but it also raises the chance that the Fed keeps rates high. Confidence: medium.
The signals conflict. The S&P 500 slipped 0.35% to 7,592 and the VIX rose, which usually helps gold, yet gold fell. Our reading is that forced selling by funds after the January run added to the damage, though we have lower confidence in that.
04 The trend behind it
This is a continuation, not a new phase. The gold fund is 28.4% below its 29 January peak of 495.90, and has lost 14.2% over 60 sessions and 7.27% over 20.
Silver has fallen further and faster. Its January peak came a day earlier, and it has since lost more than half its value.
Our own price history since 2007 offers a counterweight. After 30 earlier gold-fund falls of 7.3% or more in 20 sessions, the fund was higher 20 sessions later in 18 cases, with a median gain of 1.6% and a worst loss of 8.3%. For silver, after 24 comparable falls, 17 were higher, the median was 4.3% and the worst was 20.7% lower. History is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
Mexico is the world’s top silver producer, with about 172.9 million ounces mined in 2025, roughly a fifth of global supply. Output fell 5% that year, the third annual decline, so lower prices hit already shrinking producers and the tax and royalty income they generate.
Peru, a major miner, raised silver output 7% in 2025, according to the World Silver Survey 2026 (published by the Silver Institute, the industry body), and much of its silver comes as a by-product of lead and zinc mining.
For travellers and savers, a stronger dollar tends to weigh on regional currencies, making imports dearer at home. Local savers who hold metals as protection are feeling the loss now.
06 The names to watch
The two funds are the cleanest gauge: the gold fund at its 12-month low and the silver fund just above its low of 44.60. A close beneath either would confirm the slide is going on.
07 What would end it
Gold’s 12-month low is today’s close, so there is no recent floor beneath it. For silver, the nearest support is 44.60, with the round US$50 mark for the fund as first resistance, and the January peaks far above.
The catalyst is the next US inflation report and the Fed’s December meeting. A cooler reading would pull the 10-year yield back from 5.10% and relieve metals; another hot one would extend the slide.
Honestly, it stops when yields stop rising. Until then, rallies are likely to be sold.
08 What to watch
- US 10-year yield: A fall back from 5.10% would ease the pressure on both metals.
- US inflation data: The next monthly report decides whether the Fed hikes.
- Silver floor: A close below 44.60 on the silver fund would open a new low.
- Central-bank buying: Heraeus expects purchases to beat 2025, the key support for gold.
- Calendar: US initial jobless claims (new applications for unemployment benefits; forecast 195,000, previous 189,000), continuing claims (forecast 1.71 million, previous 1.718 million), the four-week average of claims (forecast 192.5, previous 194.75) and the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) crude stock change and the change in stocks at Cushing, the Oklahoma oil-storage hub (previous +0.28 million) were due on 12 November; actual figures were not in the RT economic calendar when we closed, except the EIA commercial crude stocks, up 4.7 million barrels.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision, with US$29.4 million traded as of 7:41 p.m. ET, 12 November 2026. It prices a 0.25-point rise at 87.5%, a 0.5-point or larger rise at 10.1%, no change at 1.7% and a cut at 0.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders expect higher US rates, the main reason gold, which pays no interest, is under pressure.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did gold fall on Thursday, 12 November 2026?
Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar made gold, which pays no interest, less attractive.
Is gold at a record low?
No. The gold fund is at its lowest close in 12 months, but remains far below its January peak.
Why does silver matter to Latin America?
Mexico mines about a fifth of the world’s silver, and Peru is also a major producer.
Does a big fall mean a rebound is coming?
Not necessarily. In our own history, 18 of 30 comparable gold falls were followed by gains 20 sessions later, but history is not a forecast.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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