Oil Fund Rises 0.83% as Fuel Shortage Persists | Oil, Nov 3
Key Facts
- Oil bounced, but stays near its peak: the fund that tracks US crude (USO) closed Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at US$158.17, up 0.83%, still 6.7% below its 23 October high of 169.53.
- The main cause is a tight fuel market: the war on Iran has cut Middle East refining, so diesel and gasoline are scarce even though crude flows have recovered.
- American stocks are draining: the previous industry reading showed US crude inventories falling by 2.031 million barrels in the week to 23 October; the next reading was not yet in our calendar when we wrote.
- Latin America splits in two: Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose +2.29% and Argentina’s YPF rose +2.19%, while Brazil’s Petrobras slipped -0.38%.
- The longer picture is steep: the oil fund is 139.0% above its December 2025 low of 66.17 and up 25.6% in 60 sessions.
- The test comes quickly: the next official US inventory report and any change in the Iran war decide whether the 169.53 peak is retested.
- Prediction markets: Polymarket puts a 78% chance on WTI crude touching US$100 in November (7:55 p.m. ET, 3 November).
Today’s Focus
Oil edged higher on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, but the move is small next to the story behind it. The fund that tracks US crude closed at US$158.17, up 0.83%, after dipping 3.48% over the previous five sessions.
The main reason is a shortage of refined fuel. The war on Iran has crippled refining capacity in the Middle East, so Asia now buys crude at pre-war levels but struggles to get diesel and petrol.
For Latin America this is a windfall with a catch. Oil producers such as Colombia and Argentina gain directly, while Brazil’s Petrobras fell even as crude held up.
What matters today. Oil is expensive because fuel, not crude, is scarce, and that kind of shortage lasts until refineries or shipping routes recover.
01 The session in one read
Think of oil as a bathtub with a blocked drain: crude is arriving, but the refined fuel that people actually buy is not coming out fast enough. That is the market on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The fund that tracks US crude (USO) rose 0.83% to US$158.17, its first gain after a short slide. It remains 6.7% below the 23 October high of 169.53.
The fund is a proxy, meaning it follows crude futures rather than showing the price of a barrel itself. Even so, its direction is a reliable guide to the mood of the market.
The best-supported reading is that the war has broken the link between crude and finished fuel, which keeps prices high even on quiet days. We are medium-confident, because the day’s own move was small and the dollar and bond yields pointed the other way. The variable to watch is the weekly US inventory count, because a third straight large draw would confirm that supply is still tightening.
02 The board
Three Latin American oil names moved in different directions. Colombia’s Ecopetrol rose +2.29% to US$16.54, and Argentina’s YPF rose +2.19% to US$44.81.
Brazil’s Petrobras eased -0.38% to US$21.08, its second fall in a row. Higher crude does not automatically lift it, because the shares also trade on Brazilian politics and dividend expectations.
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI crude (USO) | US$158.17 | +0.83% |
| Petrobras | US$21.08 | -0.38% |
| Ecopetrol | US$16.54 | +2.29% |
| YPF | US$44.81 | +2.19% |
Source: RT close, 2026-11-03. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
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Latin America — Cross-Market Board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 165,528.92 | -1.42% | +19.56% | 167,921.80 | 178,526 | 175,157 | — |
| IPSA | 10,365.73 | -0.09% | — | 10,375.55 | 10,722 | 10,633 | — |
| IPC MEX | 70,848.90 | +1.53% | +12.74% | 69,779.20 | 70,008 | 69,383 | 49,372,306 |
| MERVAL | 2,848,945 | — | +12.65% | 2,859,051 | — | — | — |
| COLCAP | 2,527.66 | +1.47% | — | — | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.34 | -1.32% | -0.84% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 5.30 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +7.53% | -4.87% | 5.54 | 6.04 | 5.92 | — |
| USD/MXN | 18.69 | +0.62% | +1.45% | 18.57 | 18.69 | 18.54 | — |
| USD/CLP | 983.47 | -0.57% | +5.64% | 989.13 | 991.87 | 979.07 | — |
| USD/COP | 3,149 | +3.06% | -18.02% | 3,056 | 3,173 | 3,111 | — |
| USD/PEN | 3.45 | +0.17% | +3.85% | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.44 | — |
| USD/ARS | 1,537 | -0.28% | +3.77% | 1,541 | 1,541 | 1,537 | — |
| USD/UYU | 40.21 | +3.57% | +2.29% | 38.83 | 40.21 | 40.08 | — |
| USD/PYG | 5,803 | +3.78% | -16.54% | 5,592 | 5,803 | 5,735 | — |
| USD/BOB | 11.97 | +4.93% | +77.92% | 11.41 | 11.97 | 11.82 | — |
| USD/DOP | 60.54 | +1.83% | -4.34% | 59.45 | 61.14 | 59.85 | — |
| USD/CRC | 451.24 | +2.13% | -7.80% | 441.83 | 451.40 | 450.04 | — |
| USD/GTQ | 7.64 | +3.23% | +2.18% | 7.40 | 7.64 | 7.64 | — |
03 Why it moved
First, and with most weight, is the fuel shortage. Asian crude imports are back to pre-war levels, but imports of diesel and gasoline from the Middle East have collapsed because refineries there are running at reduced capacity.
