Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for November 26, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today with inflation finally edging back inside the Central Bank’s target band for the first time in months.
Foreign direct investment remains robust despite a widening current-account deficit in October, and Itaú Unibanco has quietly increased its stake in digital rival Nubank.
All of this unfolds while President Lula’s political capital continues to erode amid a growing power rift with Congress and shifting public sentiment on the streets.
Today’s key domestic focus is the mid-month inflation reading already released at 07:00 AM BRT: Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.18% (on consensus) and (YoY) falling to 4.49% from 4.94% — a major positive signal that disinflation is resuming and the IPCA-15 is now comfortably inside the 1.5–4.5% target range for 2025.
This strengthens the case that the Central Bank’s recent tightening cycle has worked and reduces the probability of further Selic hikes, supporting lower DI rates and a firmer Ibovespa.
Other notable releases today include Bank Lending (MoM) at 06:30 AM BRT and Foreign Exchange Flows at 12:30 PM BRT, which will provide fresh insights into credit dynamics and capital movements amid the improving inflation backdrop.
Key global prints that will move the dollar and risk appetite include U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Initial Jobless Claims at 08:30 AM BRT, Personal Spending at 10:00 AM BRT, and the Fed Beige Book at 02:00 PM BRT — any further cooling will lock in December Fed cut odds (~83%), weaken the DXY, and boost inflows to EM assets like the BRL.
In Europe, the German 10-Year Bund Auction at 05:30 AM BRT and ECB speeches from Lane (11:05 AM BRT) and Lagarde (12:00 PM BRT) could signal policy divergence, pressuring the EUR if dovish.
Elsewhere, Japan’s BoJ Core CPI at 00:00 UTC (08:54 PM BRT yesterday) hit 2.2% on consensus, supporting yen stability but capping commodity upside.
Singapore’s Industrial Production surged 29.1% year-on-year, highlighting Asia’s manufacturing rebound. New Zealand’s Retail Sales data at 16:45 UTC (01:39 PM BRT) will test consumer resilience following recent rate cuts.
These matter broadly because U.S./ECB cues dominate dollar flows and risk sentiment, while Asian prints underscore global growth divergence that could lift or cap LatAm exports.
Economic Agenda for November 26, 2025
Brazil
- 06:30 AM BRT – Bank lending (MoM) (Oct) Cons: Prev: 1.1%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Nov) Cons: 0.18% Prev: 0.18%
- 07:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (Nov) Cons: 4.49% Prev: 4.94%
- 12:30 PM BRT – Foreign Exchange Flows Cons: Prev: -1.219B
Implication: Inflation inside target reinforces no-hike base case, steepens DI curve lower; lending/flows gauge credit rebound and FDI sustainability amid deficits.
Mexico
- No major releases scheduled today.
Implication: Quiet trading ahead of Banxico minutes, peso eyes U.S. data spillover for nearshoring narrative.
United States
- 08:30 AM BRT – Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) Cons: 0.5% Prev: 2.9%
- 08:30 AM BRT – Initial Jobless Claims Cons: 226K Prev: 220K
- 08:30 AM BRT – Goods Trade Balance (Sep) Cons: -90.00B Prev: -85.50B
Implication: Soft orders/claims cement Fed cuts, dollar weakness aids BRL; wider trade gap tempers growth but boosts EM carry appeal.
Europe
- 05:30 AM BRT – German 10-Year Bund Auction Cons: Prev: 2.620%
- 11:05 AM BRT – ECB’s Lane Speaks
- 12:00 PM BRT – ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Implication: Bund demand tests EZ yields; dovish ECB tones pressure EUR, sustaining LatAm risk-on via lower global rates.
Japan
- 08:54 PM BRT – BoJ Core CPI (YoY) Cons: 2.2% Prev: 2.1%
- 08:54 PM BRT – Leading Index (Sep) Cons: 108.0 Prev: 107.0
- 08:54 PM BRT – BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks
Implication: On-target CPI holds BoJ steady, caps yen rally and commodity bids; stronger leading index signals rebound, indirect EM positive.
Singapore
- 08:54 PM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 9.5% Prev: 16.2%
- 08:54 PM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: -3.5% Prev: 26.4%
Implication: Beat on YoY underscores Asia factory strength, supports regional trade and Brazil’s China-linked exports.
Norway
- 10:54 PM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: Prev: 0.8%
- 10:54 PM BRT – GDP Mainland (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.6%
Implication: Solid overall GDP aids oil sentiment for Petrobras; softer mainland tempers NOK, easing energy import costs.
Switzerland
- Early AM BRT – ZEW Expectations (Nov) Cons: Prev: -7.7
Implication: Sentiment lift could firm CHF safe-haven flows, capping EUR/BRL upside.
