Global coffee production expected to recover in 2022/23 with Brazil crop

Global coffee production is estimated to increase by 6.6 million bags to 172.8 million in 2022/23, with consumption just 800,000 bags more than the previous season’s 167.9 million.

The report noted that “against this situation of improving supply”, coffee prices released by the International Coffee Organization have fallen by 25% since February.

Arabica coffee production in Brazil was forecast to increase by 3.4 million bags to 39.8 million, although it was well below recent seasons in the country’s biennial crop cycle, which peaked at nearly 50 million sacks.

“Arabica coffee plantations in many producing regions continued to recover from the severe frosts in June and July 2021, as well as the high temperatures and below-average rainfall that prevailed through September 2021,” the report said.

Brazil’s Robusta harvest is forecast to continue expanding to reach a record 22.8 million, an increase of 1.1 million bags.

Vietnam, the second largest coffee producer in the world, harvested a crop of 30.2 million bags, 1.4 million less than the previous crop due to reduced productivity.

The USDA noted that fertilizer prices in Vietnam increased by up to 70% last year.

“Farmers responded by reducing fertilizer use, which is expected to reduce yields and year-over-year production,” the report said.

With this, it is estimated that global coffee stocks at the end of the 2022/23 season would increase by 1.5 million bags, to 34.1 million.

With information from Forbes

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