ECUADOR · CLIMATE
Key Facts
- —The country Ecuador uses the US dollar and ships shrimp and bananas to the United States.
- —Why it matters A hotter ocean means heavier coastal rain, floods and hydropower swings in a supplier to the US.
- —Why now El Niño entered its most intense phase on Friday 23 October 2026, with heavier coastal rain expected.
- —What happened Sea water off Ecuador and Peru hit 25.9C (78.6F), up to 5.2C (9.4F) above normal.
- —The numbers Since 29 August, 450 rain events hit 22 provinces, and the nation is on red alert.
- —What it means for you Visitors to the coast should expect downpours, flooded streets and road closures in coming months.
- —Still open How strong the peak becomes, and how long the warm sea lasts after it.
- —Power Index Ecuador ranks 8th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 38.2 points (October 2026 edition).
The Ecuador El Niño warning moved up a level on Friday 23 October 2026, when the national weather service said the climate pattern has entered its most intense phase. That matters to US readers because Ecuador sells shrimp, bananas, cacao and flowers to the United States, and heavy rain on its coast can disrupt both travel and supply.
The warning came from the weather and water institute Inamhi and from CN-ERFEN, a national scientific committee that studies El Niño and works with the navy’s ocean institute, Inocar. The committee’s latest bulletin put the sea off Ecuador and Peru at 25.9C (78.6F), up to 5.2C (9.4F) above normal, according to El Universo and Primicias.
In Plain English
- El Niño: a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that changes rainfall, in Ecuador mostly bringing heavy rain to the coast.
- Inamhi: Ecuador’s national weather and water service.
- CN-ERFEN: the national committee that tracks El Niño, with the navy’s ocean institute Inocar.
- Red alert: the most serious level of the risk secretariat’s warning scale, declared for the whole country on 29 August.
- Cenace: the operator of Ecuador’s power grid, which publishes who generates what.
What the Ecuador El Niño Warning Says
Inamhi said on the afternoon of Friday 23 October that El Niño is entering its phase of greatest intensity, which will bring stronger and more frequent rain, especially on the coast. The risk-management secretariat has kept the whole country on red alert since 29 August, and the government’s official alert portal still shows red.
CN-ERFEN described an exceptionally intense warming off Ecuador and a large reserve of heat deep in the ocean. It said the event is still strengthening and that forecasts put its peak toward the end of 2026.
The committee warned that effects on the coast could grow as the rainy season advances, and that warm ocean conditions could last several months after the peak. It urged stronger preparation for river rises and floods.
Primicias noted that the United Nations had warned earlier this week of an unprecedented El Niño, a warning we covered in UN Warns El Niño May Be Off the Charts. The Ecuador announcement adds local readings for the Pacific coast, where the effects are already visible.
Rain and Flood Numbers So Far
Ecuador’s risk-management secretariat counted 450 adverse events caused by rain from 29 August to 23 October, across 22 provinces, 111 cantons and 249 parishes, El Universo reported. Floods made up 56.67% of them, landslides 20.22%, heavy rain 6.44%, windstorms 5.33% and sinkholes 3.11%.
The provinces with the most people affected so far are Esmeraldas, Guayas, Los Ríos, Manabí, Bolívar, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Pichincha and Orellana. Esmeraldas and Guayas have recorded the most events.
The secretariat’s latest report counts nearly 26,000 people affected, more than 2,200 people whose homes or belongings were damaged and three deaths, El Diario reported on 23 October. Secretariat head Carolina Lozano warned that more than 1.3 million people could be exposed, and the government of President Daniel Noboa has budgeted US$650 million for prevention and response.
El Universo, summarising the committee’s findings, said the town of Milagro in Guayas province recorded 195.9 mm (7.7 inches) of rain against a normal 4.2 mm (0.17 inches), a gap of 4,564%. It did not state the period measured, and it also noted rain deficits in parts of the Sierra and the Amazon.
Heavy rain and electrical storms on Friday 23 October flooded streets in many parts of Guayaquil, including Sauces 6 and 9 and the road to Daule, Teleamazonas reported, while Inamhi’s warnings of rain, storms and strong wind run until 25 October. Our earlier report Ecuador Floods Hit 23,000, Landslide Kills 2 covers the damage up to 20 October.
How the Rain Is Helping and Straining Power
The Coca Codo Sinclair plant, Ecuador’s largest at 1,500 megawatts of installed capacity, averaged 1,030 megawatts between midnight and 11:00 on 23 October, or 67% of national hydropower, according to grid operator Cenace data cited by Primicias. From 1 to 20 October the plant had supplied only 27%.
The Coca River peaked at 759 cubic metres per second on the evening of 21 October, against an average of 148 the day before. The plant has only a small regulating reservoir, so its output follows the river.
