Ecopetrol Braces for Sharp Profit Drop in Second Quarter 2025 Amid Price Pressures

Colombia’s leading oil company, Ecopetrol, has warned of a difficult second quarter in 2025. Based on its official reports, the company expects net profits between 1.8 and 3 trillion Colombian pesos (COP 1.8–3 trillion / $439–732 million).

This is less than half of what it earned in the same period last year. Revenue will likely fall to 27–30 trillion pesos (COP 27–30 trillion / $6.6–7.3 billion), lower than its first-quarter results.

The main reason is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which averaged only $66.70 per barrel in the quarter. This level is far below what Ecopetrol needs for strong profits.

According to the company’s public statements, every $1 drop in oil price means about 700 billion pesos (COP 700 billion / $171 million) less in net profit.

The company’s leadership, including CEO Ricardo Roa, has warned that if oil prices stay this low, total profits for the year could fall by as much as 12 trillion pesos (COP 12 trillion / $2.9 billion).

Despite the low prices, Ecopetrol has kept production steady at around 750,000 barrels per day. Transportation volumes also remain stable, showing the company’s focus on maintaining its place as Colombia’s top oil producer.

Even so, Ecopetrol has announced it may need to shut down up to 30 oil fields if prices drop further and make those sites unprofitable. This sharp decline in earnings is not just a company issue.

Ecopetrol’s Performance

Ecopetrol generates over 60% of Colombia’s oil and provides key tax revenue and dividends to the government. The company’s performance is directly tied to Colombia’s finances, which rely heavily on oil exports.

When profits fall, the government’s budget faces serious pressure. Ecopetrol still plans to invest up to 28 trillion pesos (COP 28 trillion / $6.8 billion) in 2025, mostly in oil and gas projects.

However, the company’s focus has already shifted to adapting quickly and protecting its core operations. These tough choices mark a turning point for both the company and Colombia as they navigate the new reality of lower oil prices and tighter budgets.

This story, grounded in Ecopetrol’s official financial releases and management statements, highlights the difficult trade-offs facing any major producer when a single export shapes the fate of an entire economy.