US Stocks Jump 2.3% as Fear Gauge Falls 22% | Global Economy, Nov 10
Rio Times Global Economy Briefing
Key Facts
- Prediction markets: Polymarket, a prediction-market platform, prices a quarter-point (25-basis-point) Fed rate increase on 8–9 December at 79.5% (11:10 pm ET, 9 November).
- US stocks jumped on Monday: the S&P 500 rose 2.35% to 7,550 and the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, fell 22.31%.
- Borrowing costs stayed high: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.895%, so the rally is not powered by cheaper money.
- Brazil’s central bank held its Selic rate, the country’s benchmark interest rate, at 13.75% on 4 November; its minutes are due today.
- US consumer prices arrive at 8:30 am ET today, with the core rate forecast at 2.8% against 2.6% before.
The Big Three
- Wall Street surges as fear drains away The S&P 500 closed at 7,550, up 2.35%, and the VIX fell 22.31% to 19.92. Investors are buying again after last week’s sell-off.
- Yields climb even as stocks rally The US 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.895%, up 0.58%, so this rally is not powered by cheaper money. The dollar index slipped 0.59% to 101.692.
- Brazil holds the Selic at 13.75% Copom, the central bank’s rate-setting committee, paused after five straight cuts while inflation sits at 4.58%, above the 4.5% ceiling. A softer dollar helps, but the central bank is in no hurry.
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core inflation rate (due today, consensus 2.8%) | Pending | 2.6% | A hotter print would lift yields |
| Cleveland Fed inflation measure (due today) | Pending | 0.2 | Watch for firm services prices |
| US Energy Information Administration (EIA) commercial crude stocks (million barrels) | 409.8 | 410.7 | Small draw |
| EIA distillate stocks (million barrels) | 99.3 | 102.9 | Diesel supply tightens |
| EIA gasoline stocks (million barrels) | 209.0 | 209.2 | Marginal draw |
Europe & United Kingdom
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesbank (German central bank) president Nagel speech (Wednesday 08:20 Lisbon) | Pending | n/a | Tone on European Central Bank policy |
| German 30-year Bund auction, yield (Wednesday 10:30 Lisbon) | Pending | 3.67% | Test of demand for long German debt |
Asia-Pacific & Emerging Markets
| Indicator | Actual | Prior | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| China consumer prices, year on year (Oct) | 0.7% | 0.9% | Softer than the 0.8% forecast |
| China producer prices, year on year (Oct) | 5.7% | 5.0% | Beat the 5.3% forecast |
| Japan coincident index (Sep) | 119.5 | 118.8 | Beat the 118 forecast |
| Japan leading index (Sep) | 116.4 | 118 | Missed the 116.7 forecast |
| South Africa foreign exchange reserves (Oct) | 74.51 | 75.43 | Below the 75.2 forecast |
| Brazil Selic rate | 13.75% | 14.00% | Held after five cuts |
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,550 | +2.35% |
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 172,236 | +2.22% |
| USD/BRL | 5.5083 | +0.03% |
Source: market close, 9 November 2026.
Today’s Economic Calendar — Tuesday, November 10, 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Consensus | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01 | GB | BRC (British Retail Consortium) Retail Sales Monitor | 1.2 | 1 |
| 03:00 | CN | Exports | — | 36.3 |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | 126.5 | 133.53 |
| 03:00 | CN | Imports | — | 31 |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade Yuan | 859 | 905.97 |
| 03:35 | JP | 30-Year Japanese Government Bond Auction | — | 4.109 |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 47.8 | 47.4 |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 46.8 | 47 |
| 09:00 | US | Fed Waller Speech | — | — |
| 11:00 | BR | Brazil central bank (Copom) meeting minutes | — | — |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB (US small-business group) Business Optimism Index | 97.7 | 97.9 |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 337.02 | 336.94 |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337 | 336.3 |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate | — | 338.9 |
| 13:30 | US | Real Earnings | — | -0.5 |
Live Market IntelligenceGlobal Markets — Live Board
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Global Markets — Live Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,550 | +2.35% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 27,908 | +3.40% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 52,390 | +2.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 2,841 | +3.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.8640 | +0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 19.92 | -22.31% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,267 | +1.73% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,783 | +1.02% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,233 | +1.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 656.52 | +1.26% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 60,025 | +2.13% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 24,495 | +0.19% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 5,184 | +3.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,059 | +0.07% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 25,045 | +0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,446 | +1.84% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,121 | +0.16% | -0.02% | 4,115 | 4,156 | 4,117 | 19,727 |
| SILVER | 53.00 | +0.83% | +5.63% | 52.56 | 53.78 | 52.91 | 6,713 |
01 Fear drains out of Wall Street
US stocks surged, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,550, up 2.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.15% to 52,390, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.74% to 25,253.