India
- 03:24 AM BRT – M3 Money Supply Cons: Prev: 9.3%
Implication: Liquidity gauge influences EM peer yields; steady M3 supports rupee stability and global risk tone.
United Kingdom
- 04:24 AM BRT – Autumn Forecast Statement
Implication: Fiscal outlook shapes BoE path; dovish tilt weakens GBP, aids commodity currencies like BRL.
Canada
- 05:24 AM BRT – Corporate Profits (QoQ) Cons: Prev: -1.7%
Implication: Rebound signals NAFTA resilience, positive for Mexico/Brazil trade; weakness hits CAD/oil.
New Zealand
- 01:39 PM BRT – Core Retail Sales (QoQ) Cons: 0.8% Prev: 0.7%
- 01:39 PM BRT – Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 0.6% Prev: 0.5%
- 01:39 PM BRT – Retail Sales Quarterly Vs. Year Ago (Q3) Cons: Prev: 2.3%
Implication: Strong spending reinforces RBNZ pause, boosts AUD/NZD sentiment spillover to EM.
Australia
- 04:24 PM BRT – Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: 0.6% Prev: 0.2%
- 04:24 PM BRT – Building Capital Expenditure (MoM) (Q3) Cons: Prev: 0.2%
- 04:24 PM BRT – Plant/Machinery Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: Prev: 0.3%
Implication: Capex beat fuels RBA hold bets, firms AUD and commodity demand for Vale/Petrobras.
South Korea
- 04:54 PM BRT – Interest Rate Decision (Nov) Cons: Prev: 2.50%
- 04:54 PM BRT – Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board’s Policy Setting Meeting Dates (MoM)
Implication: Steady rates maintain won stability; forward guidance eyes China slowdown risks.
China
- 05:24 PM BRT – Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Oct) Cons: Prev: 3.2%
Implication: Profit trends gauge stimulus efficacy, critical for Brazil’s soy/iron ore exports.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI success mutes fiscal/political risks and draws carry trades; U.S. data locks global rate relief for Ibovespa push above 156k, while Asian/European cues highlight growth divergence that bolsters Brazil’s relative EM appeal amid FDI inflows.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
The Ibovespa extended its rally, closing up 0.41% at 155,910 points as investors shrugged off political turbulence and focused on falling rate expectations both at home and abroad.
The commercial dollar slipped to R$5.38, reinforcing firm risk appetite toward Brazilian assets. Central Bank officials drove the narrative: Monetary Policy Director Nilton David said a fresh Selic hike is no longer the base case, while Governor Gabriel Galípolo reiterated commitment to returning inflation to the 3% target.
DI futures curves fell sharply, boosting domestic cyclicals and financials. A CNT/MDA survey showed Lula leading 2026 scenarios, but Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro to serve 27-year sentence, tightening measures on ex-generals.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed higher on Tuesday, November 25, with the S&P 500 +0.9% to 6,765.88, Dow +1.4% to 47,112.45, and Nasdaq +0.7% to 23,025.59.
The Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.1% gain on growing December Fed cut expectations (now ~83%). Weak retail and confidence data plus easing bond yields to 4.00% fueled the move.
Tech focus: Alphabet +1.5% on Gemini AI; Nvidia/AMD dipped on Meta chip shift reports. YTD: S&P +15%, Dow +10.7%, Nasdaq +19.2%.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso and blue-chip stocks extended their rally amid a weaker dollar and sustained Fed cut bets; the S&P/BMV IPC continued its upward trajectory with firm risk-on sentiment, supported by inflation at 3.61% headline/4.32% core.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
The Argentine peso and the Merval rebounded as markets tested the government’s debt strategy and looked for signs of policy continuity, with official wholesale at 1,424 ARS/USD amid narrow ranges.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso and local stocks rode the wave of official dollar sales while markets eyed a potential turning point in monetary policy, with TRM at 3,804.09/USD defying DXY strength.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chilean assets rode the copper boom and Fed cut hopes, with the peso firming near 939/USD and the IPSA nearing 10,000 on healthy consolidation post-rally.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real strengthened slightly, with the commercial dollar closing around R$5.38 as global rate-cut momentum and local disinflation hopes outweighed political noise. High Selic carry and improving inflation optics continue to attract flows; technicals bias firm with support at 5.35.
Cryptocurrencies
Crypto markets paused after a brutal November, with Bitcoin struggling below $90,000 and the broader sector consolidating amid reduced ETF inflows ($3.5B net redemptions) and year-end book squaring; altcoins mixed, sentiment in extreme fear but Dec cut bets aid rotation.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s solar surge continues but grid strains curtail output, challenging utilities; agribusiness eyes export relief. Consumer confidence holds on disinflation, but fiscal probes loom for state firms.