The three plants of the Paute complex, which draws on the large Mazar reservoir, were switched off for ten hours on both 22 and 23 October. That let the Mazar water level recover from 2,120.9 metres above sea level on 20 October to 2,123 metres on 23 October, still only 8 metres above its critical level of 2,115 metres, Primicias reported.
Mazar had fallen steadily since early August, when it stood near its 2,153-metre maximum, because river flows were low in the dry season. Rio Times has covered the shortfall in Ecuador Power Deficit Hinges on 4 Factors.
Health, Fishing and Elections
The health ministry’s latest bulletin, running to 10 October, listed 1,494 severe respiratory infections, and the ministry has acknowledged that El Niño intensifies the spread of respiratory viruses. Primicias noted that the bulletin showed a dip between 27 September and 10 October after a rise since early September.
The committee report summarised by El Universo said marine productivity is reduced, with less hake and mackerel and larger catches of pinchagua, many of them juveniles. It also said yields of pomada shrimp remain favourable, without giving catch figures.
On 29 November Ecuadorians vote for mayors, prefects (provincial governors), city councillors, parish board members and seven members of the Citizens’ Participation Council, an election moved up from 14 February 2027 because of El Niño risk, the electoral council decided in March. The National Assembly will pause its work from 12 to 26 November, the campaign period, Primicias reported on 23 October.
What It Means for You
US importers should note that shrimp, Ecuador’s top non-oil export to the United States, is hit by a new 10% US surcharge, while bananas, cacao and flowers are exempt, according to the exporters’ federation Fedexpor cited by Primicias on 17 October. How the rain will affect harvests and shipments is not established in the sources reviewed.
Visitors to the coast, especially Guayaquil, Esmeraldas and Los Ríos, should expect downpours, flooded streets and landslide closures, such as the one on the Alóag to Santo Domingo road on 23 October. Our Ecuador Flood Safety Guide for US Travelers on the Coast and the Quito expat city guide cover practical steps.
Residents and investors can read the wider picture in our guides Ecuador Explained and Ecuador Geopolitics Explained 2026. Primicias said the rain eased pressure on Mazar for a second day, but the sources do not show whether the relief will last.
What Is Not Known
The sources do not say how strong the peak will be or exactly when it will arrive, beyond forecasts of late 2026. They also do not say how much damage to exports, roads and homes the coming rainy season will cause.
The CN-ERFEN bulletin itself could not be opened, because the navy ocean institute’s website lists no bulletin after July, although Inocar posted the findings on 23 October. The figures rest on El Universo, Primicias, El Comercio and Teleamazonas, which quote the committee, Inamhi, the risk secretariat and Cenace.
Event and casualty counts come from different agencies and periods, so they cannot be added together. El Universo gives the 5.2C reading as an anomaly of up to that size in the Niño 1+2 region near Ecuador and Peru, so it should not be read as the same rise everywhere along the coast.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Ecuador announce about El Niño on 23 October?
Inamhi said El Niño is entering its most intense phase, with heavier and more frequent rain on the coast. The scientific committee CN-ERFEN said the sea off Ecuador and Peru is 25.9C (78.6F), up to 5.2C above normal.
Is Ecuador on flood alert?
Yes, Ecuador has been on national red alert since 29 August. Inamhi also issued warnings of rain, storms and strong wind until 25 October.
When will the Ecuador El Niño peak arrive?
Forecasts put the greatest intensity toward the end of 2026. The committee said warm ocean conditions could last several months after the peak.
How is the rain affecting Ecuador’s power supply?
Rain lifted Coca Codo Sinclair to 67% of hydropower on 23 October. The Mazar reservoir recovered slightly but remains only 8 metres above its critical level.
What does it mean for US readers?
Ecuador ships shrimp, bananas, cacao and flowers to the United States, so rain and floods can matter for supply. Visitors to the coast should expect downpours and road closures.
Sources: Primicias, El Niño alert, 23 October 2026; El Universo, Inamhi alert, 23 October 2026; El Universo, ocean and rain signals, 23 October 2026; Primicias, Coca Codo Sinclair and Mazar, 23 October 2026; Primicias, respiratory infections; Primicias, Assembly recess, 23 October 2026; Primicias, US trade surcharge, 17 October 2026; Teleamazonas, 23 October 2026; Teleamazonas, Guayaquil floods, 23 October 2026; El Comercio, 23 October 2026; El Diario, rain damage, 23 October 2026; Ecuador risk secretariat, El Niño alert portal; Primicias, red alert, 29 August 2026; Primicias, electoral council date, 27 March 2026; Inocar, ERFEN bulletins.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error