The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, collapsed 22.31% to 19.92. Last week’s sell-off gave way to a broad rebound, with the Nasdaq Composite, which is heavy with technology shares, leading the gains.
Official data from the US Energy Information Administration (eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly) put commercial crude stocks at 409.8 million barrels in the week to 30 October, down 0.9 million. Distillate stocks fell 3.6 million to 99.3 million barrels, a tighter diesel picture.
The evidence points to relief rather than a new trend. Stocks recovered part of last week’s sell-off and the VIX fell by more than a fifth, yet the 10-year yield rose to 4.895% and Polymarket still prices a December rate increase.
Confidence is medium because today’s US inflation report can swing those odds within minutes. The variable to watch is the core reading against the 2.8% forecast.
02 Yields refuse to follow stocks lower
The US 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.895%, up 0.58% on the day. Stocks are rising while borrowing costs stay high, which is an uneasy pairing.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks today. Investors will listen for any sign that inflation is cooling fast enough to allow lower rates.
The core inflation rate is on today’s calendar, with a consensus of 2.8% against 2.6% before. A hotter reading would push yields higher and test the equity bounce.
Gold gained 1.78% to US$4,138/oz while the dollar index fell 0.59% to 101.692. Gold rising alongside yields suggests investors still want protection, even as stocks recover.
03 Brazil pauses while the world reprices
China’s consumer prices rose 0.7% in October from a year earlier, below the 0.8% forecast. Producer prices rose 5.7%, ahead of the 5.3% consensus, so cost pressure is building at the factory gate while shoppers stay cautious.
Brazil’s central bank held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November, ending five straight quarter-point cuts from 15%. The vote was unanimous.
Consumer inflation reached 4.58% in the 12 months to September, according to the statistics office IBGE, above the 4.5% tolerance ceiling.
A softer dollar and a calmer VIX are welcome news for the real and Brazilian stocks. Calendar figures in this briefing come from the RT economic calendar (RT market data). But with the US 10-year yield at 4.895%, foreign investors still demand a high return for emerging-market risk.
Copom minutes are due today, and the next decision comes on 9 December. Mexican industrial production and Brazilian services data follow on Wednesday, giving a wider view of Latin American demand.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the December Fed decision, with about US$17.7 million traded, prices a 25-basis-point increase at 79.5%, no change at 18.5% and a 25-basis-point cut at 0.8%. Prices are bets, not polls, and moved after the last jobs data; stand 11:10 pm ET on 9 November 2026.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to watch today and this week
- Wednesday: Brazilian services growth, Mexican industrial production and Chile’s central bank minutes.
- Thursday: Brazil’s October consumer inflation report, forecast at 0.26% for the month against 0.82% before.
- Friday: Whether the US rally holds into the weekend with the VIX near 19.92 and the 10-year yield at 4.895%.
- Ongoing: Brazil’s 9 December Copom decision, with the Selic at 13.75% and inflation above the 4.5% ceiling.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the S&P 500 rise so sharply?
The S&P 500 closed at 7,550, up 2.35%, as fear eased after last week’s sell-off. The VIX dropped 22.31% to 19.92.
Why are US yields rising while stocks rally?
The 10-year yield is 4.895%, up 0.58%. Investors are still pricing in a possible Fed rate increase in December.
What is the Selic rate in Brazil?
Copom held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November after five quarter-point cuts. The next decision is on 9 December.
How does a weaker dollar help Latin America?
The dollar index fell 0.59% to 101.692. A softer dollar eases debt costs and tends to support currencies such as the real.
What should investors watch next?
Today’s core inflation reading and the speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Brazil’s Copom minutes also land today.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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