Colombia Pledges US$855M to Avert Blackouts

COLOMBIA · ENERGY · EL NIÑO

Colombia’s government says it will back a COP 2.7 trillion (about US$855 million) package to keep the lights on through El Niño, mixing cash for power companies, more imported gas and bill discounts for households that save.

The Colombia El Niño power plan is worth COP 2.7 trillion (about US$855 million), according to government announcements that El Espectador and El Diario reported on Saturday, 24 October 2026, and it aims to cut the risk of blackouts when reservoirs run low. Presidential spokesman Miller Soto listed two cash items, more imported gas, technical changes at the Hidroituango dam and bill discounts for households that save power.

It matters to US readers because American investors hold Colombian bonds and shares, and a blackout would hit factories, hotels and visitors alike. The total is less new than it sounds, because the COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) part matches a sum the energy ministry announced on Monday, 24 August, and the COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) part matches a bill that has been before Congress since late September.

What the Colombia El Niño Power Plan Contains

Soto said the government has asked Congress, under an urgency message, to approve a transfer of COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) from the 2026 budget, El Espectador reported. A second line, he said, is COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) to clear the current debt of the distributor Air-e and to strengthen the capital of Dispac.

The plan also adds 58 billion British thermal units a day of capacity at the Cartagena gas-import terminal, and it loosens how the Hidroituango dam in Antioquia is run, El Diario reported. The same paper said President Abelardo de la Espriella set Thursday, 31 December, as a “non-negotiable” deadline, and that part of the funding still depends on Congress.

How the Money Fits Together

The energy ministry said on Monday, 24 August, that it had committed COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) for the rest of 2026 to pay current debts to thermal generators from September, on top of subsidies for lower-income households. It said the payment chain has a liquidity problem and that low water has forced more thermal generation, which costs more.

The COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) transfer is a bill that the finance ministry filed in late September, El Heraldo reported, moving money from a transport investment line and an electricity programme to the utilities superintendency so it can pay Air-e’s debts to generators directly. On Tuesday, 20 October, Finance Minister Miguel Gómez Martínez asked the Senate to speed it up, and Portafolio described the money as covering electricity subsidies.

Dollar figures in this article use the official exchange rate of 3,158.43 pesos per dollar, in force from Saturday, 24 October, to Monday, 26 October. The energy ministry cited a different total of COP 1.9 trillion (about US$602 million) for Plan Energía YA on Wednesday, 7 October, and we found no document that reconciles it with the new COP 2.7 trillion (about US$855 million).

Why El Niño Is Straining Colombia’s Power Grid

The weather institute IDEAM declared El Niño on Thursday, 8 October, and gave an 83% chance that it stays strong to very strong until at least March 2027. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the US forecaster, kept an El Niño Advisory the same day and put the chance of a strong-to-very-strong event through January to March 2027 above 83%.

Open data from XM, the grid and market operator, show that reservoirs held 76.5% of their usable volume on Friday, 23 October, against 83.4% a year earlier. Thermal plants supplied 38.8% of power on Wednesday, 21 October, against 9.7% on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, by our calculation from XM plant-level data.

What Households and Firms Are Asked to Do

Soto said users who cut consumption by more than 10% against their individual target will get a direct benefit on their bill, while those who exceed it by more than 10% will pay extra, El Espectador reported. The energy ministry, under the previous government, said on Friday, 31 July, that savers can win discounts of up to 40%, and that a user who consumes 30% over target pays 30% more on the excess.

The regulator CREG already runs a temporary savings programme under resolutions 101 120 and 101 126 of 2026. On Friday, 23 October, it said preliminary data show that 81.4% of 5.2 million users in the reporting markets saved energy or stayed within their limit.

CREG said on Wednesday, 9 September, that it had also switched on a mechanism that sets a minimum level of thermal generation tied to reservoir levels. The aim, it said, is to meet more demand with thermal plants and save water for the coming months.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a prediction exchange, prices the chance that the 2026 to 2027 El Niño peaks at 2.5 or higher on NOAA’s relative Oceanic Niño index at about 70% (Sunday, 25 October, 5:09 a.m. ET). About US$54,000 has traded on that contract and about US$123,000 across the whole peak-strength market.

The contract is a bet on the global El Niño, not on Colombia’s grid, and it does not say how a given peak would translate into outages. NOAA’s own 83% chance of a historic October to December reading points the same way as the market.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For US investors, the plan matters mostly for who pays, because the COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) depends on a vote in Congress and the bill text, as El Heraldo quoted it, warns that unpaid utility debt can pass along the chain to generators and transmitters. Colombian peso assets may also carry inflation risk from power bills, since wholesale prices in September were more than double those of a year earlier.

For US companies and visitors in Colombia, no outage date has been announced, but the government is urging everyone to use less power, including by moderating air conditioners and water heaters, El Diario reported. Firms with heavy cooling loads should check whether the savings programme sets a target for their sites.

What Is Not Known

The public record does not show whether the COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) and the COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) overlap, because El Heraldo describes the bill as paying Air-e’s debts to generators, close to the stated use of the second sum. Nor is it clear how the total relates to the COP 1.9 trillion (about US$602 million) the ministry cited on Wednesday, 7 October, or whether the COP 1.5 trillion goes to thermal generators, as the ministry said on Monday, 24 August, or to Air-e and Dispac, as the spokesman put it.

No technical details have been published for the Hidroituango change or the Cartagena expansion, including start dates and how the added 58 billion British thermal units a day compare with the terminal’s 475 million cubic feet a day. The government has given no estimate of the chance of a blackout, and El Espectador’s forecast that thermal plants could supply half of power by year end is not backed by published official figures.

We did not see Soto’s original post, so his wording comes from El Espectador and El Diario. We also found no legal text for the new savings incentive beyond the CREG resolutions already in force.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does Colombia’s COP 2.7 trillion plan include?

It combines COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) from the 2026 budget with COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) for power-sector debts. It also adds gas capacity, changes at the Hidroituango dam and savings incentives.

Is the money already approved?

Only part. The COP 1.5 trillion (about US$475 million) was committed in August, but the COP 1.2 trillion (about US$380 million) transfer still needs Congress.

Will Colombia have blackouts?

The government says it wants to avoid them, but it has given no date or probability for an outage. Reservoir levels and rain through early 2027 will decide the risk.

How can households get a bill discount?

Under the savings programme, users who cut consumption below their own target get a discount, and those who exceed it pay extra. The energy ministry has said discounts can reach 40%.

Does El Niño mean it will not rain in Colombia?

It will still rain at times, because the weather institute says El Niño does not stop the rain. It expects less rain than normal in the second rainy season, which runs through October and November.

Sources: El Espectador, 24 October 2026, El Diario, 24 October 2026, Energy ministry, COP 1.5 trillion, 24 August 2026, Energy ministry, Plan Energía YA, 7 October 2026, Energy ministry, savings rules, 31 July 2026, Energy ministry, Cartagena terminal capacity, 29 September 2026, IDEAM, El Niño declaration, 8 October 2026, IDEAM, El Niño page, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 8 October 2026, CREG, preventive measures, 9 September 2026, CREG, savings results, 23 October 2026, XM open data service (reservoirs, inflows, generation, demand, spot price), queried 25 October 2026, El Heraldo, 9 September 2026, El Heraldo, 29 September 2026, Portafolio, 20 October 2026, Official TRM exchange rate, open data portal, Dispac. All opened on 25 October 2026. Prediction-market prices: Polymarket public data, 25 October 2026, 5:09 a.m. ET.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief