Gerdau Rises 1.1% as Latin American Steel Mixed | Steel Wrap, Nov 10
Key Facts
- CSN is the weak link: its New York shares closed at US$0.8145, down 0.39% on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, and 34.31% lower over 20 sessions.
- Gerdau bucked the day: it rose 1.09% to US$4.63, though it sits 11.6% below its 20 October high of 5.24.
- The global steel fund is drifting: the SLX fund closed at US$99.47, down 0.16%, and 12.4% below its 2 June peak of 113.57.
- The macro push was negative: a hotter-than-expected US inflation reading lifted the dollar index by 0.55% to 102.22 and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.99%.
- Mexico is the strong story: Ternium closed at US$51.11, down 0.25%, but reported a third-quarter profit of US$368 million after a US$270 million loss a year earlier.
- Trade walls are the real driver: Brazil and Mexico have both tightened defences against cheap Chinese steel, and the winners are the mills that sell at home.
Today’s Focus
Latin American steel ended Tuesday, November 10, 2026 mostly lower, but not together. Gerdau, Brazil’s largest long-steel maker, rose 1.09% to US$4.63, while CSN, a Brazilian producer weighed down by debt, fell 0.39% to US$0.8145 and Ternium dipped 0.25% to US$51.11.
The backdrop was a hostile one for anything tied to construction and manufacturing. US inflation came in above forecasts, which pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher and made borrowing and building more expensive.
Beneath the daily wobble sits a bigger contest: who wins the home market when cheap Chinese steel is kept out. Mexico shows the upside, with record third-quarter shipments, while Brazil’s mills are still waiting for the same relief to show in their results.
What matters today. Steel stocks in Latin America now trade less on global prices and more on how well each government keeps Chinese imports out and each company manages its debt.
01 The session in one read
Steel is a cyclical business: it sells to builders and carmakers, so it rises and falls with confidence in the economy. On Tuesday, November 10, 2026, confidence took a knock from American inflation numbers.
The SLX fund, which holds steel producers around the world, slipped 0.16%. The three Latin American names split three ways, which tells you the local story matters more than the global one.
The day was driven by US rates, but the direction of travel is set by protection against Chinese imports, which favours Ternium and Gerdau over the indebted CSN. We hold this view with medium confidence because the company results for Brazil’s mills are not yet confirmed in our research; the variable to watch is whether Brazilian import share falls as Mexico’s has.
02 The board
Gerdau was the standout, closing at US$4.63 after a 1.09% gain, its second rise in a row. Even so, it is 10.62% lower than 20 sessions ago and 11.6% under its 20 October high of 5.24.
CSN is the most violent of the group. Its New York shares are 14.11% higher over five sessions, a rebound from a 12-month low of 0.71 set on 3 November, yet 34.31% lower over 20 sessions and 61.6% below the 2.12 reached on 28 January.
Ternium, the Mexico-based producer, barely moved at US$51.11.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Steel (SLX ETF) | US$99.47 | -0.16% |
| Gerdau | US$4.63 | +1.09% |
| CSN (ADR) | US$0.8145 | -0.39% |
| Ternium | US$51.11 | -0.25% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-10. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 171,336.99 | -0.52% | +10.36% | 172,236.05 | 173,272 | 170,569 | — |
| IPSA | 10,597.06 | +0.07% | — | 10,589.65 | 10,635 | 10,554 | — |
| IPC MEX | 71,564.96 | -0.42% | +13.95% | 71,866.30 | 72,057 | 71,295 | 202,220,399 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | -10.97% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,528.01 | -1.88% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.58 | +1.35% | +5.54% | 5.51 | 5.58 | 5.58 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 6.23 | +1.65% | +2.03% | 6.13 | 6.24 | 6.23 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.60 | +0.36% | +1.21% | 18.53 | 18.62 | 18.60 | — |
| USD/CLP | 983.69 | +1.70% | +4.93% | 967.23 | 985.56 | 963.98 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,297 | +5.67% | -12.13% | 3,120 | 3,297 | 3,296 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.41 | -0.06% | +2.98% | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.41 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,545 | -0.03% | +8.82% | 1,546 | 1,545 | 1,545 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.43 | +3.52% | +2.92% | 39.06 | 40.43 | 40.43 | — |
| USD/PYG | 6,196 | +1.99% | -11.16% | 6,075 | 6,196 | 6,196 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.68 | +0.19% | +72.65% | 11.66 | 11.68 | 11.68 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.44 | +2.38% | -5.56% | 59.04 | 60.46 | 60.44 | — |
| USD/CRC | 445.62 | +1.24% | -9.10% | 440.16 | 445.62 | 445.62 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +2.97% | +1.90% | 7.42 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest cause: US inflation. The reading came in above forecasts, the dollar index rose 0.55% to 102.22 and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 4.99%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, and a higher yield raises the cost of the loans that fund construction and factory orders. Gold’s fund fell 2.68% in the same reaction. Confidence: high.