Iberdrola tightens grip on Brazil via Neoenergia consolidation, accelerating B3 delistings of champions.
Key Developments
Brazil becomes an FDI magnet even as external deficits deepen in 2025: October current-account gap widened to a larger deficit but was offset by robust capital inflows ($10.67B+ FDI prev.), with Central Bank introducing new crypto-asset rules to bolster financial stability.
Brazil’s market edges inflation back inside Central Bank target: Mid-month November CPI (YoY) at 4.49% marks entry into 1.5–4.5% band, validating BCB hikes and easing Selic pressure.
Brazil’s biggest bank quietly bets on its digital rival Nubank: Itaú Unibanco raised stake in Nubank, now LatAm’s top-valued fintech, signaling convergence in banking models.
Power rift in Brasília — how Lula lost his grip on Congress and the streets began to shift: Lula’s Senate bypass for Supreme Court pick sparked fiscal bomb threats and anti-corruption clashes, eroding his majority and fueling street shifts on spending/corruption fatigue ahead of 2026.
Iberdrola tightens its grip on Brazil as B3 loses listed champions: The Spanish utility continues consolidating control of Neoenergia and other assets, contributing to the ongoing delisting trend on the B3.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
-0.62%
176,444.54
-0.62%
67,298.78
+0.88%
10,924.91
-0.77%
3,340,763
-1.15%
2,298.59
+0.07%
57,575.02
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,444.54 | -0.62% | +30.58% | 177,547.57 | 177,896 | 176,293 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.09 | +0.68% | -8.54% | 5.05 | 5.09 | 5.04 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.79 | -0.15% | -11.26% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.76 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.15 | +6.46% | +46.18% | 94.07 | 102.01 | 94.88 | 45,985 |
| WTI | 91.67 | +5.57% | +40.49% | 86.83 | 93.50 | 87.32 | 362,264 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.76% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,046 | -2.45% | +19.19% | 4,147 | 4,144 | 4,043 | 150,094 |
| SILVER | 57.73 | -3.81% | +46.98% | 60.02 | 60.36 | 57.32 | 33,155 |
| LITHIUM | 68.80 | -0.29% | +58.27% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 108,690 |
| SOY | 1,241 | +0.65% | +23.39% | 1,233 | 1,250 | 1,236 | 141,251 |
| CORN | 486.75 | +5.36% | +22.15% | 462.00 | 490.25 | 483.00 | 212,025 |
| WHEAT | 694.50 | -1.59% | +28.49% | 705.75 | 710.25 | 693.00 | 73,588 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +3.12% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | 12,910 |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -9.61% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | 42,689 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -56.77% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | 371 |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +22.38% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -2.44% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +2.59% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -36.41% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | 13,283 |
| PETR4 | 43.20 | +1.46% | +34.92% | 42.58 | 43.49 | 43.10 | 17,755,100 |
| VALE3 | 75.66 | +0.75% | +31.77% | 75.10 | 77.07 | 74.51 | 13,009,400 |
| SUZB3 | 42.41 | -0.59% | -18.05% | 42.66 | 42.82 | 41.78 | 1,727,100 |
| KLABIN | 17.68 | -1.39% | -4.62% | 17.93 | 17.92 | 17.41 | 3,142,000 |
| SLCE3 | 13.75 | -1.50% | -14.13% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.72 | 1,731,500 |
| ABEV3 | 15.86 | -1.67% | +16.70% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 12,572,400 |
| ITUB4 | 42.42 | -1.12% | +23.52% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 17,081,500 |
| BBDC4 | 18.79 | -0.95% | +18.32% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 13,231,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.94 | -0.71% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 21.08 | 20.78 | 15,679,500 |
| B3SA3 | 15.64 | -1.64% | +16.80% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 27,887,800 |
| WEGE3 | 45.16 | -3.38% | +18.81% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 10,564,800 |
| PRIO3 | 61.14 | +2.29% | +43.82% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.56 | 4,547,300 |
| RENT3 | 36.99 | -0.40% | +2.07% | 37.14 | 37.19 | 36.03 | 11,527,200 |
| AZZA3 | 17.08 | -4.10% | -54.09% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.05 | 1,910,500 |
| CSNA3 | 5.35 | -0.56% | -39.00% | 5.38 | 5.61 | 5.32 | 10,115,600 |
| GGBR4 | 24.26 | +0.83% | +40.94% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 5,698,800 |
| ENEV3 | 25.65 | -1.23% | +83.13% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 2,058,900 |
| LREN3 | 13.33 | -1.55% | -24.45% | 13.54 | 13.48 | 13.23 | 5,126,400 |