COLOMBIA · PUBLIC DEBT · MARKETS
Colombia has pushed back about US$3.3 billion of bond payments due in 2026 and 2027, which buys time but does not cut the debt.
Key Facts
- —What happened Colombia swapped short-term peso bonds worth COP 10.3 trillion (about US$3.3 billion) for longer-dated ones.
- —Payments moved Payments due fall by about US$475 million in 2026 and US$2.8 billion in 2027.
- —What it cost The swap cost about US$148 million, or 4.5% of the amount exchanged, and adds no net debt.
- —Why now The 2027 deficit is projected at 9.4% of GDP unless the government adopts new measures.
- —What is next A third and final swap this year is scheduled for Thursday 19 November 2026.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives 54% to no change and 31.5% to a 25-basis-point rise at the central bank’s decision on Friday 30 October (25 October, 5:08 a.m. ET).
- —Power Index Colombia ranks 6th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 51.9 points (October 2026 edition).
Colombia’s Finance Ministry announced on Friday 23 October 2026 a second Colombia debt swap in three weeks, trading Treasury bonds worth COP 10.3 trillion (about US$3.3 billion) for bonds that fall due later. The ministry says the exchange cuts the payments it must make by about US$475 million in the rest of 2026 and about US$2.8 billion in 2027, but it does not reduce what the state owes.
For US investors it matters because Colombia, which S&P and Fitch rate below investment grade, is using swaps to keep its peso Treasury bonds, called TES, manageable while its deficit stays large. Dollar values in this article use 3,158.43 pesos per US dollar, the official market rate (TRM) in force from Saturday 24 to Monday 26 October 2026, as published on Colombia’s open-data portal.
In Plain English
- TES: Títulos de Tesorería, the peso bonds that Colombia’s Treasury sells to banks and investors to fund the state.
- Debt swap: investors hand back bonds that fall due soon and receive bonds that fall due later, so the debt is moved, not erased.
- Finance Ministry: the department that runs the budget and the debt, led by Miguel Gómez Martínez in President Abelardo de la Espriella’s government.
- Banco de la República: the central bank, which sets the policy interest rate, now 12.25%.
How the Colombia Debt Swap Worked
The ministry ran the swap in two parts. In the first, a competitive auction among the 13 institutions that act as official market makers, bids reached COP 7.5 trillion (about US$2.4 billion) and the ministry accepted COP 6.2 trillion (about US$2 billion), an acceptance rate of 83%.
In the second part the ministry placed another COP 4.1 trillion (about US$1.3 billion) on the same terms, with market makers taking COP 700 billion (about US$222 million) and the ministry’s own public-credit and Treasury directorate COP 3.4 trillion (about US$1.1 billion). Together the two parts make the COP 10.3 trillion (about US$3.3 billion) that changed hands.
The deal cost the Treasury COP 467 billion (about US$148 million), which is 4.5% of the amount swapped and goes to the creditors who accepted. The ministry says it did not raise net debt, and the average life of Colombia’s peso government debt grew from 10.14 to 10.21 years.
“We thank the 13 institutions of the market-maker program for their active participation in the restructuring plan and the local and foreign investors for their confidence in the Colombian capital market”
Finance Minister Miguel Gómez Martínez, in the ministry’s statement as carried by La República (translated from Spanish)
Which Bonds Moved and What Is Next
Among the bonds handed back, IFM Noticias lists issues due on 26 January 2027 (COP 2.1 trillion, about US$665 million), 17 March 2027 (COP 3.2 trillion, about US$1 billion) and 3 November 2027 (COP 3.5 trillion, about US$1.1 billion), plus one due on 17 November 2026 (COP 1.1 trillion, about US$348 million). The same outlet says the replacement bonds mature between 2027 and 2058.
Colombia’s 2026 Bond Swaps
- Friday 2 October 2026: first swap of COP 19.8 trillion (about US$6.3 billion at the rate used here), cutting 2026 payments by COP 2.4 trillion (about US$760 million) and 2027 payments by COP 17.4 trillion (about US$5.5 billion).
- Friday 23 October 2026: second swap announced, COP 10.3 trillion (about US$3.3 billion).
- Thursday 19 November 2026: third and final swap of the year scheduled; its size has not been published.
- Together: COP 30.1 trillion (about US$9.5 billion), which the ministry says cuts 2026 maturities by 50% and 2027 maturities by 19%.
Why Colombia Is Doing It
The reason is a large budget gap. The central bank’s general manager, Leonardo Villar, said on Tuesday 1 September 2026 that the government’s updated financial plan points to a 2027 deficit of 9.4% of GDP and net debt of 66.2%, which he called a diagnosis of risks, not government targets.
The government has announced a fiscal adjustment law that would cut that deficit to 7.2% of GDP, a level Villar said would still be too high to restore the fiscal rule from 2028. The deficit was 6.4% of GDP in 2025 and 6.7% in 2024, according to the ministry’s year-end figures as reported by Valora Analitik.