Second, American stocks have been falling. The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, estimated a fall of 2.031 million barrels in the week to 23 October, and the next reading was not yet available to us.
The usual drivers disagreed with the rise. The dollar index edged up 0.14% to 101.89 and the ten-year US Treasury yield rose 7 basis points to 4.97%, both of which normally weigh on oil.
The most likely reading is a rebound after a 3.48% five-session dip, helped by the shortage and by the falling stocks. Election Day in the United States is a possible background factor, but we found no reporting tying it to oil. Confidence in this ranking is medium.
Producers are also gaining. Saudi Aramco’s results, released on 3 November, show profits rising even as its physical operations are strained, and executives at an energy conference in Abu Dhabi said the war has tripled logistics costs for oilfield contractors.
04 The trend behind it
This is a continuation, not a new phase. The oil fund has gained 9.15% in 20 sessions and 25.6% in 60, and stands 139.0% above its 16 December 2025 low of 66.17.
The peak of 169.53 on 23 October marked the top so far, and the past week has been a pullback within an uptrend.
Our own price history since 2007 offers a cautionary note. After 89 earlier rises of this size in 20 sessions, the fund was higher 20 sessions later in 46 cases, or 52%, with a median change of +0.5% and a worst case of -24.0%. History is not a forecast, but it shows that a rally this large is close to a coin toss from here.
Wider markets are nervous. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed at 20.83 after rising 18.89% in five sessions, while the S&P 500 rose 0.36% on the day but is down 1.99% over five sessions.
05 What it means for Latin America
Producers gain most. Ecopetrol is still 9.4% below its 15 September high of 18.26, so Colombia’s budget, which leans on oil exports, has room for more recovery.
Argentina is the clearest long-term winner. Its Vaca Muerta shale field is reported to have passed 550,000 barrels a day, and YPF holds six of the ten areas with the largest planned investment there this year.
The risk for everyone is that new supply eventually caps prices. Brazil, Guyana and Argentina together are expected to add roughly 750,000 to 1 million barrels a day of non-OPEC+ output in 2026, which is a counterweight to the war premium.
Importers and travellers feel the other side. Diesel is the scarce product, so freight, farming and bus fares are the first to rise in fuel-importing countries.
06 The names to watch
Petrobras is the oddity, down 11.43% in 20 sessions and 19.4% below its 23 October high of 26.16, though still 15.0% higher over 60 sessions. It has also signed a cooperation agreement with Mexico’s Pemex on a so-called Mexican pre-salt, covering exploration, refining and petrochemicals, though we could not confirm its date.
Venezuela is the wildcard. One Brazilian oil company is reportedly accelerating its push there, betting that looser US sanctions will open the market, but the report does not name it and we have not verified it.
Big Oil is choosing caution. Europe’s six largest majors booked a collective 38 billion dollars of profit in the July-to-September quarter, yet they are putting debt reduction ahead of new spending, which limits how fast new supply can arrive.
07 What would end it
Resistance is the 23 October peak of 169.53, and the next support is the round 150 area, then the 66.17 December low far below. A close above the peak would signal a new leg higher.
The next dated event is the official US weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday 4 November at 15:30 Lisbon time, which will show the stocks change for the week to 30 October (previous: a fall of 1.892 million barrels).
The one thing that would change the picture is a lasting end to the Iran war and a restart of Middle East refining. Until then, tight fuel supplies make a sustained collapse in prices unlikely, though pullbacks like the 3.48% dip are normal.
08 What to watch
- US inventories: The official weekly report on 4 November will show whether stocks are still falling after the previous fall of 1.892 million barrels.
- Iran war: Any ceasefire or restart of Middle East refining would ease the fuel shortage that props up prices.
- The 169.53 peak: A close above it would signal a new leg higher; failure would point to a range.
- Petrobras versus Ecopetrol: A gap between a falling Petrobras and a rising Ecopetrol shows markets are pricing politics and payouts, not just crude.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, a prediction market where users bet real money, shows a 78.0% chance that WTI crude, the US oil benchmark, touches US$100 a barrel at some point in November. It prices 52.0% for US$105, 35.0% for US$110 and 61.5% for a dip to US$90, with US$876,098 traded. Prices were read at 7:55 p.m. ET on 3 November 2026. These are bets, not forecasts.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil rise on Tuesday, November 3, 2026?
The oil-tracking fund rose 0.83%, helped by a global fuel shortage caused by the Iran war and falling US crude stocks. We rate that explanation medium-confidence.
Is the oil price near a record?
The fund is 6.7% below its 23 October high of 169.53 and 139.0% above its December 2025 low of 66.17.
Who gains in Latin America?
Producers such as Colombia’s Ecopetrol and Argentina’s YPF gain most, while fuel importers face higher diesel costs.
Does history say oil will keep rising?
After 89 similar rises, the fund was higher 20 sessions later in 46 cases, or 52%, with a median change of +0.5%. That is history, not a forecast.
Market data: The Rio Times
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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