Brazil’s Stocks Defy Jitters: Record Intraday High, Strong Real, and Metal Miners in Front

Brazil’s Ibovespa climbed to a new intraday record on Monday before easing slightly, as commodity resilience, fiscal pledges from Brasília, and steady global risk appetite underpinned demand for equities ahead of pivotal U.S. economic data later this week.

The benchmark index advanced 0.61% to 146,336.80, after briefly hitting 147,558.22, its highest level on record. The real strengthened, with the dollar closing at R$5.32. Turnover was moderate, but the session highlighted sharp divergences between sectors.

Eletrobras led the winners, with its preferred shares (ELET6) jumping 4.3% to R$55.56 and common stock (ELET3) rising 3.9% to R$52.68, both setting post-privatization highs above R$50.

CSN Mineração added nearly 4% to R$5.52, helped by optimism in metals, while state lender Banco do Brasil also gained ground.

At the other end, Braskem sank 5.1% to R$6.66 after Fitch and S&P slashed its ratings following the company’s hiring of restructuring advisers, fueling fears of a judicial workout.

Retailer Magazine Luiza lost 5.1% to R$10.62 amid consumer-spending concerns. Truck-leasing firm Vamos fell 3% to R$3.57, Embraer shed 2.2% to R$79.03, and Petrobras slipped nearly 1.9% to R$34.32 as Brent crude declined on expectations OPEC+ may raise output in November.

Macro data offered mixed cues. Brazil created 147,358 formal jobs in August, the weakest result for the month since 2020, though year-to-date hiring remained positive.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad reaffirmed fiscal targets for 2025–26, while central bank director Gabriel Galípolo cautioned that inflation convergence still requires “much effort,” signaling prudence on rates.

Abroad, Wall Street closed higher (Dow +0.15%, S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.48%) as traders priced in strong odds of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve cut and largely discounted the risk of a government shutdown.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.2% on pharma strength, while Asian markets were mixed. Technically, the Ibovespa remains in an uptrend, trading above its 21-, 50-, and 200-day averages, with a daily RSI near 67 indicating strength without being overbought.

On the four-hour chart, momentum has cooled, suggesting room for consolidation unless fresh catalysts emerge. Resistance stands at the record 147,558, while support lies near 145,800 and deeper at 143,000.

With U.S. jobs data and oil-market developments looming, today’s session will test whether global risk appetite can sustain Brazil’s rally.

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