Fed Hike Odds Hit 87% Before Inflation Data

Prediction Markets: United States

Traders now treat a US interest-rate rise in December as close to a sure thing, and the odds jumped again in the past day. A rise tends to push up borrowing costs for American households and often firms the dollar, which squeezes developing economies.

Bettors on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gave a December Federal Reserve rate increase an 86.5% chance when we read the market at 6:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday 10 November 2026. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the US central bank, and its main rate steers mortgages, car loans and savings yields.

A day earlier the same outcome was priced about 10 points lower, and about 14 points lower a week ago. The “no change” outcome fell by 14 points in 24 hours to 8.5%.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in December?” market lists five outcomes. Prices are the implied probability that each one happens, read on 10 November at 6:30 a.m. ET:

• 25 bps increase (bps means basis points; 25 is a 0.25-point rise): 86.5%, up about 10 points in 24 hours and about 14 points in a week.
• No change: 8.5%, down about 14 points in 24 hours and about 17 points in a week.
• 50+ bps increase (a rise of half a point or more): about 5%, up about 5 points in 24 hours.
• 25 bps decrease: 0.4%.
• 50+ bps decrease: 0.4%.

The market has traded about US$20.4 million since it opened, and about US$3.6 million changed hands in the last 24 hours, per Polymarket data. Prices across outcomes need not add up to exactly 100%.

Kalshi, the exchange regulated in the US by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), runs a differently built market on the same meeting. Its “above 4.00%” contract pays out if the Fed’s upper rate limit ends the December meeting above today’s 4%, and it last traded at 90 cents, or about 90%.

Its “above 4.25%” contract, which needs a bigger move, sits near 4%. About 7,300 “above 4.00%” contracts traded in 24 hours.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Why the Odds Moved

We found no single event in the past 24 hours that explains the latest jump. The move came on the morning of the next big inflation reading, so traders may be positioning ahead of it.

The longer climb has clearer roots. On Friday 6 November the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the government’s jobs-data agency, reported that employers added 165,000 jobs in October and that unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.

We covered that first jump in our report on the jobs data. Strong hiring gives the Fed less reason to hold back if prices are still rising.

The Fed held its main rate at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday 28 October. Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s rate-setting panel, voted against the decision because they wanted a quarter-point rise: Fed governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack.

That dissent is the clearest official signal so far that a hike is on the table. Two members pushed for it, and a hot inflation reading would give those who favour higher rates a stronger case.

What the Fed Calendar Looks Like

• Tuesday 10 November, 8:30 a.m. ET (today): the October consumer price index (CPI), the main US inflation gauge, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Wednesday 18 November: minutes of the 27–28 October Fed meeting, due about three weeks after the decision, showing how members argued.
• Friday 4 December: the November jobs report.
• 8–9 December: the Fed meeting, with the decision on Wednesday 9 December.

What It Means for US Readers

A 0.25-point rise would lift the rate banks pay each other, and credit-card and car-loan rates usually follow within weeks. Savers with high-yield accounts would earn a little more.

Investors holding US-listed shares of Latin American companies, known as ADRs, should watch the dollar. A rate rise often firms the dollar, which can trim the dollar value of profits earned in Brazilian reais or Mexican pesos.

What It Means for Latin America and Africa

Higher US rates tend to pull money toward dollar assets and away from developing economies. Countries that borrow in dollars, which is common across Latin America and Africa, then face a bigger debt bill, and local currencies often weaken.

Our prediction-market pages follow the same logic for each region: see Latin America odds and Africa odds. We do not forecast how any single country will react.

What Is Not Known

We do not know what drove the latest 10-point step, and we cannot say how the October inflation figure will land. A hot reading could push the hike price toward certainty, and a soft one could pull it back quickly.

Prediction-market prices are bets, not polls and not forecasts by The Rio Times or the Fed. They can reverse within hours.

Sources

Federal Reserve statement of 28 October 2026 (federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm); US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation for October (bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) and release schedule (bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm); FOMC calendar (federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm); Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 10 November 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET).

More from The Rio Times: Prediction Markets hub, Fed hike odds after the jobs report, Fed October hike odds after US inflation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are traders betting on?

They are betting on what the Federal Reserve will do to its main interest rate on 9 December. On Polymarket, a 0.25-point increase trades at 86.5% and no change at 8.5%.

Does an 86.5% price mean a hike is certain?

No. It is a market price, not a forecast by The Rio Times or the Fed. Prices can reverse within hours, and this market is large but not a poll.

What is the Fed’s rate now?

The Fed held its main rate at 3.75% to 4% on 28 October. Two of its 12 voting members wanted a quarter-point rise.

What could change the odds next?

The October inflation report (CPI) today, the Fed meeting minutes on 18 November and the November jobs report on 4 December are the next scheduled tests.

Why does this matter outside the United States?

Higher US rates tend to lift the dollar and raise the cost of dollar loans. Developing economies in Latin America and Africa often feel that first.