Prediction Markets: United States
Key Facts
- Prediction markets. Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, prices a quarter-point Fed hike in December at 90.5% and no change at 2.8% (9:35 a.m. ET, 13 November).
- Move. A hold has lost about 18 points in seven days; a quarter-point hike has gained 13.
- Context. Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, floated a half-point hike on 10 November; core inflation then rose 0.3%.
- Next. The Fed decides on Wednesday 9 December; minutes of its October meeting come on 18 November.
- Volume. About US$4.7 million traded in 24 hours on the Polymarket event, US$31.6 million in total.
Traders now price a Federal Reserve hold in December at under 3%. A rate rise can lift US borrowing costs and strengthen the dollar, which matters well beyond the United States.
Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, price a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate rise in December at 90.5%, read at 9:35 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) on Friday 13 November 2026. The chance of no change has shrunk to 2.8%, down about 18 points in seven days.
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the US central bank, and its main rate steers mortgages, car loans and savings yields. A price of 90.5% is a bet-implied probability, not a forecast by The Rio Times or the Fed.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in December?” market lists five outcomes. Prices are the implied probability that each one happens, read on 13 November at 9:35 a.m. ET:
- 25 bps increase (bps means basis points; 25 is a 0.25-point rise): 90.5%, up about 1 point in 24 hours and 13 points in seven days.
- No change: 2.8%, down less than 1 point in 24 hours and about 18 points in seven days.
- 50+ bps increase (a rise of half a point or more): about 6.3%, down about 1 point in 24 hours and up about 6 points in seven days.
- 25 bps decrease and 50+ bps decrease: both under 0.5%.
About US$4.7 million changed hands on the event in the last 24 hours and about US$31.6 million since it opened, per Polymarket data. Prices across outcomes need not add up to exactly 100%.
The market resolves on the change in the upper limit of the Fed’s target range after the December meeting; a move not shown is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. A price cannot tell us how firmly the 12 voters on the committee have made up their minds.
Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), asks the question in a different way. Its “above 4.00%” contract, which pays out if the Fed’s upper limit ends the December meeting above today’s 4.00%, last traded at 96 cents, or about 96%, with about 28,700 contracts traded in 24 hours.
Its “above 4.25%” contract needs a bigger move and last traded at 7 cents, with about 70,000 contracts traded in 24 hours. Both platforms price a quarter-point rise as the most likely outcome and a half-point rise as a small chance.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Moved
No source says which single event mattered most, but three official steps came in the past two weeks. On Wednesday 28 October the Fed held its main rate at 3.75% to 4.00%.
Two members of its rate-setting committee, Governor Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, voted for a quarter-point rise instead. On Tuesday 10 November, hours before the data, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that he would back a 25-basis-point hike in December even if inflation improved.
He added that if core inflation (prices excluding food and energy) was “around 0.3 percent or even higher”, then “a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered”.Waller said that “hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk”.
He stressed that the views were his own, not those of the committee. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US inflation agency, then reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in October and core prices 0.3%, according to Fox Business.
Economists polled by LSEG, a financial data firm, had expected 0.3% and 0.2%. The BLS could not publish a yearly inflation rate because a government shutdown last year stopped October 2025 data collection, according to Fox Business.