Second cause: weaker risk appetite, with the S&P 500 down 0.38% and oil’s fund down 0.85%. Cheaper oil eases inflation worries but also hints at softer industrial demand. Confidence: medium.
The conflicting signal is Gerdau’s rise on a day when yields and the dollar both rose. Our best reading, with medium-low confidence, is that investors are buying it as a company that benefits from protected markets and is cheaper after a 10.62% fall in 20 sessions, rather than as a bet on global demand.
CSN’s slide fits its debt. When yields rise, heavily indebted companies are punished first, and a company that depends on trade duties to restore profits is exposed if those duties disappoint.
RT economic calendar: China’s Balance of Trade, its trade surplus, for October was US$105.28 billion (Balance of Trade in yuan: 712.78 billion), below the forecast of US$125.8 billion and the US$133.53 billion of September. A smaller surplus means China bought relatively more from abroad than it sold, which is a modest sign of firm demand for imported goods.
04 The trend behind it
Over 60 sessions the SLX fund is 8.2% lower, and it is 12.4% under its 2 June peak of 113.57. It remains 31.2% above its 12-month low of 75.82, set on 20 November 2025, so this is a pullback inside a recovery rather than a collapse.
The fund is 3.46% lower over 20 sessions yet 0.28% higher over five, which looks like a pause. This is a continuation of a softening phase, not a new one.
Our own price history since 2007 gives a sobering note on Gerdau. After 88 earlier falls of at least this size, it was higher 20 sessions later in 42 cases, or 48%, with a median change of minus 0.8%, a worst case of minus 56.6% and a best of plus 35.9%.
CSN’s record is similar: after 15 earlier falls this large, it was higher 20 sessions later in 7 cases, or 47%, with a median of minus 1.4%, a worst of minus 45.5% and a best of plus 40.7%. History is not a forecast; it says only that deep falls do not reliably bounce.
05 What it means for Latin America
Mexico matters to this story through Ternium, the Latin American steelmaker.
Ternium, the Latin American steelmaker, reported a US$368 million profit for the third quarter and guides fourth-quarter operating profit before depreciation broadly in line with the third quarter.
Brazil is further behind. It imposed five-year antidumping duties on some Chinese steel products early in 2026, so the relief may take time to reach the balance sheets of the mills.
06 The names to watch
A reader in São Paulo should treat Gerdau, Brazil’s largest long-steel maker, as the best-placed Brazilian name, though quarterly results for the Brazilian mills are not confirmed in our research.
CSN is the highest-risk, highest-reward name. The new duties may give it a short-term revenue boost, but its debt leaves little room for error.
Ternium is the steadier holding.
07 What would end it
For the SLX fund the line to watch below is the 12-month low of 75.82, and above it the 2 June high of 113.57; the round US$100 mark, just above Tuesday’s close, is the nearest test. For Gerdau, support is the 3.26 low from 20 March and resistance is 5.24.
For CSN, the 0.71 low of 3 November is the floor, and a close below it would signal that the rebound has failed. The honest answer to whether this stops is that it depends on US inflation and yields, which would need to cool, and on proof that Brazilian import share is falling.
Next catalysts are the next US inflation report, and evidence that Brazil’s duties on Chinese steel are cutting imports.
08 What to watch
- US inflation and yields: The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.99% sets the cost of money for builders and carmakers.
- Brazil’s antidumping duties: Whether the duties on Chinese steel cut imports shapes the outlook for Gerdau, CSN and Usiminas, a Brazilian flat-steel maker.
- CSN’s 0.71 low: A close below the 3 November low would show the rebound has failed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Gerdau rise when CSN fell?
Gerdau is seen as better placed to benefit from trade protection, while CSN’s debt makes it more exposed to higher yields.
What is driving Ternium’s profit?
Higher shipments and stronger prices, with Mexican market share gained from imports after stricter trade-defence measures.
Does the SLX fund track steel prices?
No, it holds steel-producer shares, so it is a proxy for the industry, not the price of steel itself.
Should investors expect a bounce in CSN?
History is not a forecast; after 15 similar falls it was higher 20 sessions later in 7 cases, or 47%.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error
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