Shocks have added to the strain, including a magnitude 7.4 earthquake near San José del Palmar on Monday 10 August 2026, recorded by the US Geological Survey. Vanguardia cites estimates of US$9.5 billion to US$14 billion for its economic cost.
Ratings agencies have moved the wrong way: S&P cut Colombia to BB- with a stable outlook on Wednesday 8 April 2026, and Fitch had cut it to BB in December 2025, Valora Analitik reported. Moody’s last action that we could confirm was a cut to Baa3, the lowest investment-grade step, in June 2025.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket traders gave 54% to no change at the Banco de la República’s meeting on Friday 30 October 2026 and 31.5% to a 25-basis-point rise, with a rise of 50 points or more near 2.4% and a cut of any size near 5% (25 October, 5:08 a.m. ET). The central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on Wednesday 30 September 2026, in a vote of four for the rise, one for a larger rise and two for no change.
The bet on a rise gained 2.0 points in the past day and 3.5 points in the past week, while no change lost 3.5 points on the day. The whole market has traded about US$57,000, so it is thin, and it covers the rate decision, not the debt swap itself.
The board said on 30 September that fiscal policy measures will be central to its upcoming decisions, so the fiscal news around the swaps is part of the backdrop. These are traders’ bets, not a forecast by the central bank.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for You
Dates to Watch
- Thursday 29 October 2026: the IMF and World Bank debt mission in Colombia ends.
- Friday 30 October 2026: the Banco de la República announces its next interest-rate decision.
- Thursday 19 November 2026: the third and final bond swap of the year is scheduled.
The bonds swapped are TES, Colombia’s peso Treasury bonds, and the finance minister thanked both local and foreign investors for their confidence in the market. The ministry describes the operation as one on domestic public debt, which means Colombia’s dollar-denominated global bonds were not part of it.
The swap eases refinancing pressure in 2026 and 2027 but not the deficit behind it, and S&P’s April downgrade cited the suspended fiscal rule and large deficits since 2024. The next test for investors is whether the adjustment law passes and whether the central bank raises its rate again on Friday 30 October.
An IMF and World Bank technical team is in Colombia until Thursday 29 October to help update the 2027 to 2030 debt strategy, which La República describes as technical assistance. Forbes Colombia notes that this mission is separate from talks about possible IMF financial support.
What Is Not Known
The reports we reviewed do not give the yields at which the new bonds were priced, so the full cost of the swap beyond the COP 467 billion (about US$148 million) paid to creditors is not clear. They also do not say how much foreign investors took part or who now holds the new bonds.
The size of the third swap on Thursday 19 November has not been published, and the reports we reviewed give no date for passing the fiscal adjustment law that Villar says is needed. No IMF loan has been announced in those reports, so it is not known whether the technical mission will lead to financial support.
What We Could Not Verify
- The ministry’s own results tables were not available to us as text, so the figures come from its statement as carried by La República, Valora Analitik, La FM and Semana, and the ministry’s own page confirms the COP 10.3 trillion headline.
- The list of bonds handed back comes from IFM Noticias alone and is partial: it does not add up to the full COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) of 2026 relief.
- Moody’s current rating and outlook: the last action we could confirm is the June 2025 cut to Baa3.
Connected Coverage
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Colombia debt swap?
Colombia’s Finance Ministry exchanged TES bonds worth COP 10.3 trillion (about US$3.3 billion) that fall due soon for bonds that fall due later. It announced the result on Friday 23 October 2026.
Does the swap reduce Colombia’s debt?
It does not, because the payments are only moved to later years. The ministry says the swap did not raise net debt, and it cost COP 467 billion (about US$148 million).
When is the next swap?
The ministry has scheduled a third and final swap of the year for Thursday 19 November 2026. Its size has not been published.
Why does it matter to US investors?
S&P and Fitch rate Colombia below investment grade, and the swaps show how it manages peso bond payments while the deficit stays large. Holders of TES and watchers of the 30 October rate decision are the most exposed.
Sources: Valora Analitik, Ministry statement of the second swap, 23 October 2026, La República, 23 October 2026, Semana, 23 October 2026, La FM, 23 October 2026, IFM Noticias, 24 October 2026, Vanguardia, 24 October 2026, El Tiempo on the first swap, 3 October 2026, Banco de la República, comments of the general manager on the 2027 budget, 1 September 2026, Banco de la República, board decision of 30 September 2026, Banco de la República, meeting calendar, Colombian open-data portal, official market rate (TRM), Finance Ministry, 2026 press bulletins, Finance Ministry, request to the IMF, 28 September 2026, La República, IMF and World Bank mission, 20 October 2026, Forbes Colombia, 21 October 2026, Valora Analitik, 2025 deficit, 4 March 2026, Valora Analitik, S&P downgrade, 8 April 2026, Valora Analitik, Fitch, 19 February 2026, Portafolio, Moody’s Baa3 cut, June 2025, US Geological Survey, magnitude 7.4 earthquake, 10 August 2026, Polymarket, Central Bank of Colombia decision in October. Retrieved 25 October 2026. Prediction-market prices were read on 25 October, 5:08 a.m. ET.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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