Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 28, 2025
Brazil’s markets open with the Ibovespa anchored near record highs on Fed cut bets (~83% December odds) and a softer dollar, but fiscal and structural clouds gather.
October delivered a solid R$36.5 bn primary surplus on strong revenues, yet mandatory spending (pensions +410% court payments) keeps eroding the 2025 zero-deficit goal.
A quiet demographic shock is accelerating: fertility ~1.5 will halt population growth within 20 years, swelling retirees against a shrinking workforce and threatening pension collapse without urgent retirement-age and education reforms.
In energy, Moody’s junk downgrade of Raízen (Shell-Cosan JV) flashes a warning on Brazil’s green transition: heavy debt and volatile sugar/ethanol prices are forcing capital injections and asset sales, lifting sector borrowing costs.
Today’s focus: 06:30 AM BRT fiscal accounts (debt/GDP ratios, budget balance) and 07:00 AM BRT Unemployment Rate (cons. 5.5%, prev. 5.6%).
Weaker jobs would ease wage pressures and open room for Selic cuts in 2026; wider deficits would steepen DI rates and cap the Ibovespa.
Thin U.S. holiday liquidity will amplify any EZ inflation surprises (German/French CPI this morning) that could further weaken the euro and boost LatAm carry.
All eyes on whether fiscal leaks, demographics and Raízen’s warning finally dent the market’s remarkable calm above 158k.
Economic Agenda for November 28, 2025
Brazil
- 06:30 AM BRT – Budget Balance (Oct) Prev: -102.185B
- 06:30 AM BRT – Budget Surplus (Oct) Prev: -17.452B
- 06:30 AM BRT – Gross Debt-to-GDP ratio (Oct) Prev: 78.1%
- 06:30 AM BRT – Net Debt-to-GDP ratio (Oct) Prev: 64.8%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Oct) Cons: 5.5% Prev: 5.6%
Implication: Fiscal slippage or unemployment rise could delay Selic relief; beats support cyclicals.
Mexico
- 07:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Oct) Prev: 2.70%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Oct) Cons: 2.80% Prev: 3.00%
- 14:00 PM BRT – Fiscal Balance (Oct) Prev: -198.11B
United States
- All Day – Holiday: Thanksgiving Friday (early close 13:00 ET)
Europe (selected key events)
- 02:45 AM BRT – French CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: -0.1% Prev: 0.1%
- 03:00 AM BRT – Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) Prev: 2.5%
- 08:00 AM BRT – German CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: -0.2% Prev: 0.3%
- 08:00 AM BRT – German CPI (YoY (Nov) Cons: 2.4% Prev: 2.3%
Japan (selected key events)
- 00:00 AM BRT – Construction Orders YoY Act: -10.1%
- 00:00 AM BRT – Housing Starts YoY Act: 3.2%
Why These Events Matter
Brazil’s fiscal and labour prints will test tolerance for spending leaks and cooling growth. Thin U.S. volumes + EZ inflation data can drive sharp BRL and DI moves. A dovish European morning would reinforce global rate-cut relief and keep EM risk-on alive.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Ibovespa -0.12% to 158,359.76 (new intraday record 158,863.96) in very light holiday volume. October formal job creation only 85,147 (weakest October in series); BCB’s Galípolo reiterated 15% Selic stays restrictive “as long as necessary”.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
Closed for Thanksgiving. Shortened session today (closes 13:00 ET).
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Peso steady ~18.36; S&P/BMV IPC -0.9% to 62,695 on profit-taking.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Peso calm (blue 1,420/1,440); Merval +1.2% to 3,020,019 on banks and utilities.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Peso firm ~3,745–3,750; COLCAP +0.5% (~+50% YTD).
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Peso stronger ~928–930; IPSA +0.8% to new record 10,078.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
Stable near R$5.35 (onshore close 5.3521), locked 5.25–5.45 range on thin liquidity and Galípolo’s hawkish tone.
Cryptocurrencies
Relief rally paused; Bitcoin ~$90,940, market consolidating $87k–$92k.
Companies and Market
October primary surplus R$36.5 bn looks solid but hides surging mandatory spending
Moody’s junk downgrade of Raízen (Shell-Cosan JV) highlights energy-transition debt risks
Demographic shock: fertility ~1.5 → population growth stops in ~20 years → pension crisis looming
Manufacturing stuck below 80% capacity under 15% Selic and excess inventories
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.60% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.70% | -8.52% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.15% | -11.26% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.26 | +6.58% | +46.34% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 45,941 |
| WTI | 91.76 | +5.68% | +40.63% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 361,685 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,046 | -2.43% | +19.21% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 149,977 |
| SILVER | 57.73 | -3.81% | +46.98% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,113 |
| LITHIUM | 68.73 | -0.39% | +58.11% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 106,441 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.21 | +1.48% | +35.07% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,487,200 |
| VALE3 | 75.70 | +0.80% | +31.73% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 12,946,300 |
| SUZB3 | 42.43 | -0.54% | -18.01% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,695,600 |
| KLABIN | 17.68 | -1.39% | -4.46% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,142,000 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.25% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,719,000 |
| ABEV3 | 15.87 | -1.61% | +16.78% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,442,800 |
| ITUB4 | 42.40 | -1.17% | +23.49% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 16,971,500 |
| BBDC4 | 18.77 | -1.05% | +18.20% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 12,996,900 |
| BBAS3 | 20.94 | -0.71% | +3.61% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,679,500 |
| B3SA3 | 15.64 | -1.64% | +16.80% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 27,887,800 |
| WEGE3 | 45.16 | -3.38% | +18.76% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,413,800 |
| PRIO3 | 61.14 | +2.29% | +43.96% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,547,300 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.07% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,527,200 |
| AZZA3 | 17.06 | -4.21% | -53.91% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.05 | 1,860,400 |
| CSNA3 | 5.35 | -0.56% | -39.00% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 10,115,600 |
| GGBR4 | 24.24 | +0.75% | +40.71% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,595,100 |
| ENEV3 | 25.65 | -1.23% | +83.35% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,058,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.33 | -1.55% | -24.33% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,126,400 |