A federal judge has refused to let the Trump administration freeze about 20,000 California ballots less than a week before Election Day. Our US midterms 2026 hub tracks the race for Congress, and our 2026 US midterm elections explainer covers the basics.
Key Facts
- Ruling: A federal judge refused to set aside about 20,000 California ballots on Wednesday, 28 October.
- Why: The judge said the request would “wreak havoc” on an election already under way.
- Next: Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November; Republicans hold the Senate 53–47 and the House 218–214.
- Not known: Whether the Justice Department appeals is not yet confirmed.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket prices Democrats at 67.5% for the Senate and 92.5% for the House (6:30 a.m. ET, 29 October).
This story is part of our coverage of the 2026 US midterm elections. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
What the Judge Decided
US District Judge David Carter, who sits in California, rejected an emergency request from the US Department of Justice on 28 October 2026. The department wanted California to set aside, or “segregate”, about 20,000 ballots it said came from people who were likely not US citizens.
Carter wrote that the step would “wreak havoc and disrupt the election that is already underway, create a chilling effect on election workers and voters alike, and discount the votes of United States citizens.” He also found the department likely lacked standing, meaning the legal right to bring the case, and a valid cause of action.
The judge said the emergency was “solely due to its own neglect”. In plain terms, he held that the government had waited too long to ask.
Why It Matters Before 3 November
Federal law bars non-citizens from voting in federal elections. States run their own elections, so the ruling tests how far Washington can reach into a state’s count in the final days.
California is the largest US state by population, so its count matters for the race for control of the House of Representatives. Republicans hold that chamber by a narrow margin.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, priced Democrats at 67.5% to win the Senate and 92.5% to win the House at 6:30 a.m. ET on 29 October. The Senate market had traded about US$10.6 million and the House market about US$26.4 million.
Republicans now hold the Senate 53–47 and the House 218–214, so these prices imply a large shift in both chambers. They are bets, not polls, and can move within minutes of news.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Senate Polls Behind the Prices
In Michigan, a Mitchell Research poll taken 26–27 October had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 51% and Republican Mike Rogers at 44%. In Florida, a St. Pete Polls survey of 25–27 October had Republican Ashley Moody at 49% and Democrat Angie Nixon at 45%.
In Ohio, a Suffolk University poll of 21–26 October put Democrat Sherrod Brown at 47% and Republican Jon Husted at 44%. In South Carolina, a Siena poll of 19–26 October showed Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48%.
What It Means for You
If you live in California, your county elections office remains the place for official updates. Wherever you vote, check your state or county authority for polling hours and results.
For investors and travellers watching US politics, the ruling is one more sign that the count will run through state officials. Control of Congress decides tariff, sanctions and budget fights that reach Latin America and Africa.
What Is Not Known
We could not confirm whether the Justice Department will appeal, or whether any of the 20,000 ballots were cast unlawfully.
Sources
Published Thursday, 29 October, 6:30 a.m. ET. Source: order of US District Judge David Carter (28 October), US Department of Justice filings, Polymarket market data, pollster releases (Mitchell Research, St. Pete Polls, Suffolk University, Siena).
Related: Democrats Need Four Senate Seats · Midterms Start at 11 P.M. in London
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the judge rule in the California ballot case?
Judge David Carter refused the Justice Department’s request to set aside about 20,000 ballots. He said it would disrupt an election already under way.
When is Election Day for the 2026 midterms?
Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Polling hours are set by each state and county.