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Crypto — Live Market Board
-4.46%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 68,164 | -4.46% | -31.64% | 71,343 | 71,386 | 68,052 | 43,090,460,672 |
| ETH | 1,913 | -5.14% | -40.82% | 2,017 | 2,017 | 1,909 | 14,664,520,704 |
| SOL | 78.97 | -3.30% | -45.58% | 81.66 | 82.12 | 78.15 | 3,380,909,824 |
| XRP | 1.01 | -2.65% | -56.57% | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 2,436,470,272 |
| BNB | 628.59 | -4.19% | -32.27% | 656.05 | 657.28 | 626.16 | 1,394,751,616 |
| ADA | 0.17 | -2.74% | -68.12% | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 303,550,016 |
| DOGE | 0.06 | -3.13% | -60.83% | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 688,336,512 |
| AVAX | 8.29 | -0.62% | -48.69% | 8.34 | 8.61 | 8.04 | 277,045,984 |
| LINK | 9.80 | -3.30% | -32.82% | 10.13 | 10.19 | 9.67 | 312,132,448 |
| DOT | 0.82 | -1.73% | -71.38% | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 68,873,848 |
| LTC | 48.70 | -2.56% | -49.68% | 49.98 | 50.27 | 47.83 | 239,181,744 |
| BCH | 222.07 | -1.23% | -56.43% | 224.84 | 228.01 | 214.74 | 128,378,584 |
| TRX | 0.31 | -0.92% | +6.56% | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 435,702,752 |
| XLM | 0.15 | -1.13% | -45.48% | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 197,322,032 |
| HBAR | 0.06 | -1.87% | -62.19% | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 74,403,664 |
| NEAR | 3.45 | +0.82% | +40.46% | 3.42 | 3.62 | 3.27 | 697,498,688 |
| ATOM | 1.39 | -2.74% | -51.49% | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.37 | 24,899,508 |
| AAVE | 110.80 | -2.76% | -44.43% | 113.95 | 115.09 | 109.75 | 217,565,648 |
What It Means for US Readers
A December rise would be the Fed’s second this year, after the quarter-point increase in September to 3.75% to 4.00%. It can push up the cost of credit-card debt, variable-rate loans and new mortgages, and lift what savings accounts pay.
Investors in US-listed Latin American and African companies should watch the dollar. A stronger dollar can shrink the value of foreign earnings reported in US$, and a 6.3% chance of a half-point rise is the tail that would move it most.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
Higher US rates can make dollar assets more attractive and pull money out of emerging markets. Governments and firms that borrow in dollars also pay more when they refinance, a channel that matters for both regions even though the odds themselves measure only the Fed.
Brazil’s central bank has its own rate decision on the evening of 9 December, the same day as the Fed. We found no reporting yet that links the latest US move to any specific Latin American or African currency or bond.
What to Watch Next
- Wednesday 18 November, 2:00 p.m. ET: minutes of the Fed’s 27–28 October meeting, which show how many members leaned towards a rise.
- Wednesday 25 November, 8:30 a.m. ET: the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, for October.
- Wednesday 9 December: the Fed’s decision, due at the end of its 8–9 December meeting.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the committee will choose a quarter-point or a half-point rise, because Waller spoke only for himself. We also do not know what the missing yearly inflation rate would have shown.
Prediction-market prices are bets, not polls and not forecasts by The Rio Times or the Fed. They can reverse within hours.
Sources
Federal Reserve Board, speech by Governor Waller, 10 November 2026; Federal Open Market Committee statement, 28 October 2026; Fox Business, October CPI report, November 2026; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 13 November 2026, 9:35 a.m. ET).
More from The Rio Times: Prediction Markets hub, our earlier report on December hike odds, January hike odds, hike odds after the jobs report.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are traders betting on?
They are betting on what the Federal Reserve will do to its main interest rate on 9 December. On Polymarket, a quarter-point increase trades at 90.5% and no change at 2.8%.
Does a 90.5% price mean a hike is certain?
No. It is a market price, not a forecast by The Rio Times or the Fed. Prices can reverse within hours.
What did Fed Governor Waller say?
On 10 November he said he would back a 25-basis-point rise in December. He said a 50-basis-point rise should be considered if core inflation stayed around 0.3% or higher.
What could change the odds next?
The Fed’s meeting minutes on 18 November and the October PCE inflation reading on 25 November are the next scheduled tests, before the decision on 9 December.
Why does this matter in Latin America and Africa?
Higher US rates can lift the dollar and raise the cost of dollar loans, a channel that matters for emerging economies.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error